NickR

ECM and now GFS06Z have this much further south and less destructive than the FAX.

Meanwhile tomorrow's storm seems to get worse - especially for W Scotland, NI , and N Eng http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

That's Tuesday's chart. Friday's covers the whole country.

The fact it's not hitting a particular location as much doesn't mean the system has vanished. What a bizarre post. I get the feeling several people in here don't bother looking at the charts, they just type in their location to the forecast generator and that's that.

And similar up north on Thurs/Fri http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs963.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs964.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs993.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs994.gif

True. WHere would that hit most? I'm thinking here in the NE!

Or not, acc to ECM 12Z and GFS 18Z

Downgrade on the 18Z - hope it heralds a downgade all round. much less intense and much more southerly.

ECM out... and it just disappears entirely! From 72 to 96 hrs it just goes... weird evolution. Thoughts?

920mb was an ensemble member, never a main run, I think. GFS still has it at 940, with some scary members. The key run today will be ECM due out soon - if it shows depths of 955/960, then that will be both of the best models for representing such systems showing a slight weakening of the forecast intensity.,

Bit further south, actually: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn10812.png http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn11412.png http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn12012.png

Worst winds on GFS are from S Cumbria/ N Yorkshire down to somewhere around Cambridge. UKMO similar track - i.e., bit further south - but noticeably less deep - around 960mb. GFS does tend to overegg the depth of lows. That said, ECM is around 950 - perhaps a tiny bit further south.

All which is very different from your general, apocalyptic warning, IMO.

Worse for the NW? I'm thinking that, whilst very bad, much of the NE would have less damaging gusts than the NW or higher areas of the NE... in particular where given some protection by other buildings/houses.

To be frank, this is ridiculous and irresponsible without caveats: IF your house is in an exposed location and/or in at some altitude. Many houses are sheltered by other houses and buildings, which would mean they are NOT at risk of such major damage.

06Z has Tuesday's further north by 50-100 miles, so would affect a little further north in terms of high winds.

In set ups like this, what would be the difference between what could be expected gust-wise in Cumbria/NW and the inland NE (other side of the Pennines)? I'm guessing slightly lower in the NE... and in every case, better if you're sheltered from W'ly winds by buildings, etc.

I think it's because most of the attention has been on Friday's system, which is more potent and looks like hitting N England. I haven't seen much talk about Scotland bearing the brunt, especially of Tuesday's storm.

What is this north/south chip on your shoulder?? We're just saying what the models are showing. The south will have strong winds on MOn/Tues, don't you worry - just not in the order of 100mph gusts in London/SE. EDIT: I'm perfectly happy to give you the storm if you want it - I could do without the worry about property and safety.

That's a ridiculous statement. The models are simply not showing 80-100mph gusts for London and the SE. It's as simple as that.

Out of interest, what depth was forecast by GFS for the storm of last week? And what was the actual depth recorded?

Looking at the GFS perturbations: further south and not so intense (still bad to v bad tho!): P1 P2 P3 P7 (this one still very intense - 950mb) P8 P15 P18 further north and more intense: P4 P20 Much further south and nothing too bad: P5 Shooting through quicker and much less intense: P6 P10 P16 Similar to main run: P9 P14 P17 Armageddon: P11 - 925mb, bye bye UK. NOthing much going on: P12 P19 Overall there is a tendency to pull the system slightly further south - worst winds over mids and south. P11... er, let's hope not.

Looking at the GFS perturbations: further south and not so intense (still bad to v bad tho!): P1 P2 P3 P7 (this one still very intense - 950mb) P8 P15 P18 further north and more intense: P4 P20 Much further south and nothing too bad: P5 Shooting through quicker and much less intense: P6 P10 P16 Similar to main run: P9 P14 P17 Armageddon: P11 - 925mb, bye bye UK. NOthing much going on: P12 P19 Overall there is a tendency to pull the system slightly further south - worst winds over mids and south. P11... er, let's hope not.

I'm guessing that even if it does, much of the NE inland would escape the absolute worst, especially areas shielded by buildings.

18Z is very worrying for our region - over 100mph gusts widespread, cumbria and high ground in NE particularly vulnerable to serious damage I would have thought.