weatherguy

Unfortunately that would just bring mild air (and storms) with it without blocking up it's western side I'm afraid

well, going to be tense waiting to find out whether it's sleet/snow that decides to fall out the sky!

Ah thanks chiono, hadn't spotted it!

A thought, would it not be a good idea to make a separate thread for discussion regarding upcoming snow potential? In here people can talk about "downgrades" despite models on the whole maybe showing an upgrade for cold potential, you have highly IMBY orientated posts influenced by the snow, and the general flow of posts is all much harder to follow over the last couple of weeks, with a lot of posts in which the content is highly lacking (in any decent analytical sense). As a result, unless you've been following for a fair few pages, the context of people's comments regarding upgrades and downgrades can get very confusing; particularly so for newer members I would imagine! Just my two pennies worth

I'm not sure then as I've not seen those forecasts (sorry, I'm being a bit IMBY wrt looking for snow at this close range!), but I was just interpreting Ian's words...

Essentially it means it's a model error, and they're expecting just snow rather than a random change to rain inbetween.

Yeah, I travel to Rugby very often and whenever there's snowfall I always seem to notice a big difference in snow depths...seems quite bizarre really that such a short distance can equate to such great differences! And thanks for the link As a general rule about 1mm of ppn is roughly 1cm of snow, right? It's a cert to be snow, the conditions on the ground don't really matter apart from if you're worrying about snow melt. It's the upper air conditions which determine whether it falls as snow or not, and they are very favourable (usually <-5C is required for the 850 temps for snow to fall, can be a bit warmer at times but then you rely on other factors and it's more of a fine line)

Wow, looks like I may have underestimated this

How much are we looking at then, about 5-10cm is my reckoning for this area following the monday/tuesday event? -Daventry

I don't see it like that, the op is in a very strong cold cluster which are the majority of members, while there are just a couple of extreme outliers at the milder end. (until the very end of mid week, which is of course FI...look at the scatter past the 17th/18th)

It's not been snowing for long so maybe there's hope yet that it will reach you The snow's nothing to write home about really, it's barely more than a flurry, but it's nice to see things looking more seasonal after the mild muck we've had for most of the winter so far!

Light snow now falling here in Daventry

Normally this would be the case yes, but due to the effects of the SSW in theory such a typically strong jet is less probable.

I think the key thing also is that, obviously, DeBilt is to the south east of the UK...While not too far away in distance, it can make all the difference when we're right on the edge of a pattern as we are/will be/might be

No worries mate, remember that the wind direction is anti-clockwise for low pressure

That chart shows an easterly, with eastern areas at risk of showers coming off the north sea. Also noteworthy is the atlantic to the west; showing the risk of undercutting and bringing in large amounts of precipitation (most likely snow) for much larger swathes of the country. However, it's only a mean so you shouldn't look at it in too much detail other than noting the general pattern of blocking to the north, cold continental feed, risk of battleground with large LP systems colliding with cold air and pulling in a colder flow with it.

It's backed down a bit from its earlier output which is promising, while the ECM has maintained its stance on the SW going south east. So, probability of the cold option being correct has increased in my view since yesterday, but until we have the GFS fully on board it can't be a certainty!

Picking 2 random posts and it's no wonder that "newbies" can get confused on here, differing opinions are fine but it would be helpful if you could back up what you say with a chart and some analysis. So i'm not a hypocrite here's my take at this time frame: Current run from GFS: Previous run: The position of that low certainly indicates that it is sending more energy south east than the previous run and may well be breaking through that belt of high pressure over the north sea near scandy. Too early to tell if it's doing enough however. Edit: Moving the frames on and it refuses to send the low SE, that low tracks NE instead...Minor improvement but not enough.

Some fog here but nothing major what's happened to user locations by the way?

I'd actually posted the same thing about 10 mins earlier but it seems to have been missed

Remember that the anomaly charts are showing just that; the anomalies, not giving a picture of mean pressure. Ie. remember that pressure is often extremely low around Greenland due to the location of the "standard" polar vortex, so even a small region of high pressure would flag up as a very large positive anomaly.

Thank the lord for that! The SW behaves itself on the ECM again, now lets hope the GFS continues its backtrack and the other models stick to their guns... Beautiful chart once again

It's all about perception unfortunately It definitely is much better than the 12z, no real doubt about that. HOWEVER, it certainly is not good out into FI. Now, it's then up to perception whether the fact that the short term is better shows a sign of a backtrack, or whether the long-term is just too bad (which it would be if it verified) in terms of long term cold prospects. My view? 12z is an improvement but not great for long term cold. I would like to think it will improve more in the 18z but we'll have to wait and see on that; a vital 12z ECM coming up later and we must hope it sticks to its guns!

The high looks like it may just topple here out in FI, but the main thing is it's a massive correction from the 06z which showed a very short lived easterly before the atlantic set back in. Unfortunately the correction isn't enough to completely deflect the atlantic (merely delays is), but the key thing is it's a step in the right direction, while the other models so far remain supporting of the cold spell. I do find it amusing though that we're fretting about whether the cold spell will be prolonged or more short lived before it's even arrived though...

I'm struggling to post! Anyway... Has the earth decided to start spinning the wrong way round in FI? PV absolutely obliterated and easterlies galore! That's just for fun though, the key thing is yet more consistency in the short term, and the cold uppers starting to come into the genuine realistic time frame now. For example, this is the +96 chart, no doubt bringing snow for much of the UK as cold air is dragged with it.