minus10

That seems to suggest that Scotland stays in the cold through to 10th Dec at least Matt...looking at Aberdeen...story continues?

Just dipping in from south east..wow..envious ( in a nice way)..what i find odd is just looking at latest met office video and presenter stated that showers 'perhaps' turning wintery over north western hills...and there was no reference to their own amber warning...not knocking met as i think they do a good job in general but this latest video forecast seems way out with what is going on...

Looking at the 6z gfs and 0z ec ens for Madrid you can see that while there is a modest increase in pressure the ops from both gfs and ecm are at higher end of the pack later on... ...with 850 temps.. ..while both are showing means above long term averages it is again the ops that are outliers ( the control on ec being the effective op)...so someway to go yet before we will no whether this... ...will become reality...the ec clusters that Mike posted earlier showed many different options...

Yes quite a shift or 'correction' this morning with the block being modelled further east....and with the exception of the two posters above .... this is definately not what we want to see creeping into the runs..

Comparatively barmy in the northern states and Canada at end of run.....

Wow...thats one big block..

That is just Alien....

Yes...spot the same?

Well the signal for the developement of a blocking high over north west Russia has been present on a number of Ecm runs now... ...just watch how it evolves and extends west.. ...the vortex at this time displaced to other side of hemisphere.. ...even gfs12z toying with the idea of more scandi based blocking later in run.. ..so obviously it could and still (and maybe will ) come to nothing but perhaps the ops are sensing something re favourable drivers returning ?...

Yes.... well.... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4964415

Yes.... well....

Yes where is the vortex??

Well clutching at straws maybe but the mean stays below the LT mean and a reasonable number of ens stay cold.. ..op at top again...(and control)

Yes...looking for those reds to intensify as per gfs6z fi....

Interesting to see the higher thickness anomalies return accross the pole further on into December on the gfs18z. Although fi, this is what needs to be looked for on subsequent runs and other models to tie in with the bigger driver developments such as MJO and AAM previously detailed..as i understand it....

10 degrees or more between the op and the 850 mean/long term mean..wonder what the record is for the difference between an op and its means...

...start of a new trend??...no ?...oh well..good to see the minus 10 fantasy line breeched ...first time i think this winter. ..oh wait its still Autumn...

Cracking mean and tight clustering...

Well "this ecm" was a good one....

Yes...pretty good chart at t330.. ...pretty hefty block greenland way with vortex over siberian side...pity about the ..low..though... beforehand..

Pretty strong signal of south Greenland high pressure on the NOAA anoms for the 6 to 10 day period ... ..still there on the 8 to 14 day.. ...these are cold anoms.... ...

Wow..!!

Waaaa...what a ride...and jff look at the rather displaced and dissected vortex at the end of the gfs/ ecm runs...

Not bad...

Yes...what sticks out for me is the way the means are almost leading the way for cold...if that makes sense.. ...both the 0z gefs and ec above show this..its not just the op being an outlier with the rest of the ens being nearer the LT average...they are down there too!.. ..with these from the 0z anoms for 1st December.. ..seems a fairly consistent and strong signal for colder weather ..however we know that things can ( and probably will) change but ...hey ...great model viewing at present.. @Allseasons-si .....sorry to hear that mate...was wondering where you were at a time like this ..glad to hear you are feeling better..