weatherguy

A step back on the 12z ECM from the 0z from what I can see; northern blocking is still present but it doesn't look as convincing in how it is brought about, or as strong...I fear that this is eventual split of the PV is just being postponed after each run. However, keeping some perspective in here, looking at trends the prospects do look much better than what we have endured over the last month or so, and long term signals are looking encouraging - May take a bit more patience mind you.

Thanks Nick, might this be supportive of a weakening of the PV as energy is diverted southwards away from the pole? Or is my understanding of this some way off?

Indeed, that's my point; all we have right now are indications with regards to the pattern change, far from set in stone. So we can't really expect the meto to change their outlook until, as I say, the short term uncertainty is behind us and a pattern change is a much greater probability. He posted it in the in-depth model discussion thread

Do the met not wait until a pattern change is more or less set in stone before they change their long term forecast? They're probably waiting for the short term uncertainty to pass before they make any dramatic changes to their long term outlook.

Tasty looking FI being shown on the ECM today, and it's quite stubborn with the general pattern change (formation of an arctic high, and a more amplified upstream pattern) over the last few runs: Lovely bit of eye candy above to cheer up those feeling a little down from the zonal dross of the GFS...

Remember that Fi-Watching is useful as far as trends are concerned; it certainly looks like a trend towards colder weather is underway (and for quite a few runs a mid-atlantic block has developed, leading to a northerly toppler). But yes, mild to extremely mild conditions do persist for the short term at least.

He's referring to the atlantic essentially being blocked there, and the PV is no longer as strong as it has been over Greenland. Ie. The chart is not showing cold, but the potential for cold looks much better for us (because there isn't a stream of low pressure systems moving in from the west); as PL says, the continental high is preventing the cold from moving south into the UK in that chart however.

Indeed, what are the chances of that high moving further north and giving us an easterly? Or is that simply too much to ask for...?

Reasonably happy with the 18z really, no sign of sustained cold but it gives us a nice little cold shot for much of the UK...Probably not much potential snow wise, but will feel a little more wintry at least than what we've been used to from this damn euro high

Hooray for some FI-candy! Too bad that in the reliable timeframe things look very boring still...until the eurohigh eventually breaks down anyway, at which stage things should become a bit more mobile.

Indeed, it goes to show how sick of this current pattern I am that I'm wanting zonality though! :lol:

I despise the kind of weather associated with it, but I personally wouldn't mind a zonal set up right now as it would blast away the damn eurohigh, and give us a "clean slate" in Europe from which a colder evolution might occur. The ECM doesn't deliver anything in the way of deep cold, but it does provide promising synoptics with decent northern blocking taking place...

Indeed, and those level-headed views are appreciated My point was though, at least there was some optimism here yesterday at least...

Well it looks like yesterday's optimism has faded somewhat

I absolutely love cold weather, but although it certainly is promising with the actual "set up" of the pressure around us in the medium term on the GFS (not looked at the others yet), I'm not seeing much potential in the way of actual cold/snowy weather just yet....The -5C upper temps are staying far to the north and never really reach us before the potential collapses into FI. Still time for this to change I guess, but we're only October, so not sure I'd like the deep freeze to start just yet anyway, Mid-November like last year was early enough!

Indeed, good indication that winter is getting closer though

I would respond to this by saying that the gulf stream is a main driver of long term climate, while the atmospheric heat transfer you speak of affects the weather. Obviously a huge system such as the THC will take much longer for changes to occur within it as opposed to the relatively short term factors such as a southerly tracking jet stream, which can determine how cold a particular winter can be. As such, your question I "bolded" is highly out of context as you are placing words in other people's mouths; a climatic factor would not affect an individual winter. Anyway, to the issue at hand, I do believe the gulf stream has slowed/changed course somewhat, but it is impossible to tell whether this is a long term thing, or a temporary blip. Also worth noting is whether changes in the gulf stream would affect the position of the jetstream, could less energy (in the form of heat) up north mean a more frequently tracking jet (as has occurred in the last few winters)? It's important to understand the driving factors behind the weather, and how interconnected they could be. Then you havew the issue of low solar activity, and how that might affect us. Tl;dr - Yes, in my opinion, the gulf stream has slowed in recent years. Is it the sole cause of our recent colder winters? Probably not. Does a further slowdown have the potential to impact our climate significantly? Definitely. Will it continue to slow down? No one really knows. Will the other factors affecting our climate continue to be favourable for a colder climate (eg. low solar activity, southerly tracking jet)? Lets wait and see PS - This response was written having not read what I assume is a very long article (as I don't have time right now), and instead just what you posted. Will make sure I read it though over the next day or two though and respond accordingly. Another idea I've heard knocking around is that a weaker gulf stream=less energy in the atlantic=fewer atlantic storms=greater prevalence of blocking (ie. greenland high). Not sure how well this corroborates, but it makes sense I suppose given the rather spectacular return of northern blocking in recent years. Oh (sorry again for yet another edit), in response to the OP of whether "it has happened", no it certainly hasn't just yet. If it had, we'd certainly know about it and wouldn't need to ask!

@Interitus - Interesting, guess I dismissed it a bit too vigorously. I just used the logic that storm surges from "actual" hurricanes do not reach 50ft, therefore it seems highly implausible that a depression could cause waves of such size. Still, the "prowler" apparently is a one off wave, whereas the article I linked implies "waves" ie. plural. @Snowyowl9 - I'm certainly not downplaying the storm, and don't deny it's power (why would I?), just the notion of predicting 50ft waves to hit seemed outrageous at first glance, particularly with the paper being, erm...well, the Daily Mail doesn't have the best rep around

Well there's bending of the truth like the above, then there's stuff like this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2035394/Hurricane-Katia-hit-parts-Britain-Monday.html That's right, they're claiming 50ft high waves

A treat in FI? Here's to hoping that, like last winter, such a pattern does take hold and stay there for a prolonged period of time... (I know I haven't really added anything to discussion, but came across the above and couldn't resist posing it hehe) On a serious note, I do think that we will be in for a winter very much similar (although, simply following laws of probability, I imagine it won't be quite as severe), winter taking hold early with quite a bite and being rather cold with a blocked pattern, before petering out early into next year.

Very nice here overall I would say, had that exceptionally hot spell early on to give us the customary taste of that (wouldn't want it non stop to be honest), and there has been a fair amount of sunshine/warm weather up until the last 2-3 weeks. Been a tad dry, but not that fussed about that really. Sure it may have been "boring" to the meteorological guys here, but over the summer I'm much more interested in how the weather feels than how it looks on the models

Lovely day today, 25/26C, and a great summer on the whole so far

November and December were so cold though that for me it definitely was a classic; certainly the coldest temperatures (and most prolonged cold/ice days) I have ever witnessed in my life... Although November isn't technically winter, if you replace February with November to retain the trio of months, things definitely look colder overall for last year. Basically, winter arrived and ended earlier

Here the Summer's been great really; although we only had about a week or two of really nice weather (~30C/high 20s) most days have been overcast-sunny and mid 20s...Not too shabby really

There have been some posts about ability to adapt, and I think a perfect example of that was during last winter. It fell to -16C in my area, which was, frankly, ridiculous and had never experienced it in my life. However, when the icy conditions broke down very quickly and literally the next day it was 0C in the morning, it actually felt reasonably warm; even though that would still be considered cold in a normal winter. Sure, -16C isn't exactly ice age conditions, but I think the ability to adapt is what has kept humans alive through periods in the past...Only now we have advanced further and should be able to cope just fine I think. The main problem I foresee if this does happen (debatable, but possible [probable?]) would actually be the economic effects, and a change in how society functions...