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Everything posted by offerman
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Model Output Discussion 18/11/2012 12Z onwards
offerman replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
O/T... -
Model Output Discussion 18/11/2012 12Z onwards
offerman replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold now starting to show right on the edge of 1 week period so at leat thats getting nearer as opposed to 2 weeks off which gfs was showing continously for about 2 weeks now but always at the end of the run which is not good enough. So some excitment possibly to come within a 1.5 week period? Lets see what countryfile say this coming Sunday. -
Model Output Discussion 18/11/2012 12Z onwards
offerman replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest charts have us stuck under a huge low but Higher pressure over Scandi. Europe is quite warm at present so any easterly outbreaks will need to persist for a few days to bring in cold from there. However, i personally think our cold will come from the North/North-East with higher pressure over greenland and maybe lows running just south of uk but close enough to bring precipitation. i may be completely wrong and its only my opinion. IMHO no one can predict the weather with great accuracy especially more than 1 week out, but hey its all fun trying and gives us plenty to speak about. Our country does provide huge changes which is a good topic. -
Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards
offerman replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well i think its safe that we wont get any cold for the rest of november but better that way and hopefully december will bring some festive weather. Charts been showing atlantic weather through and through now. I still think winter might be a good one. Alreay had 1.5inches of snow here this year and 3miles away had 5inches so a good albeit breif start. -
Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards
offerman replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
AWD, Sorry if i misunderstood I thought Ian was talking about the West Country as thats where i see him forecasting on T.V for points West. -
Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards
offerman replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Ian, Now wouldn`t that be crazy if that happened again as it did here in Frome, Radstock, Bath, and other surrounding areas!! -
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
offerman replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Brady, Agree with that sentiment, the longer the charts keep pointing to cold then that synopsise will have a greater chance of happening. GaleForce, Agree with you about the similar pattern to 2010. -
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
offerman replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Brady, yes but if the charts showing the cold are always at the end of the run then they don`t creep in to the 1 week period as they keep shifting away. I.E first chart might of show cold 23rd November , but as the charts progress by day they keep showing cold but as the end and not following the days as they get nearer.So the elusive 1 week is a good target to really get excited about. -
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
offerman replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EML, A notherly might be better than an Easterly, The Easterlies of the 80`s were good , granted, but the 3 winters before last years bought good snow from lows running in or developing from the west or southwest and hitting in to the cold arctic air brought about by a huge Greenland High to Northeast Somerset. -
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
offerman replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi, are you the real Ian Ferguson off points west, or is this just a wind up? If it is then fair play to you and thanks for posting on here. How is Richard Anguin doing as havent seen him since he finished on P.W. Anyway, the charts are looking fantastic, if only they can stay that way nearer to the time. Still , certainly something to get us all buzzing. -
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
offerman replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I did post a link to a video that BBC Jay Wynn put out discussing mild/cold possibilities which links to Netweathers charts and that if it happens could be a high to our north and slightly east but the link dissapeared for some reason.t. -
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
offerman replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking good toward the end of November for cold spell potentially lenghty one as warm air gets pushed in to Greenland from Mid-Atlantic displacing the normal cold high cell over Greenland and pushing it in to the Atlantic just west of Ireland. These setups can change so far out but if these runs keep repeating then late Novemeber earluy december could be interesting.AIMHO of course. I`m no expert -
Southwest And Central Southern England - Regional Discussion
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
Now this chart looks very similar to the pattern seen the year before last when we had a very cold December, it will be interesting to see what the next run brings in a couple of hours time. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= -
Southwest And Central Southern England - Regional Discussion
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
Snowing very heavy here in frome, huge massive wet flakes and settlling. Not being funny, but i have seen any websites, netweather, weatheroutlook, bbc, met office or metcheck forecast this. How can they all be so wrong? Good covering now and still throwing it down. Has everywhere got snow? -
Any snow due in Wilts/Somerset tonight or tomorrow??
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Will it snow in Frome on Sunday 9.am as now being shown on Precpitaion charts on netweather?
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Frome also had fair bit of hail to but not 20minutes though. Will it snow in Frome, Westbury,Trowbridge? Anyone know how high these areas are above sea level? Also, How high is Cley Hill and Longleat Heavens Gate? Thanks I filmed a decent funnel cloud over Longleat from Frome last year, sent it to Points West but nothing came of it as think it went in to late to them..
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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 4
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
I heard earlier we could get dusting later tonight ? Anyone else heard this?Could Frome get some? -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
Got about 1cm here. -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
Still hammering down with snow here, not long before it will clear according to the radar on raintoday. -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
Snowing very heavy here in frome settling nicely on everything. To the person who posted some thumbnail charts showing what was raing and pink as snow ,many thanks and what site did you get those? -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3
offerman replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
Still raining here in frome, just the odd sleety bit nothing more :-( fickle weather, ,snowing in , caine,dorset,Poole, Swindon, Trowbridge,westbury,salisbury , surely it will start here in frome soon? Good luck to all those places where it is already, hope you get loads. -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2
offerman replied to kold weather's topic in Regional
Alex, Only jesting mate, look at your last but one post. -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2
offerman replied to kold weather's topic in Regional
Alex, Can i have chips with that please:-) -
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2
offerman replied to kold weather's topic in Regional
Very Dark clouds here in Frome now. Calne not far from here nor is Gloucester , Clane snowing, Gloucester raining. Uk`s weather certainly keeps us all guessing inc forecasters :-) Anyone want to see whats happening check out this link,Brilliant- http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Looks to me like the whole lot is intensifying as it moves South.