NickR

There is one band behind the first few blobs that might do something... but there isn't the same rash of showers building as last night - just that one strip really.

Doesn't "feel" right tonight - the radar is not convincing me anything more than flurries is going to occur - certainly nothing even close to last night.

Just been looking at them...at the moment seems to be heading S of here - Darlo way possibly. Not sure if conditions will be there overnight for it to pep up more generally.

Bit more to come for here, but I think Newcastle looks best placed for an additional inch!

It is a trough - the Faxes had a clear trough for here at least 72 hrs out.

It was forecast 24 hrs ago, yes... and it's been clear from the models for some time, but not really picked up by the media... and of course not by most posters on NW.

I've got 1023mb here (relative)

Great pic-more than here... how high up are you?

Great picture! Are you using a special lens? or just a macro?

About 20 mins ago:

LOL Not sure I'd say it's the heaviest this year, let alone since 2009/10 - many weeks back I remember it hammering down in Durham. Even so, looks beautiful... TBH it's easy to forget quite how much snow we do get here. One big difference between us and the S is that we tend to have it lying around for longer - not as many instances of snow melting away 1 day after falling.

Only about an inch max here - but lots to come by the looks if it.

Welcome to Durham... it's a fantastic little city!

I didn't say that another poster had called for GFS to be retired. "To curry favour" doesn't mean you say exactly what they do. Your analogy simply backs up what I said in my last post about your ridiculous hyperbole. I know, and it was ludicrous ramping. Just saying that in terms of helpfulness, such exaggeration and lack of measured consideration is not up there, that's all.

Sorry, but this is just hyperbole of the most ridiculous kind and entirely unhelpful. The stats posted simply do not bear this out. Anyone would think you were just trying to curry favour with a certain someone... In terms of your judgement as to the models and weather... aren't you the poster who felt COBRA would have to meet this week?

Many thanks, John. Appreciated.

Do you have a link, John?

THose winds would be Ely rather than SEly - remember the wind direction doesn't exactly follow the isobars.

They are (well, GFS is)... but that's a week away and even so the ENE is mainly for slightly further S. Up here we would be in slacker flow. Of course, the main point is this is FI - in the (semi) reliable,it's a southern event.

Yes, but I was responding to a post which talked about the Eastern half (in general). Keep up.

LOL There's ramping and there's THAT sort of ramping. For much of the E north of the wash this would be pretty nondescript, as it would be for much of the N half of the UK (especially on the UKMO).

All looks very frustrating to me atm in the models... Are we basically just too far N to get much whilst from the wash southwards it's convective heaven? I just think we're too close to the high. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't put it like that TBH. The one we see is the operational... the others are with very slight tweaks. Some people think that having the operational and control in agreement means that is likely, but to be honest, what matters more often than not is not what the operational is showing, but where the majority are headed. If the operational is out on a limb and most of the other runs are clustered around a different solution, then I would generally speaking forget about the operational on that run.

The ensembles are the whole set of runs that the models calculate. Basically they alter the starting conditions VERY slightly and see what that does to the runs. THis creates a big set of possible runs. If the operational (the one we see first - the main one) is supported by a lot of the other runs, then that's a sign it might be on the right track; if it's an outlier (i.e., has little support) then they might suggest caution is needed.. either that or it's a trendsetter! I don't use NW's model viewing page - I use wetterzentrale, meteociel, and weatheronline (expert(, as well as the TWO viewed sometimes. There are links on all of these to the ensembles for London, Manchester, Aberdeen.. and meterociel have clickable maps for ensembles for anywhere.. but I keep forgetting the link for that!

Depends where it sits in the ensembles and what the other runs show... not that I've looked.