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Everything posted by pages

  1. pages
    Ukmo epic at 120, gfs cold all week as well.
  2. pages
    I remember KOLD predicting that and is forecasts were spot on. Hopefully he will be on here some time today and tell us what he is predicting tomorrow and tuesday
  3. pages
    CFs is just awful for us wanting a long cold spell it brings in the atlantic at 1074hr lol. Only has a 300hr long easterly followed by northerly followed by another 200hr long easterly, SE would get about 20ft of snow
  4. pages
    No about 5 of them so thats 25%, looks like 4 may go on to give an easterly. haven't a clue what pertubation 11 will do, it has nice 1025 heights from scandie to greenland, but the vortex is powering up a 930mb low south of greenland.
  5. pages
    perturbation 10 looks good wedge of high pressure over greenland azores high send packing and slider lows. cold going to be locked in?
  6. pages
    Ensembles show massive just how liable change is in the medium term. Only out to 90hr so far and already a 15mb difference over greenland.
  7. pages
    Got a feeling this run is going to be good at end of FI, votex way from greenland at 224. think the last frame may show the vortex on its last legs
  8. pages
    Perturbance 2 is strange the only ensemble to link the vortices and replace the higher pressure over the arctic with low pressure but its works out good us. Energy going directly north?
  9. pages
    ECM is following the BOM and that is brillant all the way out to t240 and about go epic, this place will be in meltdown in 20 minutes if the ECM continues the same way.
  10. pages
    The Bom is almost identical to the GEM at 138, its going to give us a potent easterly and lock the cold into the end of the run. So thats GEM, BOM, UKMO and NOGAPS not letting the atlantic back in, with different cold chances in the long term Vs the GFS. Come on ECM back the rest up.
  11. pages
    Surely the GEFS are going to be wrong? Steve Murr says its all down to the split in the jet around tip of greenland. The GEFS have a lower resolution and different start data, so of course they will resolve the split differently. I would still back the UkMO, ECM and GFS even if all 20 members of the GEFs show the atlantic influence.
  12. pages
    Be happy with 120 and disregard everything else. The shortwaves/troughing over Europe won't be resolved to the the 12Z sunday. The 240hr will not verify, back round signals show height rises towards greenland day 10 and the ECM has low pressure
  13. pages
    can perturbation 1 verify please. 10 days of from the 12th to the end of the run of at most -7c 850ph with two bouts -12c and the blocking and cold still solid at 384hr well we can dream
  14. pages
    please let it happen the whole of the uk under -8 850s with the south east corner under -12
  15. pages
    its broken surely?
  16. pages
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0 someone unlike me with a bit of knowledge please look at the JMA, what happens between 84h and 92h is impossible?
  17. pages
    the GEM at 138 looks similiar to the ukmo 144 but its been stuck on metociel for about an hour, anyone seen what it does next?
  18. pages
    The snowfest at 240 is great but i agree surely a couple of frames later the high to the north is going to sink cutting off the supply of cold uppers.
  19. pages
    awful forecast thou. its completly wrong, its much futher south and east and even latest bbc report has snow over cardiff-bristol area at 6am, looking at the radar thats never gonna happen the whole lot will have waved goodbye to lands end by then
  20. pages
    Yeah strange seems to be heading due south now
  21. pages
    well the way the models are performing in the short term it is probably better they are suggesting no snow from next weeks possible northerly, they never verify as shown so more likely to have snow if it says none than if it showed snow lol
  22. pages
    credit where credit is due the GFS precip charts are often way off but they seem to be the only model to call tonight correctly. This is the 18z but 12z and 6z were almost identical. was praying the 6z would verify this morning when the bbc gave no chance http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120209/18/03/prectypeuktopo.png
  23. pages
    Question to the experienced on here: how did the high res NMM and NAE plus the experienced forecasts from the met have the south-east down for almost nothing, while the lower res gfs was correct. what is the point of the NAE and NMM if they get thinks wrong at t+3 seems a complete waste of money, who pays for them?
  24. pages
    well the met office and the high res models didn't get it right but check precip type chart on the awful 6z gfs it has called it correctly. miracles do happen
  25. pages
    Well the latest NMM and NAE have moved tomorrows event further west misiing the south east corner. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php But they are both incorrect at +3 with the rain over scotland much further east, so don't know what to think. what does Steve Murr think comparing the radar do the models, will the fact that they are already wrong make a big difference? and if so forr the better or worse?
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