weatherguy

Okay I'm gloating a tad now, perhaps I've actually learnt some stuff here in the past few years Bitter cold on its way again. Still could be a stonking run from the 12z....evolution is a bit more complex than the 6z however

198 is looking interesting...maybe get some Scieceland heights/potential easterly further down the line?

Pretty potent looking northerly shot at +180h on the 12Z... But unfortunately upstream isn't as amplified as the 6z, too much energy going over the top to my eye - can see this being a rather transient affair on this run.

Important to remember before the 12Z comes out that it is just one run, like the 6Z was just one run! Will be very interesting to see if the general synoptics are repeated or not. Fingers crossed guys and gals

Wonderful +216 and +240 ECM respectively. Can't say I'm convinced just yet though, model watching recently has felt like reading tarot cards...Can only comment on what the charts show, mind, and this is a textbook 2 pronged attack on the Trop PV, wonderful if it comes off

Dire 216 ECM chart if we're honest. Hopeful it's a mild outlier though, given today's output from the other models.

Holy moley, ECM goes all out with its 240 chart!!! Won't be getting my ramp out just yet however, GFS +240 below for comparison, shows the huge spread in solutions...

We had THAT ECM the other year, here's to hoping THAT GFS doesn't go Pete Tong! (Wishful thinking at +300ish I know, but I've been on the sherry, let a man dream!)

Merry Christmas everyone!

Regardless of specifics for our location (huge spread even at +240), the forecast disruption of the tropospheric vortex can only be a good thing when the it should be approaching its strongest at this time of the year. ECM +24/240 GFS +0/240/384

Is nice. (Yes, I'm back after my rage-induced hibernation from model watching - finally some tangible interest in the medium rather than long term!)

Oh lord. Don't know if it's simply a horrific outlier or not yet, but the 12Z ECM has completely reversed the encouraging trends and sent my optimism into despair. SW-erly blowtorch and a particularly potent PV sat where we don't want it. Grim stuff. Pray for a good set of ensembles!

My post from last night...Seeing this trend continuing today from the 00z ECM. Again, +24/144/240 below. Of course there are some pretty big differences between the +240 charts, but the similarities at +144 are certainly there; the latter run being a tad more amplified and the emerging Russian high being of interest. But, as I suggested before, the key thing is getting that huge core of energy out of Canada as that's exactly where we don't want it to be - it shifts east while the Sceuro high shields us from a prolonged zonal period, energy moves away and the pattern can once again amplify. The potential is certainly there PS - though it's rather silly to look at specifics of a +240h chart, a white christmas would certainly be on the cards on this run

Ugh. Same feeling here for the last month or so of model watching; tangible promise always held at an arm's length away which can get tedious, yet not so much a write off as last year's zonal slogfest which removed the carrot entirely! A better position to be in at face value I suppose. Anywho, 12z ECM does show some promise where looking at the Canadian lobe of the PV. +24/144/240 below. At +24 the broadscale pattern looks very good, but alas a few hundred miles away from delivering true cold to our shores. Without retrogression of the HP to the NW, and with those nasty deep purples over Canada, things would be looking pretty grim. What's good though is that, while the ridging on the Pacific side of things does subside, energy is allowed to move out of Canada while the close proximity of the Euro High spares us a zonal train. Note by +240, low heights are kept in play over the med, the Canadian lobe is looking a bit less "woken up at 4am by a prank caller" angry, and there is still some degree of HLB dotted around the NH, keeping the spokes of the PV-wheel clanging along out of rhythm. So in summary; by +240h, the NH profile is somewhat worse than present, but being unable to capitalise on this current scenario, the progression is a good one. No true cold imminent, but neither a zonal mush - cool and reasonably dry looks the form horse, with hopefully some more interesting stuff on offer beyond the D10 period. Hope this analysis has helped some

Incredible NH synoptics. Incredibly infuriating to end up with the mild stuff from this.

Late to the party, somewhat surprised to see such negativity around. Yes, I know it's frustrating how any promise seems to be stuck in the far reaches of FI, but we can only really comment on what the models are showing...And what they're showing is, dare I say it, potential. +288 GFS 12z for example, we actually have a PV that looks like it went through 12 rounds of rope-a-dope with Mohammed Ali, with a GH and Pacific Ridge being on the cusp of connecting. Pretty dreamy synoptics. Yes it's FI and, given the recent trends, unlikely to come to fruition at the posited timeframe, but there's certainly no need for the prozac! Looks a pretty good chart tbh, PV pretty much split, plenty of cold to tap into from the east, enough energy to the west to allow undercutting at some point but not a super-canadian vortex to wipe the floor with any fledging MLB to the west.

Looking more broadly, and less so at the fine detail of a hundred miles here or there which will largely determine what setup the UK finds itself in in a week's time, this is one impressive looking Arctic High showing on the ECM at +216,

Nice looking +168h ECM...under she goes? Edit: Not quite, be interesting to see where it goes from here though....

I did say it was extreme FI! Was just such a nice chart it was worth posting, nonetheless Encouraging signs from the GFS as it trends towards a less progressive solution today, still a way to go though if we are to get some proper UK cold. All eyes on the ECM next up.

I know it's pointless getting excited about extreme FI, but lookey here at +384h... Stonking chart! First modelled significant cold spell I can think of so far this month, which is encouraging.

Decided to take off my grumpy cap tonight and be a tad more optimistic when looking at the 12z ECM, blame model fatigue for that! The +240h is absolutely full of potential: The PV has that "H" shape to it, with heights from our end and the Pacific side extending to the Arctic, where the final lines of the PV await. Extremely -AO looks the likely progression of this from the broader perspective. Potentially good for us, but not a surefire thing of course. Looking closer in our neck of the woods... The angle of attack in the Atlantic is looking good as energy doesn't look like it has the capacity to flatten the developing ridge (+216 and +240 for reference below). The base of the Atlantic trough becomes much sharper edged, and as such the feature looks primed to extend north, eventually, and hopefully, with one of those LP features sliding SE and opening up the prospect of cold slipping behind from the east. Plenty to be positive about here folks, lets see what the 18z has to offer

Not much analysis here but thought it's worth showing the current state of affairs to the +384 6z GFS... It's like a mirror image, look at that beasty Canadian PV lobe

It certainly shows "Jack" something Seriously though, hoping a brief milder spell is what we need to shake up the pattern and give us a chance at something better in the medium term - we've been stuck consistently on the mild side of amplitude across the atlantic with a series of slider lows and ridging being pretty darn consistent with placement of the cold over and again. While the NH synoptics have been good, it was just set up badly for the UK. We start again.

Hmm, anyone seen any good BBQs on sale this Black Friday? Asking for a friend.

Looking at the +240 of the gfs12z, as that's about the limit of any degree of certainty... Same old story from the last couple of weeks of model-watching; Great NH pattern overall, looking at the completely battered PV and lack of any lobes hanging about over Greenland. However, things just don't seem to be going our way in terms of laying a path for sustained UK cold - those slider lows firing off the eastern seaboard keep flattening the MLB in the atlantic and keep resetting the situation to one where we are looking at >+240h for "potential" routes to cold from x chart. Don't mean to be too downbeat, of course, this time last year we'd be pretty darn chuffed with charts like these, but in the short term I don't think it's looking likely things are going to fall into place for our tiny segment of the NH in the short-term. Eagerly awaiting GP's predicted gamechanger, I need my fix of snow! Edit: Just want to add that this response isn't over this one run, it's a more general view of model watching over the last few days.