blizzard81
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Posts posted by blizzard81
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I must admit it has been incredibly negative on this thread tonight. I remember the winter's of the 80's and the vast majority of the Decembers
were mild & mundane only to be followed by very cold periods in the following 2 or 3 months. For what it's worth, we are only 6 days in to Winter proper, cmon - perspective!!
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This has been my view throughout, but if you want to be optimistic, then focus on January 1-5 for change to take place and then the week or two weeks after that for colder weather to become more dominant. From my perspective, this colder period has potential to be fairly productive, but I don't think it would dig in for the entire winter. In the shorter term, I would be surprised if this current pattern shows much tendency to break down before 28-30 Dec. Although a slight regional variation is likely, the pattern looks so mild that the cooler southeast may be just a weak variation based on a few colder nights. I don't see much chance of a strong inversion developing given that the near continent will be snow-free, Holland could catch some of Germany's chill perhaps.
Anyway, if you had to have one month very mild out of the three main winter months, it might as well be December when people have a lot of travel and shopping plans. At least it's good for the economy.
Bottom line, month from now, much more to see.
Boooo!! Hope you are wrong (about the December bit anyway
) Judging by most of the model output tonight though, you are lookingin a very strong position right now. However, things can change fast and very dramatically!!
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I know this is going against model guidance at the moment but I personally don't think things are as certain as most believe.
I think the week leading up to Xmas will be far more interesting than the models are showing at the moment. I am talking from a
coldies perspective of course. The reason I say this is because of the arctic high which is showing it's hand in the more or less
reliable time frame of the next 4 or 5 days. I have been led to believe that modelling is at it's weakest in the arctic and surely
this weakness must increase in the longer range, ie, 5 days plus. The arctic high is shown to be quite robust in the next few days
and ridging in our direction but once we get to 6 - 7 days out, it retreats. Maybe the weakness in the models in this area is leading us
up the wrong path and in actual fact as we near the time, the arctic high will carry on ridging in our direction. This would lead us to a totally
different (more favourable for coldies) synoptic set up as we approach Xmas. That's my straw clutch anyway!!
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It does at face value, but look at the scatter in the ensembles on the warmer side and the general agreement with the colder members... it's there if you squint.
It does at face value, but look at the scatter in the ensembles on the warmer side and the general agreement with the colder members... it's there if you squint.
That's a very good point, I see exactly what you mean.
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Does that not show the ECM op as a clear cold outlier for London?
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I think it is almost fair to say that based on all the output tonight, the UK is in for a glorified toppler of sorts.
At least it will feel festive with some moderate frosts setting in under clear skies and temperatures struggling
through the day - always nice in December. I think things could get a little more interesting as we head towards
mid-december as we draw in some cold uppers from the east - from there I think we maybe in with a greater chance of retrogression
to Greenland.
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Was this date by any chance a Satuday as I was at Christmas Fair in the afternoon one December in the late sixties with my parents and the drive home was really exciting for me with a very stormy sky and about 8 inches of snow with more falling.
I could never remember blacker cloud in winter with lots of white rag cloud in front of it until November/ December 2010 came along
I would say you are talking about the same year as the 8th Dec was a Friday.
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I am going to make a prediction here and I wouldn't class it as a bold prediction either!
The ECM is barking up the wrong tree as in most cases it tends to over exaggerate height
rises to our north west. I rate ECM as the best model out there but on almost every occasion,
it is out performed by the GFS with regards to modelling pressure patterns to the south of Greenland.
I have noticed this over a period of the last 8 years or so. So there, I have nailed my colours to the mast.
We will see what the morning brings.
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I can't see a Bartlett?
You beat me to it, my thoughts exactly.
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And theres me - glass half full, analysing the 72hr fax chart and comparing it to the much better 84hr chart
and not realising that it is actually snowing moderately here - right now!! Message being - enjoy the cold while
it is here instead of worrying about possible downgrades days ahead.
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WOW !! just about sums tomorrow up, what a mess !!
A very nice mess though - from a selfish point of view
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Norton Lees area of Sheffield
Quite moderate snow here in Dewsbury
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Your comment amuses me Nick. Have you the foggiest idea what it is like in a rapidly changing situation in the Exeter forecast room. I am sure Ian F can explain the current set up but I remember when this kind of situation occurred and trying to get hold of the duty BBC forecaster with no phone in the studio is not easy nor is there likely to be time between deciding to issue a new Fax chart and grabbing hold of him before he/she disappears either into the newsroom or the studio. Give em a chance mate.
