NickR

I'd say the worst winds will be in the early hours - so before rush hour

That looks awful for Cumbria... not too hot for the NE either! The more southerly track also means areas further south will get hit hard.

Quite. I'm more worried about my house and surrounding trees than excited by the prospect of 100mph winds!

:blink: You're welcome to it if you want it!

Might be useful to comment... Worst winds over Scotland on the Friday storm as ECM has it on a more northerly track than other models. VERY low - is that 935mb at the centre?

0.3°C on my PWS in Gilesgate Moor.

Yes. The Meto model never looked like being plausible, and it has proved to be wrong for this morning.

GFS says "NO": http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs063.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs093.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs123.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs153.gif

Like next Tuesday? UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif GFS: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.gif NOGAPS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1201.gif

All in all, strong - and very worrying - agreement across the models on another major storm next week: UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif GFS: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.gif NOGAPS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1201.gif

Though it's debateable whether it's worse than 11 years of Thatcher...

Yes. And it's got worse. When I was there there were about 50 murders a weekend in Caracas. YOu wouldn't stop at red lights at night for fear of being carjacked, and there was a reasonable risk sometimes of being "express kidnapped". By the last time I went back (2 and a half years ago) the murder rate had shot up (it's now the murder capital of the world), and kidnaps had become a much worse problem. Despite it all I loved living there... not sure I would now - massive food shortages on top of the crime... that's what 13 years of Chávez does to a country!

see my edit...

Some torrential (tropical) downpours - incredible heavy rain lasting 30 minutes... then back to sunny and hot! I think I remember 1 overcast, dreary day of 22°C and occasional showers. EDIT: The Amazonian region is a different matter - 38%, 100% humidity - absolutely stiffling - like walking into a wall of heat that sucks your breath out of you when you come out of an air-conditioned bar. 2 hrs from Caracas too, down at sea level (though inland), it's 35°C and very humid - not nice with 33°C at night and no fan.

Despite loving the cold and snow and exciting weather... it's amazing how soon yo get very comfortable and happy with a low humidity 32°C every day (24°C on a "cold" January day sometimes) and 24°C at night (a bone-chilling 14°C on occasion in January).

Spent pretty much all my childhood and much of my 20s around Surrey/south London (Kingston-upon-Thames, nr Croydon). Lived for 2 years in Venezuela too. Came to Durham 5 years ago this New Year. Love the city, love the county, love the Pennines, love the region. [Even if the summers are crap!]

I do love living up here! Can't see me ever moving back down south TBH.

I'm goiing to start planning my strategy for convincing my wife a trip to Alston on Saturday with the kids (4yr old and 10 month old) is an absolute must... are there any decent shops in Alston I can use as bait?

Non event here in Durham so far. Gusty, but less so than we've had this year on other occasions. WIll it get stronger yet??

All pretty calm here... I thought this was meant to be the worst time? Winds are light, much less than earlier on. Is it due to fire up later?... confused!

That would be good news. Have you seen the ECM 240 though?

I think the charts and discussion pretty much tell you the answer to your question. It's hidden in your post as well. :winky:

:good:cheers BT.

Fine. But we're not astronomers. As TWS said a while ago - there is no "official" start of winter, and there never has been one. The most common CONVENTIONS are the two mentioned already- the astronomical equinox based definitions (21 December-20 March) and the meteorological definition (1 December-28/29 February). Given that this is a weather site, and that nearly all weather-related statistics use 1 Dec, why on earth would we use the astronomical dates?

Official in what sense? Not in a meteorological sense, that's for sure.