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minus10

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Everything posted by minus10

  1. minus10
    Yes the Gfes z500 mean anoms show the blocking in the Atlantic upto Greenland and north east for the 30th...
  2. minus10
    Although the direction of travel is fairly clear now it is no dramatic warm up according to gfs6z.. ..even the mean 850s keeping 0 deg isotherm to the south west of uk.. ...this also evident looking at the ens ..mean someway below longterm average from 25th with cluster of ens at or below -5 850... cool changeable north westerly regime seems likely...
  3. minus10
    Well not the best charts this morning for day 10 means and amomalies gfs/ecm 0z if your looking for cold prospects...
  4. minus10
    Yes a tale of the two high pressures and the Atlantic trough developing by day 10... ....key is where the highs lie..10 day ecm0z wants an Azores Scandi link up thus increasing the chances of more settled and cooler conditions with risk of frost and fog.. ...whereas 10 day gfs0z is keeping the two separate highs with the southerly one ensuring a milder and changeable (in the north west) regime .. ..ens both showing general rise in pressure around that period.. ...It will come down to whether there is a link up of the two highs ... ..the gfs6z is closer to this.. ...position of the jet and strength/orientation of Atlantic trough all important... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4949121
  5. minus10
    I have had the temporary unavailable message on my android...mainly when i click on the community short cut icon ..if i then go back through the website to access the community it is usually ok...thought it was a problem with my phone...
  6. minus10
    Yes a tale of the two high pressures and the Atlantic trough developing by day 10... ....key is where the highs lie..10 day ecm0z wants an Azores Scandi link up thus increasing the chances of more settled and cooler conditions with risk of frost and fog.. ...whereas 10 day gfs0z is keeping the two separate highs with the southerly one ensuring a milder and changeable (in the north west) regime .. ..ens both showing general rise in pressure around that period.. ...It will come down to whether there is a link up of the two highs ... ..the gfs6z is closer to this.. ...position of the jet and strength/orientation of Atlantic trough all important...
  7. minus10
    What i find incredible is that a record low pressure so far south with its track having been basically due east along the south coast before eventually turning more north east...can anyone more knowledgable than me explain this track ?...so far south?...yes the jetstream dipping significantly south but why has the low not tracked more north east earlier as i was under the impression that deeper lows always tracked north east...not due east and so far south...presumably the higher pressure to the north has something to do with it?!
  8. minus10
    With synoptic charts like this for 7am and 10am tomorrow.. ....i am surprised not more of south and east England is getting notably strong winds..how often do you find a 951 mb low just to the south of the wash as per gfs12z at 10am tomorrow?...i suppose it is the funnel effect of the strong winds through the channel and the angle/incidence of the winds over land...i remember many times in the past when lows not as deep passing over northern England/ southern Scotland produced 60 to 80 mph further south..admitadly they were usually westerlies...
  9. minus10
    Amazing to hear on the MO deep dive that storm Ciaran will be the lowest pressure storm for November in England on record...the previous record 959 mb in 1916... ...also that the fact that it is so incredibly far south...always associate these deep areas of LP being further north...
  10. minus10
    The 'arrows' indicate knots and direction while the colouring indicates kmh re @Mapantz above.. Ecm 0z / 18z for comparison..
  11. minus10
    Gfs 0z edging slightly north again for 0z.. 18z 18z
  12. minus10
    Gfs 18z
  13. minus10
    Certainly a slight shift north today for the 12z gfs and ukmo.. ..these slight variations critical for locations of strongest winds over land..safe to say a rough autumnal day for Thursday...
  14. minus10
    Looks like EC0z sniffing out a change perhaps.. Control at 1040 !! Eps showing the end of the eternal trough..
  15. minus10
    6z gfs still showing a bullseye for Thursday...955mb centred just off nw Wales i think... ...you can see why the deepening with the left exit off the strong jetstream across the Atlantic.. 6z also showing a swathe of strong wind gusts over central / south eastern areas at this time ... ...particularly brutal coming into the south coast 12 hrs earlier.. ..not a day for venturing out on the seas if you can avoid it...pretty rough over land also..still time for changes but the risk of this increasing.. ...away from this turbulent weather any hope of it settling down/ turning colder further into November.. With heights to the north being maintained , the azores high displaced further south west and a constant feed from the Greenland / north eastern Canadian trough it doesnt look too hopeful according to gfs6z op.. ...the ens show a limited rise in pressure further into November ... ...however its like the horizon at present...we never quite reach it... Hopefully we will eventually..have a good weekend if you can....
