blizzard81
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Posts posted by blizzard81
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For next week, the models (more specifically the ECM) are showing something very similar (almost identical) to the synoptics
of early November 2009 with lows tracking on a south east trajectory through the British Isles and pressure gradually rising
to the north east. The great winter that followed didn't really kick in here until the 17th December. I wonder if the same sort
of thing happens this year but around 3 weeks earlier - say end of November!!
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Edited shortly after to this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:
After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently.
UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2012:
This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.
Updated: 1230 on Mon 6 Feb 2012
The reason is simple, Darren Betts exterminated the duty forecaster and got his wicked hands on the controls!!
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Did anyone see look north weather? If so, what did they say?
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I'm not shaw but I really would take them with a pinch of salt. Didn't they have most of us down for light snow on tuesday?
Good point, yes I think they did
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Yes it's based on latest model output, fax charts and knowledge of these scenario's. Obviously by tomorrow the main risk area could be somewhere else
Sorry, I meant are the bbc 5 dayers based on the ukmo 12z?
To be honest I wouldn't worry about that, it wouldn't be the first time he has been wrong
Ha ha, classic!!!
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Latest update from Michael Fish suggests that the worst affected areas will be East Anglia and the South East, with little or no mention of anything too significant for us! :S
And which model is he using??
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BBC 5 days are automated rubbish...
Thanks for the reply. Yes I have heard other people mention this but I thought it was based on the ukmo 12z raw output.
Do you know if that is the case?
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This is where I am currently expecting the heaviest falls of snow saturday/sunday
In the red zone I'm expecting widely 7-15cm. (Due to the marginalty of this situation heaviest accumulations will be restricted to above 100m)
In the orange zone 5-10cm. (Down to sea Level)
In the Yellow zone 1-5cm. (Down to sea Level)
I expect that narrow red strip to get the heaviest accumulations due to an abundance of moisture pushing in from the north west and marginal uppers, this will only aid precipitation and I would expect to see some locally huge flakes associated with snowfall at marginal temperatures (could be some good hourly snow rates
).The orange zone should also see some intense periods of snow, less in the north east at first but as the front backs west on sunday and grinds to a halt, this area should be set for a good period of snow. With long periods of moderate snow in the linconshire area saturday/sunday.
The western part of the yellow zone will probably be too marginal for the highest totals of snow, the wet nature of it should restrict snow totals (But a shift west in the charts again could very well change this ; ).) And in the southern part of this zone I think the front should be weakening with mainly light perhaps moderate at times accumulations, so not expecting too much here.
Sorry about my map been a bit sketchy, was the only map I could find and had to use paint.
Attached Thumbnails
Don't look at the bbc 5 dayers then, very dissapointing Are these based on the ukmo 12hrs output? Was expecting much better.
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Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by blizzard81
Great to see you posting on here again Nick. I always look forward to your balanced and very informative posts. Unless my memory
is deceiving me, I seem to recall the BOM doing extremely well at predicting the cold period of late Nov/early Dec 2010 and also maybe
the cold spells of 2009/10. It seemed to model Scandi highs with a very high degree of accuracy, just like the ECM. The GFS on the
other hand seems to struggle with the modelling of scandi highs but is very good at picking up Greenland blocking.