Brum Watcher
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Posts posted by Brum Watcher
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Potential 18z pub run coming i think after T120. The HP is missing? -10's fast approaching from the east....18zzzzz zzzzz zzzzz
Edit: Its gotta be a bottom end op on this run, never the less, nice eye candy of a run.
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Just had a flick thru the GFS ENS and a lot more trending towards extending the cold. Interesting. The op flys above the mean pretty quick in comparison.
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Wow @ the models, there are showing what we wanted to see all winter. All Fi, even then we had not seen what we are seeing in fi now. With some support from ENS and some cross mod agreement, this feels possible. Nice GFS, classic channel low with low uppers cutting into the system. Ecm/ukmo Also nicely poised with similar setup.
Edit: Ecm/ukmo not far off I meant.
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Heavy snow Birmingham. Car roofs covered and grass dusted.
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Ok. night all. U win some u lose some. tonight was a loss...always another day. Goodluck to those staying on.
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Is it me or is there a slight chance of that precipitation pepping up again north of birmingham?? it looks as though it might???
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What a failure. The predicted snow map of the metoffice showed the area with highest risk of snow at this moment in time is in a hole with no further potential. lol. how shameful!!!
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Yes it is now looking real bad for the Mids. Nothing more looking like making it. lol. not even a sugar coating. sadly it was an uncertain event and ended as such.
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Where in Birmingham are you?
East Birmingham. and 5 miles west of airport coming down moderately now.
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AND I can confirm Snowflakes. no sleet or ice. Birmingham now.
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Twitchy bum time for us for the next few hours...will it, or won't it? :wacko:
Well I am confident with the BBC/METO @ the moment over the NAE. NAE has juggled and been misplaced all over the place today. Had Met man on local radio to confirm BBC/METO Forecast...Obv snow is not easily forecasted esp in a situ like this. If it doesnt, It doesnt. Good Luck to wherever gobbles it all.
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The precipitation has now reached a stage predicted by the metoffice to move SSW. And the last two or three radar runs show this happening. plenty of precipitation towards the NE. Radar looking good. And the intensification has begun.
Still light sleet/ice mix in brum at the moment.
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Sleet in Birmingham last 20 mins or so.
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Reports of Snow derby, Nottingham now. it has begun in the East Mids now....
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Where are you?An update for you guys further south, the main preip band is just getting going here and it is snow.
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The more precipitation in East Mids/humber area the more better when it starts moving SW. Perfectly inline with the met update for the mids. Sleet/Snow to spread in from the NE. So IMO the radar is looking good for the Mids/Cen at the moment.
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Ouch downgrades on the accumulation charts too.
but radar looks excellent
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anyone point out the NMM as it stands now??
EDIT; First snow report for the area Bilston, Wolverhampton on the local radio..a good sign.
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BBC downgrades midlands hugely. The latesy forecast shows bits touching Birmingham and nothing at all towards the east. with Wales mentioned upto 6 inches widely.
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Massive downgrade on the BBC forecast. Snow barely touches birmingham never mind anywhere east sadly.
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Except it now has support from the NMM.
Worth noting as well that the NMM intensifies the rain/sleet/snow significantly through the West Midlands, South Wales, Central Southern England and SW England on Friday morning. There could be some very big falls locally going by this output.
Is it possible for you to put both of them on here for comparison?
or anyone else?
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Mainly dry across NE Scotland. The reality will be the rain has already cleared into the N Sea. :lol:
NAE has the front too far NW. Very odd to have this occur at +3.
Well at least looking at it the BBC/METO are not using that NAE model for showing tommorrows chart....
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Just mentioned this in the other thread but I feel its worth mentioning here. Check out the latest NAE below and look at the predicted rainfall across NE Scotland.
Now go and check the radar!
How on earth can the NAE be so wrong at +3!
Ok. Whats the NAE saying for midnight. That would probably make more sense...
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anyone get them NAE charts on here. i aint got clue how to do it myself.
Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS Ens are very very poor in terms of reliable time frame. as early as 48 hours the difference is huge. shocking no idea where to go with them. a spike here a spike there a spike everywhere. looks like an earthquake reading more than anything else.