weatherguy

Wooo! First frost here for a long time, currently -1.2C and dropping under (presumably) a clear sky

Yes that's true, but if someone would have come to us and offered that November/December (with the clause of a poor Jan and Feb), I would have torn their arms off! Almost 4 weeks of constant ice days, frost so thick in areas that it looked like snow had settled, icicles hanging from trees, the temperatures in my area I never thought possible previously, and of course the icing on the cake; about 10" of snow*. That's what I'll remember from the winter of 2010/11 *Yes we've had more (over 15" in Feb2009, didn't measure it exactly) but it's plenty when it doesn't melt a single millimetre for about 2 weeks due to the extreme cold Roll on spring now, certainly will be glad to see the back of this overcast muck!

Well I half expected to see some sleet at least here today, -7C uppers with a ground temp of 2C...All in all a chilly drizzly wet day

Still the chance of a battleground over the midlands, can't see this being resolved exactly until T+0 though, at least the chance for some snow remains before winter is over

To my (I'll admit it) "untrained eye" those charts posted by Coast above do actually look remarkably similar, just that the pattern is a little too far north-west... Interesting to see if the rest of the forecast comes close in terms of the actual synoptic set up

Good read OldMetMan, thanks Regardless of the end result, it's amazing to think that amongst all the "boring" high pressure we've had for so long, the dates MB has predicted a storm for so long ago, looks to be showing up at all (regardless of exact location/strength). I know it's not a spectacular forecast to say there will be a storm on x date, but it does show a bit of credibility for it to happen out of sheer probability from a long way away. Here's an interesting chart anyway...

The ECM does look very interesting for your prediction MB...I've stayed very quiet in here really, and simply can't believe that many people who were probably taking the aura of waiting to see what happens, suddenly criticising you and saying there's no chance of it happening. As with any other forecast, we should judge this after the event time period has passed. I'm not saying whether it will or won't happen, but it should be given a chance to see what happens, just the same as it seemingly was a few weeks ago. Goodluck MB, I still sincerely hope that you're onto something.

Discussion about Spring here...It's still January! I do like mild weather, provided that we get enough cold/snowy weather to compromise. What I dislike is endless mild dull, cloudy, and rainy weather; much prefer it to be cold and dry than mild and wet really. With regards to cold, the mild weather seems like it will be gone maybe within a week, returning to at least polar maritime air, meaning cold-cool, with hopefully some drier weather for us here (depressing to see it rain pretty much all day every day for the past week) in the midlands. Potentially though, we may be put back into the freezer though, depending on whether or not that atlantic high pressure decides to move a tad further north or not - there are indications of a greenland high towards the end of the reliable timeframe too, but too far away too say for certain. The good thing is the potential is back!

Feb (I think the 2nd) 2009 is by far my favourite that I can remember, we got about 10" (possibly over 12" in rare drift areas) which is by far the largest snowfall event I've seen in my area - I even saw a snow plough go along the main road outside my house for the first time ever (not seen one since either). Quite an amazing snow event, absolutely loved it

It certainly would have the potential if things turn out like MB predicts, but as shown in the last cold spells, predicting snow can be near impossible even T+24 at times (In that GFS chart however, the high pressure is probably hugging too close to the UK to give the low a chance to penetrate, MB's charts would be more promising though I reckon...) Anyway, @MB - How is your prediction looking at the moment? Is there a way in your method to "update" your forecast to see if the accuracy is holding up, or do those "DNA matches" restrict you to how often you can forecast for a set day?

Indeed...Certainly signs of a storm (coming with -15 uppers in places if I remember correctly from when I looked earlier) seems to be appearing in deep FI on the charts, and in a similar location to where MB suggests; few hundred miles out at the moment but it's not expected to be bang on yet. Long time to go of course, but this could be very good to watch (Sorry, I don't know how to add a thumbnail...)

Can I just say that the new analyst thread is working very well IMO, it's much easier to see the actual analysis on the models each day now; personally I enjoyed reading a little bit of banter too but if you're pushed for time it's good to read that to get a feel for what the models are specifically showing, then if you have more time go and read the other model thread to see the wider opinion of others. I do think it could probably do with literally just a couple more in there however...Apart from that, it seems to be working just as intended, great idea

Woop woop! Typical though, if it's a small amount we attract it...If it's a substantial amount we seem to repel it to other areas... Magic of course

Woooo! Snowing here Got a slight covering everywhere

Indeed, not to mention the potential cost of damage, structural damage, damage to infrastructure etc. @ Harsh Climate - Why the instant dismissal when this hasn't been proven or disproven yet? I'm on the fence at the moment, but if this comes true then I will believe it as the chances of such a bizarre event happening would be quite low

It's actually quite a dilemma really - If it proves to come true, then obviously lives will be lost and severe damage caused. However, this would also prove that this forecasting method is highly successful and could potentially cause a revolution in forecasting; allowing for greater preparedness for such events which may save lives, and also of course improve accuracy of general forecasting which is always beneficial

Only just stumbled across this and it is very interesting indeed...If this truly does arise then the problems would be immense, as you point out in that video Thanks for this though, hopefully (if this is indeed correct) then weather forecasting methods will become much more accurate in general with time But wow...160mph winds coming from the NE...

Here's what Skynews (may not be reliable from there I know lol) are saying on the matter... "According to the Central England Temperature, which is used as a benchmark, the average temperature in December was -0.6C - the lowest since 1890." http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Weather-December-2010-Was-Coldest-December-In-120-Years-Meteorologists-Say/Article/201012415875406?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_3&lid=ARTICLE_15875406_Weather:_December_2010_Was_Coldest_December_In_120_Years,_Meteorologists_Say Is this right?

Lets take an optimistic gamble and go for 0.6C