minus10

Gfs shows potential clash of air masses late in month. Crazy difference in temp over 500 miles or so.

The front is being squeezed out of existence over us. Such a pity as with the right circumstances this could have been a serious breakdown snowfall. Maybe i am being sentimental but when i was young in the 70s when we had cold breakdowns, more often than not the cold spells would go out with a bang. A lot of snow and then at the end a period of rain which i would always curse. Ah well , sign of changing climate i suppose.

That ensemble chart does definately not show below average temps from the 20th onwards. If it is true that at least part of the MOs forecast is only updated every 24 hours then this afternoons update should surely reflect the increase in temps. Interesting one...

Thanks, will check the next MO update with interest

Hi, i dont post in here often as i dont have the technical knowledge of some however one thing is bugging me. Can anyone explain why the met office in their extended outlook are still saying that from the weekend of 20 th feb temps will be below average with frost and fog when it is clear from the gfs/ecm charts that if anything temps will be well above average. I really thought the latest update from the MO would reflect this. Is there another model informing them differently or is this just a 'human' input into their predictions?

Air getting colder, the very low dew points and snow appearing in many eastern parts moving in from the coast. The area in suffolk was a surprise. Also a little precipitation making its way westwards from colchester. Is there going to be a last minute surprise.?

Back down to hertfordshire where it has been disappointing overall. Looking at those pictures from scotland reinforces the feeling that it is a different world up there as far as winter weather is concerned. We can only dream of those quantities of snow down here ,(apart from Kent/suffolk this time). It is true that if you include todays graupel then that is five days in a row that snow has fallen. Also these last few days have definately been cold. Also had some lying snow from Monday early morning so thats 4 out of 10 for snow. 5 out of 10 for temp. Just seems a pity with such a rare easterly synoptic set up for these times that we couldnt have had a better result. Certainly a few select areas did have 'beast' type snowfall and wind, but overall , no beast. Just a cold spell.

Haven't been to stanborough for ages Tim. Imagine it could be cold there at the moment, especially near the lakes. Few flakes here again this morning. Thats four days in a row that snow has fallen. Not bad I suppose. Still a little lying. Wonder if we will get any this evening before hard frost tonight. Hopefully not too much cloud to spoil chances of a good frost. Interesting charts again from GFS this morning..

Yes snowing moderately in wgc now

Some accumulation here on the grass and areas where there is a covering however all melted areas it just wont settle. Even though cloudy think radiation that does get through being asorbed by the dark surfaces.

-2 degrees and the snow is heavier now , been persistent all morning but gradually increasing in intensity.

Precipitation area to the north of me seems to be enlarging and gaining some strength looking at latest radar. Just on the southern area of that here in wgc.

A couple of cm's on the ground here in Wgc although hard to tell as being blown plus some melt on roads/pavements. yes overall disappointing although there has been light to moderate snow here this morning so far. Hope it continues at least.

I wont....This is , so far turning into a big big disappointment here in herts. It seems that the areas that start off with the snow end up with the snow and others dont get anything. Such a shame as this synoptic pattern is very rare nowadays and you just feel that when it happens you want to make the best of it . Such big weather systems with powerful forces at play however when it comes to snow , well it seems they are just not capable of producing it on a widespread scale these days. Are well, only weather.

Yes lets hope we in herts dont get caught in the no mans land between the wash and Thames streamers. As you say very frustrating day here. While i didnt expect much i did expect at least perhaps 1/2 cm?

Hi, first time post in here. Long time lurker. Can someone explain why the Gem and Para keep putting out 'cold' charts against the general trend of other models. If they are proving to always be wrong then what is the point of them. I dont understand it. Surely the data they use and the way it is processed cant be that different to the others?

Thanks staplehurst, i have noticed this before when you would think the temp would fall drastically only to find it is barely below zero. The complexities of the atmosphere...

Can anyone tell me why after a lovely cold day with a lot of snow about the temp has struggled to fall this evening in wgc. With all the lying snow i would have thought it would have dropped like a stone. Just now it was barely -1degrees?

Lovely to see heavy snow falling cant load pic at moment for some reason

Talk about stop start. Started again now. So so frustrating.

At long last it has started in wgc. Smallish flakes but hopeful. What an agonising wait.....

Good, hopefully not too long for welwyn then. Plenty to south and west on radar at moment.

This is insult to injury , sun still out. Seems to be fading before it gets here.

Dont believe it, now the sun has come out. Whats going on???

This is the most agonising wait for snow that i have ever known here in welwyn garden city......