Bolt From Blue

Nice to see some activity, cell just 20miles offshore here on Suffolk coast earlier gives me some hope for this evening/tonight. I would still say as others have said a good deal of this will end up in the North Sea should things develop later, I would want to see the Western extent of the plume engage around Brighton ( if the steering winds and trajectory of the plume are similar to this morning ). This would give East Sussex, the whole of Kent along with Eastern Essex and coastal Suffolk a good chance. Will be optimistic in watching today, have a good one!

Still powder here in east Suffolk, but yes it's looking like more convective elements getting into your area and also across north Norfolk too

Continental powder snow here on Suffolk coast since around 1830. Earlier snow and water on roads frozen solid underneath, large accumulations on open routes due to drifts. This is on par atm with 2018 round the area so will end up beating it. Schools closed to all key workers kids so no sideways action in my bus like the Essex boys. Take care if traveling in the area better still stay in.

Anything that can go wrong and would go wrong for the UK usually does, seen many times. There also seems to be an overwhelming amount of assumptions that this SSW will send us into the freezer. What if it's the 1 in 3 that has no impact? See first paragraph. So surely we must wait until the event has had a chance to happen and filter down, then look to see if the models pick up a more favourable trend, as the onset looks disappointing bar a few days this week. We will either get lucky or we won't and I will take a few days away from this to account for the above. I suggest anyone who can't control themselves do the same it works wonders.

Nope, wasted effort overall. The MCS died off just before reaching the coast, gave a few rumbles and one small IC. Its now just heavy rain, anyone in NE Norfolk prepare for little action from the complex. On a plus note some very active and extreme weather again for some areas that have missed this passed week, and some that have managed yet again, just to rub it in more. Still many areas with nothing at all though so I'm not going to complain any further. Might revise that NE Norfolk has a bit more activity just off Yarmouth

A roll of thunder to my south east, the MCS has nearly made it. I'm going outside now.

Awaiting the storm just off the Suffolk/Essex coast. This may turn out better than hoped given the latest updates. Birds have gone nuts and have perched on the Long Shop wind vane, normally happens when storms are close.

Still much claggyness here but the Calais to Lille line looks good. I'll be watching for anything firing in the south North sea as the trough moves up, signs of this possible. SB still on the cards for anywhere that has decent cloud breaks.

I told you it was my water. Cell over Eye out of nowhere, interesting afternoon shaping up.

The last CG I witnessed in Leistonia was 25th July last year, likely the best singular elevated cell I've seen. That thing was anvil crawling in broad daylight from some 20 miles away before coming onshore between Felixstowe and here, not surprising given the cloud tops were said to of been at flight level at the time. We did have a near overhead at 3am Friday morning here, so have not been stormless, but it was desperately elevated and dropped no rain or CG that I could see. I have a feeling in my water today and not because I've drank too much coffee.

Ok so a more classic type set up today with a real forcing mech in play. However such a small chance that hinges on the sun making an appearance nearly always fails for anything SB around here, that said the mid level energy that has been with us for days is still in play so if we don't see anything SB there could still be elevated storms embedded. The sun is trying to break here on the Suffolk coast for the 5% chance!

I wish I was there, all these wonderful pictures are changing my mood stuck here in the Triangle with nothing for days. But I cannot so enjoy and hold on if that is heading your way!

The storms in France are likely SB, if so we will see them fade as they enter the channel. If for any reason they can make it or become elevated then their current 25mph of movement puts them at least four hours away from the south coast, and some eight hours away from me. Given the last two nights of anything within range of the SE being weak I feel the above is a very tall order as much as I would love to be very very wrong.

Some desperate popcorn over Kent, South North Sea and over Calais moving NW.

Good luck to those running up the M40 later, too close to call for me with the distance I'd need to go. 1500 beer instead, then overnight we will see if anything is worth a crawl out to Cambridge/Kettering way as some have mentioned a few models pointing at.

Brickfielder highlights much better than I ever could what I mentioned earlier, current temps still look short, we need some lift, anything is still possible. I been chopping and changing my mind about driving to Stockport and staying at my mothers, I could be there for 1800ish, but my beer fridge is full. Yes I also forgot about the local lockdown up there!

The plot thickens, do I hit Stockport tonight and drop into my mothers which I could put up with for a good MCS. Or do I save myself and stay home or head south to Kent which isn't far, and see an average show. This latest Arome has not helped my choice. Ah just a decaying storm in the SE sadly.

Most places in the SB initiation area are looking short of 30 if indeed it turns out this is the cap breaker and we don't have anything unforeseen to give a bit of lift. With an 8 degree increase needed between now and 1500-1530 (given the temp won't rise anymore after this), It is any ones guess. The Ovlov 940 turbo is ready and willing within the next hour or two depending on those temps!

I was convinced enough yesterday to go on a rare chase, however it seems I may need to rethink my strategy. Wales is much too far. So with all the uncertainty what DO we know? 1. CW have taken off the MOD risk. 2. We need 30-32 to break the cap, currently looking too close for comfort. 3. Rapid development over the SW while nice to see might increase high level cloud over the initiation area this afternoon. 4. Here in East Anglia we won't see anything even though we will reach 30 because of an increase in 850 temps (ironic warm nose). 5. None of the above may mean anything. So I guess it will just have to be blind faith, patience and luck.

Yes peeling away to the east a touch now, plus the outflow feeding them has lost strength it seems. Time for bed, big day tomorrow chasing.

This was posted much earlier today.

Maybe an early hours surprise Kent Clipper? If that MCS is moving into NW France and continues to feed the outflow storms with enough lift then its a small shout.

If the weather won't come to the Triangle then I will go to the weather. It will be the first year on record that I've been convinced enough I need to do a long chase, I will go to Leicester services for 3PM which is somewhere in the middle and move west northwest if needs be. I have a feeling staying home all week will be bad (East Suffolk), by Weds/Thursday our luck will be destabilization in the North sea for the umpteenth time since I can remember.