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Dave Kightley

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    Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dave kightley

    Although things sound hopeful. I'm sure the charts are programmed this time of year to make an excuse for national newspapers to make stupid headlines blum.gif

    James madden website is very quiet at the moment... I wonder if he's praying that the sun doesnt come out this winter with his Very heavy snow larky

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dave kightley

    well no stella run but better-

    The GFS is handling the system over the central states at 130 totally different to the ECM- the ECM holds it as one & moves it up to the canadian maritimes, where as the GFS splits it & ejects a shortwave east off the coast - ensuring that no ridging can get going North-

    Pity because the AO index & 180 will be the lowest reading of the winter-

    S

    nice end to the run though steve. shame high pressure builds back in right at the end?

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dave kightley

    GFS ens still showing a cooling down period around the 13th-15th... as some people have said of the possiblitty of cold zonality. 12z showing a weaking p.v and height rise over the artic. things will take time to happen but the signs are there. cold zonality can't be a bad thing if it leads to something better down the line?

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    was the 14th November yesterday when I made that post, 15th today. Am a bit confused really, seeing as December doesnt come in to the high res or even the low res outputs of either the GFS/UKMO or ECM yet, that there are fellas who are being told in no uncertain terms that a change isnt possible

    The CFS charts do suggest a continuation, but they are at that range hit and miss. They could be right but my feeling is that if they were always correct, the Met office would not have abandoned seasonal forecasting. Were right about december last year, but I seem to remember they showed a strong signal for a cold November for a long time and that hasnt materialised at all for a start

    Have been some hints of a change in the ensemble and later chart outputs, which have been perhaps a bit more louder in the last day or so than they have been, though I personally dont expect anything notably cold before the month is out. But to write off december I think is ludicrous at this point. The difficulty with places like these is that many people take things only on face value and perhaps overlook that small changes in the short-medium term can cause big changes upstream. The normal reliability rule with models is about T120 as a cut off point normally, with a absolute max of T240 for a default sou' westerly or for a notably stubborn pattern. About 10 days at the very most, which doesnt cover the whole of the rest of this month. After then it's trends only, and for me they have been a bit more mixed lately than they have been

    look at the gfs run 00z... sums up what your saying pretty much

    Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

    I wonder if people can spot the theme here... trough to our west, ridge to our east (this time extending as far west as the UK), anomalously low heights to our north.

    With the Pacific wavelength more or less set, little is going to shift this until we get into deep winter and the wavelengths bring about the change.

    When do you think this will happen? in january?

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