minus10

All good so far for the general theme of turning colder... ..the double dip showing nicely in the eps, geps and gefs.. Anons still look strong for mid month..eps and gefs.. ...and thats a pretty good gefs mean for 14th January... ...so broadscale looking good...finer details still tbc... In the short term..eg today as well as the copious rains i will have to batten down the hatches here.. ..stay safe ..

Yes...

Too much info....

Probably been posted already but this is a pretty good 0zeps mean for t300.. ..colder air in the trough coming down to southern Europe.. ...6z eps also looking good at t144 for south/south east.. wintry showers into the south east?

Mogreps are definately 'getting down'...thanks Matt for all your great uplifting posts throughout the year...hope new year is better for you.. ..well despite details still to be ironed out it still looks like 6th or 7th it starts to turn colder...looking further ahead towards mid month the signs of colder than average weather remain.. Eps 500 0z anoms.. ...showing considerable area of above average heights to nw and below average heights to the east from Baltics to med. looking deeper...at the mslp and anoms it still shows plenty of HP stretching up to the pole and low pressure trough to the east..although conditions on the ground will vary according to actual synoptic patterns... the 850 temp anoms also show quite a large area of colder than average stretching from the Baltics and east down to the med and of course covering the uk.. Wanted to post the gefs but for some reason the download froze...anyway point is i think once the colder than average weather arrives it will be with us for at least a couple of weeks if not longer..actual details will eb and flow and of course how cold and whether there is snow..however this is a better position to be in than a bog standard zonal westerly going on for weeks... ..finally just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year..hope those that are suffering can look forward to better times...and a thank you to all posters on here for making this forum as good as it is..the ups and downs all part of it...also thanks again to the educational posters ..you know who you are..i have learnt a lot but still of course..learning.. ...have a good evening...️

0z Ens anoms still solid with nw higher heights signal for the 7th.. ...and a little later even stronger with more emphasise on lower than average heights over Europe/ Iberia.. Eps looking particularly strong for the heights and the trough... Ensembles still.looking fairly solid for at least a colder spell.. Gefs 0z and 6z so far.. Ec 0z. ...good to see the ensemble signal staying strong and with the better ecm op this morning....looking more promising but still some time to go..so..steady as she goes...

Going down..

Checking in again on ens anoms for 7th.. Gefs, Eps, Geps 0z ..signal for higher than average pressure to nw still there..just get the feeling that it is getting a little put back..geps keen on troughing which is still to clear at this time.. ..eps ensemble graph still showing a more bullish colder turn from 6th or so this morning.. Gefs mean also lower than average... ...as others note the ops and means looking to go the way perhaps of a uk high...so change of sorts still likely..cooler or cold?..drier?..hopefully..we will see..

Again not a bad eps 850s 12z.. ..good clustering below the mean later in the run..

Well interesting that ukmo is keen to push in hp wedge from north east...won to watch perhaps.. ...meanwhile we end up with a uk high on the gfs..... it is not a bad position to be in.. ...opportunities to build north east..as for once Iberia high not an issue... ..gfes 850s looking reasonable.. ..certainly going for the rise in pressure .. ..so all in all not a bad place to be..a work in progress and facinating model viewing...ecm next

While the ops are more changeable than the weather (er ),.. the ens anoms still with the higher than average heights to the north west pattern for January.. Gefs, Eps , Geps 0z..7th Jan ...this ens signal has been consistent for a number of days now and although it doesnt guarantee full on winter it is i think significant of that pattern change once we get into January proper... ..indeed Eps 0z even stronger a further few days on.. ..looking at this 850s chart eps also showing pretty strong signal for downward trend .. 0z Gefs not as strong however mean still colder than average which is better than being warmer than average.. 6z ...factor in the background situation as very well explained by our more experienced posters then ..still all to play for as i see it......

Nice dip towards latter stage of 12z eps and clustering below the mean..

The control run has taken a 'deep dive'.... ..mean not too bad either...

Thats kind of what happened Mike.. ..pretty good nh pattern i would have thought with the exception of those heights that cannot be named...

Yes the right anomalie mean where we want them from a cold perspective...

Busy in here this morning...Looking again at the geo height anoms as predicted for January 7th.. Gefs, Eps, Geps 0z ...signal for height rises still good with gfes strongest...also noticeable how the European trough is getting more pronounced now...gefs showing lower than average heights over Iberia too.. ..no other comments as others have covered this well ..interesting to note though signal increases for gefs and geps a few days later..

So sorry to hear that....i know what it feels like having breathing problems...wish you a speedy recovery...take care and keep looking at those charts if you can

Looks familiar ??

Todays check on the ens height anoms modelled for 07th Jan.. Gfes, Eps, Geps 0z.. Gefs still the clearest i think re the distinct signal for the height anoms towards Greenland, Eps is more diffuse although core is still shown to the south of Greenland.. ..going on a couple more days the signal if anything intensifies for Gefs and Eps.. ..so basic signal still largely intact i would say although the eps /ec is showing that it is certainly not clear cut yet...things could still evolve the wrong way for cold as others are saying as this is still some way ahead in weather terms but, while being realistic, i will continue to have hope..which is what you need ..particularly at this time of year.. ..would just like to add my best wishes for a happy Christmas and 2024...credit to posters like @MATTWOLVES 3 who despite all they are having to contend with still manage to remain positive and provide positive vibe to others on here. This forum is so addictive and provides a nice relief from lifes' 'issues' that we all have to contend with...caring for sick elderly people and people with mental health issues is tough as i only know too well .. ..lastly thanks also to the posters who give up their time to explain the complexities of the atmosphere in easier terms...and it needs to be easy for me to understand ..it is much appreciated and i realise i still have much to learn.. Have a lovely Christmas day if you can...

Well i dont know about a white Christmas...i would just like to have a bright Christmas...the grey gloom is back with drizzle...yuck...anyways..happy Christmas and best wishes for 2024 to you all on here...may we get the weather we want as long as it is snow..

Another look at the 0z Gfes, Eps and Geps forecast for 0z on 7th January.. ...the Gefs showing the strongest and identifiable heights anom to the north west...also lower Iberian heights being shown on Gefs and Geps now although still only average...gefs and geps also showing the stronger lower heights to the east...variations as you would expect however basic pattern with the mid to north atlantic block i would argue is still being shown..onward..

Well nowhere near as brilliant as some of the previous pics but my daughter caught this from the car window as we were driving late this afternoon.. ..she was facinated when i told her what it was and where it was in the strat...

Thats what we want!

For patterns or trends i think this is the one i shall be watching everyday for the ens pattern as forecast for January 7th 0z to see if the currently modelled nh pattern can be held and even strengthened if we are to get better chance of colder weather in January.. Gefs, Eps and Geps 0z 23 / 12 Eps appears to have the strongest North Atlantic height anomaly while Gefs has reduced the anomaly to the south/Iberia...all showing lower heights over southern Europe ...broadscale pattern fairly intact though..checking in again tomorrow for 0zs