Brum Watcher
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Posts posted by Brum Watcher
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have the mods opened another thread yet. Significant snow risk etc. As does and is beginnning to look like some places will manage another 3 inches or so.
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Started in Wolverhampton now according to my friends there.
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NAE/BBC have upgraded westward extent. Eadt Wales could also see 10cm now.
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NAE has been an improving picture on every run for the Midlands as a whole rather than just the East. More intense prec and more accum. no doubt will become nowcadt soon. could be even better than that. fings xrossed.
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I have also noticed BBC not inline with the NAE...BBC are progressive by a few hours compared to the NAE...
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NAE uogrades for the Mids. The band comes into wales 6 hours later than previously progged @ midday and leaves the Mids more or less with hardly any rain behind @ 6am. Snowcover sticks out. Interesting. a 6 hour diff is huge on HI RES models.
Edit: wales 6pm instead of midday as previously shown.
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Excellent NAE for the west. a 50 mile ish shift west.
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Interesting Tweet.
@fergieweather @liamdutton - 8KM model from Metra have Leeds to Birmingham & surrounding counties at greatest risk at the mo with >10cm poss
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Intersting ECM out to 168. -4 uppers widely out west and east and a different question being asked i suppose.
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The NAO AND AO dip. massive dip in the forecast for the AO. while seeing ECM unfold.(E)xtremely ©rap (M)odel run at the moment.
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So to sum the run up. It effectively sticks to its guns and this morning the UKMO has virtually joined the ECM. Although at 240, the atlantic returns. At 240 though, who cares right now?
even then there is potential in the t240. thats too far to worry about. Ecm and UKMet same boat now. so realistically the GFS SHOULD start backtracking thru the sat runs. lets see what happens today?
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Look at that V Cold area encroaching from the NW as the temporary G High disappears.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
acceptable run. a cold run. lack of snow and wind though. as it stands beggars cant be choosers.
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NWesterly surely??
yes NW wrapped. cold uppers though next run could be the easterly
edit: NEasterly it is at 192
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To my very un-trained eye, isnt that a booming easterly at t168?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
ALMOST
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GFS ENS improved. The OP is quite clearly one of the very few Mild outliers. interestingly a few extras near -5s and also the mean drops more than its 18z a forward trend from the GFS....
edit: london ensembles particularly
ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
ECM NOW ROLLING, a very important one in years. a good day or bad. fingers and everything else xrossed!!!
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Oh certainly. The only down thing so far this morning is the GFS sticking to its guns. A less good GEM from last night, but counter balanced by an excellent looking UKMO. The ECM is the big one though, if we can keep the cold theme then SURELY through the day or the next 24 hours at most the GFS will have to come in line. Here's hoping anyway. I've not been to bed yet, but ill be around for the ECM 0z. Unhealthy but its the weekend and ive not got university until Wednesday.
dont worry im wid u today....a special mod watch day today if the ECM Persists. but as the UKMO has now 80% ish agreed to the ECM banter aswell as other lesser models, i cannot see the ECM backtracking now...probably an adjustment here and there and maybe watered down a bit more...
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Poor looking GEM though. Can't see a ridge to the NW.
you have to admit ECM bias is on this run compared to the GFS though. a trend which goes towards the ECM more than the GFS.
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http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?14-05
that is good. i haven't seen yesterday evening ukmo yet but thats much better then gfs.ecm is so important now
Yes exc chart. heights towards the NE, ridging also into greenland, a blocked atlantic, that cold north of scotland got only one way to go....
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A better looking UKMO @ t144 though.
yes excellent looking UKMO. backing ECM. now then, the GFS 00z run has to be a mild outlier. No ens support in respect to earlier runs. so is that now ECM, NOGAPS, GEM, JMA, UKMO showing similar charts from the t144+ timeframe...
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after reading the above posts it seems as though GEM, NOGAPS, JMA all trending tiwards the ECM. and even the GFS needle pickingly tried. ECM has only increased the potential throughout the run aswell. MEGA 18z on the cards me think. The Faxes later also.
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My, with all the pressure from other models ECM said bring it on! what a stonker from 168 till then end.....and beyond potentially aswell. So after seeing this id expect GFS make some in roads on the 18z....pub run that can create a fiasco this evening....fingers crossed....
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what is agreeable at the moment is that the ECM ens are totally against the GFS OP and the GFS ens are against the ECM OP. The other Mods are a mere watch and wait in this standoff. The mother of all battles in progress. as it stands this winter 1-0 to the GFS, can the ECM find an equaliser?
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im not very good with understanding the FAX charts. is the t120 in favour of ECM OR GFS. lookong at it looks like support for the ECM to where that HP is, but the fax does show a LP west of ireland, which ECM or GFS dont show. can a knowledgeable one help in explaining the FAX?
Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
New analysis frm UKMO Ch Forecaster keeps bias of main snow threat W Mids, E Wales into W Country, esp Glos, Wilts, Bristol, B&NES, N/NE Som
From Fergie on twitter