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therecoil

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    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good evening folks. Here is the report from my perspective on the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Friday January 25th 2013.

    All models spell the end of the cold spell over the next 12-24 hours. A band of heavy rain and snow is currently crossing East over the UK, clearing the SE tomorrow morning. Following on behind will be a quieter less cold period tomorrow before a further spell of strong winds and heavy rain sweep across the UK tomorrow night with a rapid thaw. On Sunday and Monday a showery westerly flow looks likely with heavy squally showers, especially in the West with hail and thunder a possibility as well as snow on Northern hills. A further spell of rain sweeps East later Monday and Tuesday when it could become briefly very mild in the South in very strong winds though.

    GFS then shows further Low pressure pushing East to the North of Scotland with further spells of rain up to the weekend when rather colder weather as well as less windy conditions give the UK a welcome breather from the wind and rains of the past week. Thereafter the NW sees a return to rain at times while High pressure comes much more dominant for Southern areas with a continuation of drier weather here with some night frosts and patchy fog in temperatures close to the normal for early February.

    The GFS Ensembles show a sustained spell of Atlantic dominated weather throughout its output with no trend towards anything seriously cold shown tonight. Rain at times will continue as depression carrying strong winds continue to be shown to steam in from the West by most members.

    The Jet Stream shows a continuation of the flow pumping East over the Atlantic and into the UK and on over Europe with peaks and troughs as various pressure systems pass West to East.

    UKMO for midday on Thursday shows Low pressure over Scandinavia stretching West to the North of Britain with secondary depressions west of Scotland and North of the Azores. The far North will be chilly with showers, some of them wintry while most other areas see further rain at times in breezy West winds and temperatures close to normal.

    ECM tonight shows a standard Winter setup with a powerful Jet crossing the Atlantic and the UK with the Azores High at home while successive deep Low pressure areas sweep band after band of rain and strong winds interspersed with clearer and somewhat colder conditions with heavy showers. Later in the run temperatures are shown to fall back somewhat as cold zonality briefly tries to take control of the UK weather with wintry showers possible in places in less strong winds before wind and rain return on Day 10.

    In Summary a very disturbed spell of weather is set to replace the cold and snowy spell of late. As the Atlantic goes into top gear with a powerful jet stream depression after depression will cross the Atlantic to the North of the UK with strong to gale winds and copious rain events affecting the UK with some regularity. Some brighter more showery interludes will occur too with temperatures near to normal on the whole though some mild interludes could occur in the South early next week and rather chillier conditions generally after next week.

    thank you Gibby , very interesting reading as usual and as always easy to read for someone like with limited Knowledge

    London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    the wet is not good for lime mortar but the temps sound good although I will be sad to see the snow fade away atleast I can earn some wonga , looking forward to the next snow event even if it does leave me poor!!

    At least 10 days I would say going by current model output.

    Should get to double digits at some point. Although it does look pretty windy and wet at times.

    Very autumnal actually.

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