Baldy Snowman

yeah i love it. glued to it in conditions like this. it''s saying snow showers starting to hit s wales now. bit of sleet in the bristol channel though, and over the mountains of england to our south, there's a mixture of snow sleet and freezing rain

also, the low looks a lot tighter, and more organised. quite nice looking on v7. also definitely further east than predicted, by about 65 to 70 miles further east than where it is SUPPOSED to be at 12 am, by my rough reckoning. this MUST change what happens, surely?

something seems off about the falling precipitation, and the predicted precipitation on GFS. it seems to be a bit further north, a couple of dozen miles, than what the GFS precipitation 12 z chart thinks, but the low is almost exactly where it's supposed to be, if a bit tighter than predicted on the sea level pressure GFS chart

from memory, it was bloody lovely too. yum.

in 82, we had no choice. had to drink raw milk from the local farm as we were completely cut off

you have to subscribe to it. costs just over 3 quid a month. i paid for it specially for this event. lol

nice batch of snow moving at us here in S Wales on v7

in other words will the beast bite back?

oh, right, thanks

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs-hourly GFS hourly chart. go to 'precipitation type' and click through hour by hour. what the heck is it with that 5 hour pulse of activity, then on hour 6 of the cycle, everything disappears, and it builds again? glitch? if not, that is freaky.

he is right though. this could go any way imho. these lows are like circling tigers, wanting to roar their white rage on us, or circling feline cats, wanting to snuggle up to us, and dump their chilly, rainy vomit all over us. i dont think ANY of the forecasters have a good idea about the immediate future, simply cos they are working with models that cant handle the beast. gonna be fun to watch, even if it does go mild later. edit. lol, it changed felinecats to feline cats. , double edit - it changed that too. i think you know what word I posted?

especially after that beeb forecast earlier this week, 10pm Wednesday night i think it was, which said any mild is gonna get chilled by the beast, and even southerlies and westerlies from these slack lows will produce snow in the days/weeks to come couldn't believe that forecast. it was amazing

what are your thoughts on what is gonna happen?

yeah, i am looking for slight differences that might give us a clue. above is the v7 for right now and this is the pressure chart for 6pm.. Circulation seems tighter right now on v7, western edge of it level with Lands End, and in the GFS the circulation is miles further west? Don't know if it's significant or not.

no, actually he is right. my eyes were deceiving me. easily done when you are looking at stuff like this. making patterns where there is none. gonna be watching it like a hawk tonight though. a sharper eyed hawk hopefully... (don't agree there is no rotation though. it may be slow, but it's rotating?) that huge blob of precipitation over Normandy looking interesting though

hmmm, yeah, OK. are you using v7? cos on THAT at least, there is definite circulation, and it HAS moved ENE.

UNLESS the beast bites back? what IF the low struggles to move north? instead slowly spinning it way ENE, just as it is doing now? it isn't going to take much more movement that way to start pulling the really heavy stuff in the Irish sea over some of us imho. i simply dont trust the charts with this situation after the last two weeks of watching them. insane roller-coaster ride it was. OK, they're probably right, but the positioning is bound to be slightly more in our favour now, seeing as it is slightly more east than forecast?

no, what we are saying is IF it pulls away, down the channel, into Benelux,, aka a 'channel low', it'll pull all of the precipitation west of us right over all of us. of course this will mean it completely going against predictions, so unlikely, but IS IT, given the complete pigs ear the models made in the run up to this?

yeah, I'm watching it VERY carefully. couple of posts back I posted two images two hours apart showing a most definite ENE movement of it

that is one happy looking dog!

it was the 'channel low' that did us in 82 if i remember correctly, and also, again if i remember correctly, they didn't have a handle on what it was doing, at all. we need the Eastenders boom booms here.....

yeah, a DEFINITE eastwards movement of all of the associated precipitation of this storm, all of the way out to the west of Ireland. it's very subtle, but there but the last two hours, it has gone the OPPOSITE way to what was predicted, and at midnight, it needs to be sat off Lands End. this is knife edge stuff. could make a huge difference to what happens next, imho

surely if the low is going the OPPOSITE way to what it was forecast to do, that changes everything? anyone else think so? will be interesting to see if this trend continues over the next two hours. the centre of it should be sat off the SW tip of the UK at midnight according to GFS. to my untrained eyes on the v7 radar, snow SEEMS to be being pulled back EAST, towards Swansea?

nothing on radar for me mate, and snowing well, and drifting. looking much whiter out there now, and looks FREEZING too

no, it's OK. lol, it's parked outside the house. supposed to be working early in morning. not looking forward to it.