zubzero
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Posts posted by zubzero
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2 hours ago, RJBingham said:
Snow no go
That's a sad amount off snow in Europe for Mid-Winter
Opps that's snow fall probabilitie still is poor fir Western Europe https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=16
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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Looks like a rabbit on the run
With a turtle on its back
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58 minutes ago, Cymro said:
Can we just have an embargo on talking of SSW for a week and see how happy and merry we all are afterwards? Since the over analysation of the 2018 warming we’ve come to believe this is the be all and end all of UK cold spells when most prolonged cold spells in the UK haven’t actually been the consequence of a split PV and wind reversal!
I wish sometimes SSW did not exist, because soon as it turns mild posts appear proclaiming with out a SSW event winter is over.
My opinion is way to much emphasis is placed on them its just one piece in a 1,000000 and hugely complicated piece jigsaw.
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2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
I guess in this instance you can infer the one from the other
.? It's about average if not slightly below compared to the ens
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=274&y=54&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1
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43 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
EPS mean at day 10 the ECM op seems on the mild end see right.
That's hight anomaly not temperature??
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15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
I think we know it’ll come to nothing, but the icon has a slightly stronger block to the NE at T120 compared to the 12z , with the Atlantic slightly better configured to slide.
You never know? If a similar pattern change like that does occur at some point. It's possible that it may crop up at shortish range.
Worth keeping an 👁 on.
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Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRmeteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...
And p30 has a hurricane like low approaching the Bay of Biscay
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Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRmeteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...
p15 on the GEFS.
The UK has disappeared, as has my shed,roof and fence
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2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:
Not a particularly cold one but it’s an easterly of sorts …
A few positive signs from that, even though the vortex of doom is raging away. Is heights finally falling to the south and things settling down with frost 'n' fog returning.
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52 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Not long to go now so enjoy my 2022 weather round up and a bit of me playing cricket (won't do my forecast for now as I'm running out of charge). Happy New Year everyone and here's to a great 2023 hopefully
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Great vid thanks.
The 40C in July was historic and even though I'm not a heat lover, to experience 40C was the the most epic weather event Ive experienced. Happy New year, here's to -40C and 40inch of snow in 2023
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The heights to the south are relentless, is a brief glimmer off hope in the 18z gfs of them ridgeing north but are soon flattened and its back to square one
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https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0
It's New-years day not pancake day GFS, is flat as a pancake.
Happy New year
To you all 
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17 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.
It tells you here
Unified Model
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKThe Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications.Hope that helps.
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You can use the argument that a cold spell can soon appear and I agree, but to each example of a cold spell appearing out of no where,there are 10 that show it wiping out a month of Winter with wind and rain, as that's the default winter pattern for the UK.
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Cold zonality don't exist for most of the population. A ture polar northwesterly is more rare then an easterly.
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12 hours ago, jmp223 said:
Bog standard mild winter, cold snap in second week of December and it came to nothing. Nothing on the horizon either if honest the amplified jet due to the activity over the US will just bring us wind and rain, rinse and repeat. Cant see the MJO even in phase 7 being able to topple the influence of la nina. very disappointing.
The cold spell, not snap was far from bog standard a week+ of ice days with night temperatures of -10C at night I low land England is very cold and probably about once a decade chance of happening on average.
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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:
The first attempt is now guaranteed to be Fizzler (minor warming), however, the secondary warming is coming hot on its heels, it could be we need a few attempts, there's a small cluster on the EC 46 going for a late Jan SSW - analogues for this - 91,09. and 12 - i think anything remotely wintry for South UK gone pretty much for first 2 thirds of Jan but i don't subscribe to the view that Feb is a bust for cold just because its a nina year.
I'm not signalling you out. But that's a odd aspect of model output. We don't know with any great detail of what the weather will be like in 7 days let alone 7 weeks. But can write of a month+ of winter in one sentence
. Even in a zonal spell there is still about a 20% chance of cold returning within a 10 day period. If you or anyone could forecast the weather for a month ahead with 50% accuracy you would all be billionaire's.
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Just now, MJB said:
Isn't that what I said ?
After the first week , it is crap end of , you name me a model in the last 10-14 days that could get near the xmas outcome we've just had , it was only within the 120 - 144 range it could pinned down .
EC 46 will show a mass of blocking one week and drop it the following BUT to repeat is no different to any other model
It's not crap at all its your interpretation of the data that is. It's very rare that a data suite will show a very strong signal post 10 days.
If your seeing a mass of blocking by looking at a mean chart in the +168 range, and your interpretation of said chart don't come to fruition what's crap? Your view of the model, or the model?? At a basic level it's done by % chance.
The key is at the bottem.
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11 minutes ago, MJB said:
I used to take note of EC 46 but last year it got absolutely nothing right , it's a crap model BUT what model is good after 168hrs
It's not crap, people take a mean chart in isolation and jump to conclusions. Obviously the futher out the less accurate it becomes but you need to view the entire data suite to get a broad view of the medium range outlook.
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48 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Control at the extreme southern end ref the snow on day 4, a decent event if that came off.
Control at the extreme southern end ref the snow on day 4, a decent event if that came off.
Rain/sleet for most. Buxton for example may see a spell of heavy snow before milder air quickly rushes in from the south west
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/114h.htm
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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
looking at the strat GFS ensembles, it does have the hallmarks of just running out of steam before a technical SSW so slight odds against, unless a secondary warming comes round the back soon after.
Running out off steam and a SSW don't mix as its "sudden" and not gradual warm up.
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Merry Christmas one and all. I'm hoping for a belated present off cold wrapped in snow.
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7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
Is there anybody on here that truly knows what tools they use?
Yes it tells you on the thier website https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:
And there could be a quick strat-trop response
Quick in strat terms is a week at best to affect the surface. Anyway I'm sure the meto don't use strat forecasts in their basic 16-30 day out look. It's a mix off ecm 46 glosea and -decider a mix of various mid term ens.
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
My least favourite weather type, cold rain and windy yuk. + come the time it would be much more modified and snow falling much less widespread than what is shown.