ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
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Posts posted by ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
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GfS ensembles are certainly going for milder unsettled weather from next weekend. Quite a few spikes appearing together with the rise in 850’s.
Hope they’re wrong and we manage to get a high pressure cell somewhere close instead. Could do without the extra rainfall certainly!
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Is this the Met Office extended debate chat ?
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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:The UKMO at 168 is a beaut.
Could be seeing double digit minima for areas with abundant snow cover
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Hope the
️ doesn’t jinx the models this afternoon!
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It should drop below 2c if the cold Northerly happens in a few days time. Looking at a few ice days for sure.
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8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
This
to this in 5 days…
Ouch
Lack of data
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The mean will do nicely thank you.
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No point viewing the charts until Sunday.
Too early to micro analyse such a complex situation.
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4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
I don't think the mild sector has stayed to the south
Too early to be confident of the positioning and 850’s. Look at how high ECM was predicting this week’s 850’s until the last minute!
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1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
No way ecm day 7..it's horrible
How do you mean ? It has the snow potential!
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Just now, RainAllNight said:
I don't know what this means
This is great. We want an elongated low so the mild sector stays to the South instead of mixing the uppers readily!
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Let’s hope this evenings ECM is kind to us down South in lowland. Need 850’s of below -2c as a max, but ideally -5c and below.
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The current GFS op has over 24 hours of decent snowfall over parts of Southern Britain!
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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Last evenings ensembles show that the 18z GFS op was on the mild side for both London and Oslo in the crucial medium term and therefore being over-progressive.
Will be interesting to see if some of that has reduced this morning ?
The good news is that the GFS is less progressive this morning! The Op is no longer a mild outlier in the medium frame. This bodes well for snow chances further South!
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Last evenings ensembles show that the 18z GFS op was on the mild side for both London and Oslo in the crucial medium term and therefore being over-progressive.
Will be interesting to see if some of that has reduced this morning ?
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Look forward to the Met updates at the weekend hopefully for the jackpot down South
The South is in the game if the GFs 0z run is to be believed.
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1 minute ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
UKMO D7…all the ingredients for a snowstorm shortly after at D8.
I’d say if you’re in the Midlands you’ve got a good chance of a decent snowfall next week.
No one knows yet where exactly it could be.
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23 minutes ago, Derecho said:
The more experienced people in here will remember January 2013 when it was dragged kicking and screaming into a cold spell at T48. That was fun!
I can’t remember it as it was a long time ago
The last proper snow down here!!
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Very disappointing Op and Control runs on the GFS 12z.
Praying for a change of fortune come the morning!
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4 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:
I am due to travel from Nottingham to Hemel to attend a funeral of a relative on the morning of the 19th
If these charts come close to fruition, I doubt very much I would get there!
Stunning charts this morning - Thanks to all who contribute so much of their time and knowledge to this forum
Just hope the weather stays cold enough for any snowfall not to melt quickly to exacerbate the flooding issues in the South East!
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2 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:
Latest GEFS in FI territory does have a whiff of reality about. It feels very much like any serious opportunity is slipping away from us in the South. A chance of some snow before it turns to rain after the weekend, then after a 2-4 day battle up north, usual service resumes for everyone but Scotland.
I think the GFS is being a tad progressive in blowing away the cold pool over NW’ Europe.
But we will see…
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Somewhere’s gonna hit the jackpot!
High stakes high reward!
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
There’s still a few members moving the low for next week further North bringing rain to London. So there’s still a chance the Low could follow an optimal path for us to deliver something!
Nice finish to the ECM run prolonging the cold spell unlike GFs.