Brum Watcher
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Posts posted by Brum Watcher
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18z changes from 240+, hopefully upgrades to heights on later runs, still better seeing yellow all the way thru....
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mamma mia of an ECM, first proper eye candy of winter 11/12...hope it keeps going
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thanks. thats what i was looking for, someone to put me wrong, that 12z to my eye is the mildest output i have seen this winter so far. i know there are some cool/cold shots, but as ever shots are hit and miss. im newish to the models so forgive my lack of knowledge!!!
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whats the best link for ensembles and what time do updates happrn on it? (in learning process)
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another poor run from GFS all the way to the end....MILD is the trend...lack of potential for and 0 uppers never mind -5's.
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GFS T288 is almost (to the eye) same as the ECM T240, GFS trending cooler this run so far....
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had a look at GFS 00z, it has backtracked towards keeoing the cold pattern still further in fi, the ensembles for the 8th jan, why is there a 16c difference between the control and GFS op? (london)
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ECM on the opposite of GFS, can someone advice me why the models are differing so much in output. ECM seem to be on a pattern change and GFS keeps it the way it is now till the end of the run. is this still a mild outlier??
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12z GFS not improved, but backtracking, keeping high over the south UK till the end...cannot see changes in the reliable timeframe either.
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GFS seems to be on a seesaw for a few days now! It is a Mild Outlier on the ensemble charts. so the next few charts will bring a better coloured picture. 18z will be impressive i believe today. Good Old Pub run.
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poooooorrr GFS 00z, thats it, im not looking at the models till the new year now, MERRY XMAS ALL AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR...
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GFS eye candy. changes on the horizon. F1 F1 F1, lol, the trend begins.....
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yep, north mids it looks good for and at the coldest time. b4 10am most prec should be snow. so good luck to all that get this very last chance potentially this year...
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Cheshire Gap ticking and fizzling by the look of it!!
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its the end of the streamer and the end of any potential snow now till Jan...roll on New Year...
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rain rain citu birmingham now
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clouding over since the last 15 mins. Birmingham now
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out of my negativity from last night i think the cheshire gap showers will not make it any further than now...all snow reports on it though, even to lower ground on the NW thread...
The NMM model was showing this potential though yesterday, someone pointed that out to me.
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im not sure. the BBC have the mids on max of 3c today. the 528 dam line is way south. could be interesting in heavier showers...hit and miss though for most!!
and notice the cheshire gap showers die out around or before telford, so nothing really to get excited about, but there is a trough line that will be crossing over the mids/wales in the afternoon ending over the south coast by 00z tonight.
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heavy in mod snow northfield, can anyone explain streamer cheshire gap potential!!!!!
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snowing northfield
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radar seems to losing intensity around the west mids to the eye....time for me to quit hoping and go to bed now for a few hours.....good luck fellow lampost lurkers. lol
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have to say heavy rain Central Birmingham now...
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Heavy rain here in Alvechurch and bbc forecast now down cast to more rain in morning :-(
Not for the Midlands. I saw the forecast, he seemed to be in a rush...
Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS 18z failure...again. no pattern change signal so far looking at it.