NickR

They have got Durham, for example, down as 50mph max gusts, so they seem to be following the models.

Nothing particularly unusual about gusts of up to 70mph (which means most places won't see higher than 50-60mph). It's a bit earlier than usual, but at risk of being overplayed, I think.

Hoping we don't get too badly hit in Durham City... I don't think we're nearly as exposed you guys up there. I'm due to travel to Cardiff by train on MOnday pm, so hoping there won'tn be too many trees down on the line.

It's an exciting time, that's for sure, though the signs are not great for those of us in the northern half of the UK. By the way, am I missing some witty play on words in your signature quotation? I don't get the "patients" bit... is it some hospital joke?

What's your take on how far north those showers will get TWS? GFS has held them off from the NE on almost every run. Any thoughts as to whetehr that line could go further north? More generally., what is it about that line being modelled at the moment as having showers that makes it "prone" whereas the NE/Wash are not?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs783.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs813.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs843.gif A few light showers in the afternoon for NW and maybe E of the PEnnines. Certainly not rain most of the day as you said.

I see nothing but consistency there for the weekend, which was the period SP was addressing.

UKMO, ECM, and GFS all seem to be forecasting a warm/very warm Sunday away from the NW... which models are suggesting a significant downgrade of this?

The lack of on-the-ground reports is woeful, though. On Xmas day Dan C was still blithering on about "temperatures struggling to reach freezing" across northern England, when it was a good 2 or 3 degrees above in NE England and beyond, despite the "0" on his weather map for Newcastle. In fact, here they have consistently over-egged the cold in this spell, frequently forecasting 2 or 3°C lower than was actually reached (day and night). I do wonder sometimes whether they might not learn the lesson and actually look at CURRENT OBSERVATIONS in the run-up to their forecasts. Last night was a case in point. They were forecasting heavy snow and -1°C here, even when the temperature was at 1°C and rising, and clearly not going to plummet. Sorry, but it was a very poor show, and mainly because they seem to have forgotten how to look out of the window, so to speak.