  16. minus10
    Well next Thursday looks the day the models seem to be homing in on for a stormy spell.. Gfs, Ecm, Ukmo, Gem 0z ..obvious differences re position and configuration and changes still likely in the details however looking increasingly likely that rain and strong winds will be prominent in the uk on that day... ...indeed dont think i have seen such a deep trough been shown on the 6 to 10 day anomalies as of yesterday over the uk for a while..
  17. minus10
    Nice mature anvil caught looking south...
  18. minus10
    Its normally the case for the gfs to blow up potent lows but how about this for 12z day 10 ecm..... 955 mb ??? Quite remarkable...and quite disruptive if this was to verify... ...needless to say..... ...so i think ecm is kind of ..er...losing it here at day 10...well it is day 10 but interesting to see.... ..actually gfs12z for day 10 has this.. ...so looking like a volatile period coming up either way...
  19. minus10
    Models still homing in on very unsettled/disturbed spell for sunday.. Gfs/Ecm/Ukmo/Gem 0z ..the secondary low formation from the main trough the culprit ...after that still not looking that good...although gfs tries to raise pressure somewhat as we go into November.. ...however ecm still doesnt want to know with yet another stormy low.. ...very wet October on the cards and beginning of November...got to hope that there is a change as we go further into November.. Maybe the anomalies can give us some hope..mmm ..well as of yesterday for 10 to 14 days they paint a westerly unsettled picture with main trough centred further west...
  20. minus10
    Yes a pretty unsettled outlook with more rain and wind... gfes 0z looking pretty wet here at times with temps at or just below average.. ..0z pressure ens showing more of a shift to this unsettled theme i think when compared with yesterdays 12z.. ..certainly the op has dropped the previous theme of more of a rise in pressure as we go into November ...seems these unsettled patterns once in go on repeating ...only positive i think is that areas of rain will be moving through quicker than has been seen recently...still little comfort for those flooded areas accross the country....
  21. minus10
    Models getting closer on the location of the low for tomorrow/weekend.. Gfs, Ecm. Ukmo and Gem 0z ...still variations with gfs the deepest at 970 mb while gem has it centred slightly further south..ecm is also the only one not going for the dartboard look...these variations crucial as to where the heavy rain will fall however think we can safely say that north north east of it there will be easterly gales slamming into the Scottish east coast together with more rain which will not be needed..nasty...
  22. minus10
    Yes a disturbed weather pattern from wednesday onwards.. ...its like Autumn has come crashing in ...frost last night with temp around freezing and now after couple more days of relative calm..its the wet and strong winds between mainly south and east directions ....
  23. minus10
    Well i was just going to post when @Cambrian beat me to it with his usual excellent informative posts.. ...same theme though..day 10 z500 mean anomalies for Gfs. Ecm, Gem and Naefs 0z.. ...this pattern is surely what we want to see continued to enable Scandi/Baltic cooling and vortex disruption (if my understanding is correct)..it may mean mild weather for us but its a kind of longer term winter investment for more colder air to tap into later November/ December.... ...certainly the day6 jetstream for gfes/ec 0z mean shows no sign of zonality as currently projected.. ..in the meantime i think next week we are going to have to get used to a strong south easterly wind.. ...good for drying ...
  24. minus10
    Well ...jff...the gfs 6z really teasing the winter synoptics out... .. First ...scandi high.. ...then cold pool to the south.. ..then Greenland high.. ...fairly decent trop vortex to the east at the end...now if this was late December.. ..obviously op still in the minority of the ens and not the preferred solution as mentioned above.. ...but certainly interesting to see how this plays out and the effect on the position and strength of the growing vortex..
  25. minus10
    Yes spoit this morning with a scandi then Greenland high... ..easterly cold pool as well !!
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