minus10

Latest ukv..12z.. ..based on that would have thought blanket amber however there must be other issues at play...

Interesting that the London area , parts of central and eastern areas only left out of the amber...what is it about this part of the country that would result in the winds being somewhat less strong given that parts of cambridgeshire are in the amber. .also given the large population of the London area and home counties which is as i understand is taken into account for the warnings...

Yes widespread wind event later today...wouldnt want to be travelling up or down the country later...

Signs of the north eastern amplification on the 12z gefs..

Well have to say that looking at this fax its a pity not more could be made of this set up for midweek snow in the south.. ..three seperate frontal systems to the south !!...yet we will struggle to get a flake....although not if the bbc app for London is to be believed.. ?? ...return to mild has been well forcasted however very strong signal of this on the 0z eps ..vortex looking strong and robust for last week of February..its amazing how quick it has devoured the Greenland high... ...the anoms show some amplification at the end of the month but as currently shown it wont benefit us for cold.. ...indeed could get quite mild for a while..although if the high anom keeps moving north it could then be more favourable for cold... ..so yes disappointing really as was hoping for more...however cold week coming up with some frosts and somewhere in uk will get snow. Got to hope that the favourable drivers kicking in again for late January / February as predicted do promote blocking in the right place for delivering cold and snow to the uk...not an easy task...enjoy what you can...

Wow...i think...

Looking at 12z 850 ens gfs, ecm and gem.. ..what strikes me is how smooth the ecm ens are compared to the other two...smooth = cleaner? ...also how proportionately less milder ens there are in the period prior to the rise in the ecm op ...this looks a reasonably good signal in my opinion for cold at least till the 20th or so... ..like the cluster of ec ens with or below the mean in this period...

Yes the op is way up together with the control.. ...good cluster below the mean .. ..is this a resolution issue with the gfs op..?..no because the control (lower res) is with it...so the last two runs showing the gfs op and control at the extreme warm end of the envelope..could be right of course..cant see it being maintained though unless the lower ens move up in future runs.....be interesting to see where the 12z ecm op and control is ..say...on the 18th..both high res as are all the ec ens...

Pretty good 12z eps so far ..flatlining op/ control and cluster below mean..

Phew !... ...hard to keep pace with the threads and all that is going on.. Nice set of ensembles.. Gfs, Ecm and Gem.. ..the amomalies still look solid for Ingham day...(15th) Gfs, Eps , Gem ..and i saw some snow grains this morning to boot... ..feels proper cold out there..home made soup day for sure.. ..right...now ...must check the radar..

Well only a few snow grains but at least it is happening in January...feels real cold out there...

Some stronger echos now off suffolk coast...will they move in and develop?

Interesting how the 850s have been modelled colder over last few days..this now from ecm0z and gfs6z.. does seem further north and with what is forming/ moving towards us from the east should be interesting today for the south east/ south..

Yes just last few frames on radar show increase in precipitation..

Yes i dont think i remember a time when so much data is pointing in the same direction now in support of turning colder...incredible ensemble modelling in particular... Cant add much else...with just the hope that it all 'hangs together ' for next few days .. Will just leave these...they speak for themselves.. ...love the vibe on the forum tonight.. ..hopefully....

Pretty amazing to see all the ens tightish with the mean in the first dip..

Well i looked at some of the earlier posts in the early stages of gfs12z run and they were quite sobering so came off for while...then went back on later and saw this.. ...lovely movement in the yellow blob retro to Greenland...amazing greenland high being modelled.. ..its there on the mean ... ..lovely charts...getting closer...

All good so far for the general theme of turning colder... ..the double dip showing nicely in the eps, geps and gefs.. Anons still look strong for mid month..eps and gefs.. ...and thats a pretty good gefs mean for 14th January... ...so broadscale looking good...finer details still tbc... In the short term..eg today as well as the copious rains i will have to batten down the hatches here.. ..stay safe ..

Yes...

Too much info....

Probably been posted already but this is a pretty good 0zeps mean for t300.. ..colder air in the trough coming down to southern Europe.. ...6z eps also looking good at t144 for south/south east.. wintry showers into the south east?

Mogreps are definately 'getting down'...thanks Matt for all your great uplifting posts throughout the year...hope new year is better for you.. ..well despite details still to be ironed out it still looks like 6th or 7th it starts to turn colder...looking further ahead towards mid month the signs of colder than average weather remain.. Eps 500 0z anoms.. ...showing considerable area of above average heights to nw and below average heights to the east from Baltics to med. looking deeper...at the mslp and anoms it still shows plenty of HP stretching up to the pole and low pressure trough to the east..although conditions on the ground will vary according to actual synoptic patterns... the 850 temp anoms also show quite a large area of colder than average stretching from the Baltics and east down to the med and of course covering the uk.. Wanted to post the gefs but for some reason the download froze...anyway point is i think once the colder than average weather arrives it will be with us for at least a couple of weeks if not longer..actual details will eb and flow and of course how cold and whether there is snow..however this is a better position to be in than a bog standard zonal westerly going on for weeks... ..finally just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year..hope those that are suffering can look forward to better times...and a thank you to all posters on here for making this forum as good as it is..the ups and downs all part of it...also thanks again to the educational posters ..you know who you are..i have learnt a lot but still of course..learning.. ...have a good evening...️

0z Ens anoms still solid with nw higher heights signal for the 7th.. ...and a little later even stronger with more emphasise on lower than average heights over Europe/ Iberia.. Eps looking particularly strong for the heights and the trough... Ensembles still.looking fairly solid for at least a colder spell.. Gefs 0z and 6z so far.. Ec 0z. ...good to see the ensemble signal staying strong and with the better ecm op this morning....looking more promising but still some time to go..so..steady as she goes...

Going down..

Checking in again on ens anoms for 7th.. Gefs, Eps, Geps 0z ..signal for higher than average pressure to nw still there..just get the feeling that it is getting a little put back..geps keen on troughing which is still to clear at this time.. ..eps ensemble graph still showing a more bullish colder turn from 6th or so this morning.. Gefs mean also lower than average... ...as others note the ops and means looking to go the way perhaps of a uk high...so change of sorts still likely..cooler or cold?..drier?..hopefully..we will see..