Hi John, hope you don't mind me jumping in here. This is why I mentioned earlier that maybe the forecast should be aired later so that they
have time to digest the 12z suite. Surely we can manage that in this day and age.
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ECM has extended the cold spell at least until Friday this evening.
Remember what it was predicting for Friday a couple of days ago...
Fantastic post. People are very quick to slate the gfs but this post really does expose the ecm,s frailties recently.
The difference between the two charts is stark to say the least.
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Just seen the BBC forecast for the week ahead which is going firmly with the UKMO output and showing a stronger easterly flow on Wednesday driving snow showers inland.
This is another example i feel that the bbc forecasts are a little out of date. This forecast was surely done with the 00z ukmo input in mind
as opposed to the updated 12z. I feel this is unacceptable, especially for a week ahead forecast. I don't know whether it's because they do not
have time to digest the 12z suite before the forecast but if this is the case, then it should be aired later so that they do have time.
Should also point out that I am mainly referring to the 12z fax charts and also 12z ukmo in terms of the much watered down
mid week easterly.
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Simply put: because it's not data input to NWP and hence has no bearing on model output discussed here. Didn't mean to appear rude. Cheers!
Hi Ian, your reply was not rude at all.
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Blizzard 1 I wont really add on the solar flares- it doesnt come up in thread very often, as I guess its knowledge limits around individual solar events having a direct effect on the mean speed of the jet-
Obviously we comment on low sunpsot years & high solar activity- but thats it im afraid...
S
Thanks for the reply Steve, much appreciated.
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Solar flares have nothing to do with the nwp. They should be discussed in another thread and are quite frankly off topic in this particular thread. Put the solar flare stuff somewhere else and feel free to go nuts discussing everything from the impact of solar flares on tropospheric conditions and even the impact of the iluminati and the lizard people who David Icke says rule the world, just not here.
At the end of the day, we use the NWP as a means of deciphering what type of weather is coming our way.
All sorts of factors affect this ( the strat being the hot topic at the moment). Solar activity is just another factor, so why
should we not discuss this? By the way, it would have been nice to have an intelligent reply instead of sarcasm.
My original post was directed at Steve M, not yourself.
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It's bizarre, for sure. How has all that stuff crept into discussion?
Hello Ian, I must admit, I am a little suprised by your apparent dismissive attitude to solar activity.
I understand the arguments that this may be more appropriate in another thread but at the end of the
day, everything is inter related in this science. How many times have people mentioned the strat over the
last week or so in this thread? This has been mentioned because of it's obvious effects on our weather and
is understood more than solar activity but I would argue that the sun probably affects our weather more so.
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The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.
This is exactly the sort of reply that stops people commenting on threads like this. Fortunately, I am not like most people, so
I will not be deterred from offering my thoughts!!
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Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS
Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z
Nothing on the ECM.
Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-
Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-
http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm
or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading
http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london
1 cold day -
Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-
or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK...
Of the 2 OPS so far tonight- the UKMO shows the most promise at day 6 with the CAA over southern scandi orientated at a nicer angle.
So if people want to hope that a change is made thats the model to go for-
As for ignore ALL models- hum-I doubt it- Is the GFS swinging about at 140 with wild changes - No its slowley getting close to the mid term solution & im afraid that aint much cop for us.-
However a second wave as depicted on the 06z GFS may work...
Hi steve, what are your thoughts on the recent comments with regards to increased solar flares over the next three days?
Do the models take this into account? I have definitely noticed a correlation between sunspot activity and effects on our weather
in terms of increased west to east energy when solar activity increases.
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chionmanic just a quick question not sure what thread to stick it in ,we currently now have a m- class solar flare being forecast , do youthink this may have an impact if any on the current warming ? just there are some thoughts on how solar activity impacts HLB
I must admit, this worries me a great deal with regards to scuppering the possible upcoming cold spell.
If I remember correctly, Glacier Point suggested that increased solar activity could have been one of the main
factors which contributed to the failed cold spell back in December. It would be great to hear what GP thinks of this
latest increase in solar flares and what impact (if any) it will have on the weather.
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I think everyone is mentally exhausted after the last three weeks but the 18z ensembles certainly raise a few eyebrows at very short notice!!
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Whats going on here then? Thats one messy fax.
Going to save that as the 120hr faxes can be completely way off the mark. I hope this one is correct as it looks good from a coldies perspective.
) Judging by most of the model output tonight though, you are looking
Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Certainly not denial on my part. I have been here for many years - yes, mainly as a lurker but nonetheless wise in the knowledge never to take
the models predictions at face value - whether that be v cold or v mild. The result is almost invariably somewhere inbetween. Keep the faith.