weatherguy

Analysing that run is pointless when it can be summed up in 3 letters... wow.

Indeed, music to my ears! (or...good stuff to my eyes!)

This set up, so far, has been exceptionally well modelled. I remember a few days back some people fretting about models backing away from it (UKMO specifically, although it only ever showed a delay), but the similar situation remains so; pressure building north and west, lows tracking SE over the UK, while the final trigger low becomes cut off as the high to the west and north-east link up. This is still being shown, and is creeping closer and closer to T0. Let's enjoy it! PS - Let's also hope for no last minute implosion that seems to plague easterly set ups...

Get the easterly flow first, the cold uppers will come.

Happily...I could look at the 192 chart all night!

As I understand it, the real positive effects of the stratospheric conditions won't be felt until late December...so the fact that we already have extensive northern blocking can only be a good thing

Good to see I'm picking stuff up over the couple of years I've been on this site! Thanks

Am I right in thinking that the PV's position over Canada is what would prevent a sustainable greeny high setting up?

Really enjoy your posts TEITS, whereas you know cold is generally around when you see Steve on here, you know an easterly is particularly on the card when seeing your name appear in here! Was disappointed the one towards the back end of last year didn't come off, but this one does look promising! Pressure rises over Scandi, few major low anomalies but there's a big group going for high pressure: While the pressure in Iceland looks promising in the reliable (ish) time frame: You can clearly see the pressure falling as the low tracks south-east, then start to build again helping to lock in that easterly flow.

FI is an absolute beauty, but it's important to not that it is, well, fantasy at this point... Been saying for a long while now though (as have most others), with heights to our north and a weakened PV, the UK is in a good position for cold. Though we rely on very fine tuned synoptics for true cold to reach our tiny island, the overall northern hemispheric signals are about as good as it gets in terms of boosting our chances! December is looking good for a major cold spell, question is whether it will come from the north or from the east... With the (depleted!) PV expected to move over towards Canada however, north/north-east seems more likely. Unless of course GFS FI occurs where the jet seems to like the idea of Africa...

@Steve, safe to say that shows a fairly blocked atlantic...

Looking at the ensembles, it would appear that FI seems to start at around the 5th/6th December Remaining very cold in the short term (lots of frost about today!), and promising synoptics for cold potential through December.

Shortwaves destroying potential great cold, but with the promise of the cold either just being delayed or returning with a vengeance from a reload...Almost feels like That being said....The carrot is still there, and hopefully we should be able to bite it at some point in December! Blocking signals remain good and, as ever, this leaves us with a reasonable opportunity of seeing cold. And when I say "cold", I mean "proper" cold, because even this "failed" cold spell will still bring us below average temperatures for the most part.

It has as equal a chance at coming off as any of the others

What was encouraging in the early timeframe...didn't amount to much No further on from where we were earlier really (minor improvement perhaps regarding the dismal prior upstream pattern?), but it's fantastic news that the UKMO is staunchly sticking to its guns. I'll say exactly what I said yesterday: Hopefully things become by clearer tomorrow!

Signs good from the ECM so far, that deep low should really drag that high up through Greenland as long as it behaves itself!

Looks like high pressure might be drawn up behind it though?

It's my understanding that the stronger low would send more air northwards (of course dependant on the orientation of the low) thus strengthening the block. I may be wrong though, I've only been into this for the last 3 years and am still learning!

Thanks John, that's exactly what I was referring to Hopefully we see the UKMO stick to its guns and by tomorrow this place will seem a much more chilled (pardon the pun) place to be!

Anyone else remember those height anomaly charts posted a few days ago? That's why I'm sceptical about zonality. This attempt may fail, but blocking should soon re-establish itself, giving us another shot.

I'd be very wary of anything showing a return to "zonal" conditions as touted by some members; such an option simply isn't supported by the teleconnections and the strong blocking signal for the medium term. It may well be that this attempt at an easterly doesn't work out (although personally I believe it will happen) at first go, but I'm certain we'll get more bites at the cherry as heights to the north remain strong and the PV continues to be under immense pressure. A vast reorganisation of the PV and a flat jet would simply be illogical. Edit - Oh, and we're getting nearer and nearer to the FAX charts becoming really useful now, so hopefully in a day or so things will become much clearer regarding this first bite of the cherry

I seem to recall from this thread last year that, when comparing an easterly to a northerly, you can get away with higher upper air temps? Anywho, back directly to the models: Still showing a fantastic set up, it's easy to get hung up with the minor details, but looking at the northern hemisphere shows the big picture: MASSIVE northerly blocking continuing and thus an increased chance of colder weather in the long term. And indeed, even in the short-medium term, things look good pattern wise for us right here. Upper temps no need to look at just yet in great detail; get the pattern in place and the cold will follow if the blocking holds for long enough.

And sorry for the double post, but it's on a rather different theme... Even if the possible easterly looked to come off, would it really deliver much in the way of cold at this time of year? Yes I know that surface cold may be more important when looking at an easterly than the upper air temps, but those uppers still look very mild over the continent.

Oh of course, I'm just saying there's no need to get so worked up when we're so early on in the year! Yes it's exciting and the signs are all looking very promising IMO for something after 2 weeks, but no need to be nervous yet...plenty of time to chase the elusive cold spell You're right in saying it's unwise to look into FI as anything like gospel, rather just use it as trend watching. The trends indicate cold may be on its way, and it's good to grab the attention, but we won't know exactly until it starts getting within a more plausible time frame.

Just a reminder to all....We still have >2 weeks to go until winter yet! Yet another fantastic run from the GFS though, with the PV being split and heights building to our west. I've been seeing the charts showing exactly the same trends for a fair few days now...not sure what people are panicking about?