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Mike Poole It was interesting watching the met deep dive earlier where Aidan stated that the sudden change in the modelling of the low from taking it southeast to stalling it over the uk/ moving it north was resulted from a small increase in the modelled development of the low way back in the Atlantic which then resulted in it becoming larger and extending its influence of mild air thus displacing the cold air further north...again minute changes upstream resulting in huge changes downstream..thus effecting the surrounding synoptic response too...have to say that the gfs saw this a few days before the ec/ ukmo...is it better at picking up developments in the Atlantic...really shows how complex and sensitive the weather processes are... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5032175

Mike Poole It was interesting watching the met deep dive earlier where Aidan stated that the sudden change in the modelling of the low from taking it southeast to stalling it over the uk/ moving it north was resulted from a small increase in the modelled development of the low way back in the Atlantic which then resulted in it becoming larger and extending its influence of mild air thus displacing the cold air further north...again minute changes upstream resulting in huge changes downstream..thus effecting the surrounding synoptic response too...have to say that the gfs saw this a few days before the ec/ ukmo...is it better at picking up developments in the Atlantic...really shows how complex and sensitive the weather processes are...

Well here we are again...snowlines ..20 or 50 miles north/south ...... ...however gfs 6z fi interesting as others have said it does show the pattern change as highlighted by the seasonals and the anomalies... ....that R word again...RRRet...so although the next day or so still uncertainty abounds maybe this is one of those occasions where fi is more certain than the immediate...well...a little...perhaps ?..

Thats more like it!! ...yes in la la land but how often do you see a chart like this from any model ? ....nice to look at anyway...

Like the Gefs, the Eps showing clear signal for the trough also.. ..uncertainty after but a general rise in pressure.. ..solid dip in 850s also .. ...however on the rise later in the run but as Mike showed on the clusters large uncertainty by then.. ...so a cold trough looks a good bet..how cold and type of precipitation and location still to be decided...

Pretty strong signal for the trough next week on the gefs ..also note the op and control in tandem for this period on the 850s.. ..look forward to the eps later..

Gefs 12z there is a reasonable signal for colder later in run...op there isnt...

Well dont know how strong but the gusts really sound like they mean business here now in wgc...right next to a wood so sounds like freight trains..

Latest ukv..12z.. ..based on that would have thought blanket amber however there must be other issues at play...

Interesting that the London area , parts of central and eastern areas only left out of the amber...what is it about this part of the country that would result in the winds being somewhat less strong given that parts of cambridgeshire are in the amber. .also given the large population of the London area and home counties which is as i understand is taken into account for the warnings...

Yes widespread wind event later today...wouldnt want to be travelling up or down the country later...

Signs of the north eastern amplification on the 12z gefs..

Well have to say that looking at this fax its a pity not more could be made of this set up for midweek snow in the south.. ..three seperate frontal systems to the south !!...yet we will struggle to get a flake....although not if the bbc app for London is to be believed.. ?? ...return to mild has been well forcasted however very strong signal of this on the 0z eps ..vortex looking strong and robust for last week of February..its amazing how quick it has devoured the Greenland high... ...the anoms show some amplification at the end of the month but as currently shown it wont benefit us for cold.. ...indeed could get quite mild for a while..although if the high anom keeps moving north it could then be more favourable for cold... ..so yes disappointing really as was hoping for more...however cold week coming up with some frosts and somewhere in uk will get snow. Got to hope that the favourable drivers kicking in again for late January / February as predicted do promote blocking in the right place for delivering cold and snow to the uk...not an easy task...enjoy what you can...

Wow...i think...

Looking at 12z 850 ens gfs, ecm and gem.. ..what strikes me is how smooth the ecm ens are compared to the other two...smooth = cleaner? ...also how proportionately less milder ens there are in the period prior to the rise in the ecm op ...this looks a reasonably good signal in my opinion for cold at least till the 20th or so... ..like the cluster of ec ens with or below the mean in this period...

Yes the op is way up together with the control.. ...good cluster below the mean .. ..is this a resolution issue with the gfs op..?..no because the control (lower res) is with it...so the last two runs showing the gfs op and control at the extreme warm end of the envelope..could be right of course..cant see it being maintained though unless the lower ens move up in future runs.....be interesting to see where the 12z ecm op and control is ..say...on the 18th..both high res as are all the ec ens...

Pretty good 12z eps so far ..flatlining op/ control and cluster below mean..

Phew !... ...hard to keep pace with the threads and all that is going on.. Nice set of ensembles.. Gfs, Ecm and Gem.. ..the amomalies still look solid for Ingham day...(15th) Gfs, Eps , Gem ..and i saw some snow grains this morning to boot... ..feels proper cold out there..home made soup day for sure.. ..right...now ...must check the radar..

Well only a few snow grains but at least it is happening in January...feels real cold out there...

Some stronger echos now off suffolk coast...will they move in and develop?

Interesting how the 850s have been modelled colder over last few days..this now from ecm0z and gfs6z.. does seem further north and with what is forming/ moving towards us from the east should be interesting today for the south east/ south..

Yes just last few frames on radar show increase in precipitation..

Yes i dont think i remember a time when so much data is pointing in the same direction now in support of turning colder...incredible ensemble modelling in particular... Cant add much else...with just the hope that it all 'hangs together ' for next few days .. Will just leave these...they speak for themselves.. ...love the vibe on the forum tonight.. ..hopefully....

Pretty amazing to see all the ens tightish with the mean in the first dip..

Well i looked at some of the earlier posts in the early stages of gfs12z run and they were quite sobering so came off for while...then went back on later and saw this.. ...lovely movement in the yellow blob retro to Greenland...amazing greenland high being modelled.. ..its there on the mean ... ..lovely charts...getting closer...