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Canalboy

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    SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    To play a well worn record, Greenland / Icelandic highs almost never deliver decent amounts of snow or extreme cold to the lowland SE.  Scandanavian highs are of course the Holy Grail to us; an E / NE  blowing from a frigid continent have become more and more elusive over the last thirty years or so.  These types of high pressure were always rare aves particularly in December and January but these days they are about as common as female train spotters.  Until I see any sign of pressure rises over this region I will remain underwhelmed. 

    • Like 1

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Canalboy

    Let's hope the Yanks have called this one wrong and the wrecking ball of low pressure that has appeared on the GFS for the 23rd is wrong.  This has previously been tracked further north but if that verified as shown the block would be flattened like a sapling in a gale.  Fingers and other protruding parts well and truly crossed that it is not showing on the other models later.

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I remain underwhelmed by the prospect of a Greenland High as is being mooted by the models for next week; they seldom provide anything better than 5 -7 degrees and cold rain for the SE.  This is based on empirical observation over the years. Even Icelandic highs tend to produce little in the way of proper wintry conditions down here. The track is just too far (less of a northern ice pack these days as well) and too mild by the time it reaches us.  Give me a Scandinavian High, now that is the holy grail. NE, ENE or E winds off a cold continent really do cut the proverbial mustard. 

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    Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 hours ago, yamkin said:

    I should have used better wording. In the year 2000, we were told, Snowfalls would be the thing of the past

    Yamkin you are perfectly correct.  Dr. David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit said in 2000, and I quote : “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”    Similarly, David Parker, at the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research predicted exacly the same thing, averring unequivocally that "virtual snow" would soon be the only way British children could experience this meteorological phenomenon.

    I could throw in a whole host of other pseudo Cassandrine statements ranging from erstwhile Education Secretaries to the Sindie newspaper, but this old line has become as tired as the earnest doom mongers from the seventies who told us that Europe would be under ice sheets in fifty years time.  I clearly remember watching a World About Us programme on BBC2 in 1976 wh9ich averred this as a certainty.

    I think the big problem is that a lot of people think they live on the cusp of some great catastrophe which, of course, never quite seems to happen, viz. Scared To Death by Christopher Booker.

    • Like 9
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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Dipping in here... statistically Spring is far more likely to deliver easterlies than any other time of year, northerlies as well..simple reason jet stream is at its weakest and temp differentials between tropics and pole become less marked especially second half of Spring.

    Many a time in May when we say if only it was January!

    Another annoyance is the way the PV so soften avoids the Siberian side these days; North America's gain is so often Europe's loss nowadays.  During the fabulous January 1987 event down here seventy plus fahrenheit was recorded in the Eastern US I recall.  I know it is possible to get cold weather in both the Eastern US and Europe but they are rare synoptics.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Until we see a definite pressure rise over the Scandinavia we'll receive little if anything wintry in the low lying South East, certainly East and South of London.  Greenland highs are fine for further North but for us North Westerlies (and increasingly Northerlies too) are normally marginal at best; they tend to have too much warm air mixed in with them unless they are very deep or further towards the NE. Northerlies also have a longer sea track these days than in decades gone by due to ice melt. I am old enough to remember snow fests of the past down here including 1978-79, 1981, 1987 and 1991 and the one thing that they all had in common is high pressure over Scandinavia pulling in winds from the NE /ENE/ E.  For some reason in the last twenty or so years highs in that region have become rarae aves indeed.   And yet in spring the Scandinavian highs often magically return.   Ironically the one time this winter when we did manage an Easterly the continent was very mild.

    I have yet to see a single flake of snow this winter and I know that there are plenty of others in the same flooded boat and I'm expecting nothing wintry today neither.

     

     

    • Like 5

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    A poor show by the BBC again for this locale (and by one remove the Meteo Group and ECM) as it has been light rain in Holland On Sea at my mother's since the first drops at 3:30 pm.  Their web site is as useful as a pair of gloves on a twice convicted Saudi Arabian shoplifter.  Not even a vestige of sleet.  The Sisyphean quest for the first flake of snow this winter continues and I have been peregrinating between Upminster and here throughout.

     

     

    I 

    • Like 1

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

    in Regional

    Posted

    And in 1483 Henry Tudor was forced to abandon his invasion to take Richard III's crown. His army landed in Pembroke and got as far as the Welsh Marches, but was stopped in his tracks by flooding in the Severn/Gloucester area. Nothing new.

     

    Btw - the late 15thC was around about the time of the start of the Little Ice Age which lasted another 300 years. Hope this isn't another one.

    Nice one mon fils.  I am glad that there is another calm soul who will read the facts rather than shake his hands.  Global Warming is a myth.

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

    in Regional

    Posted

    According to a dispassionate observer of my acquaintance, and my heart and virtual bucket go out to all of those wallowing under water, from a purely empirical position no month so far this winter has approached the 218 mm of rain that fell in October 1903, and the total rainfall of November 1929, December 1929 and January 1920 was 812 mm.  At the present rate, the rainfall for January, February and February, will be in the order of 650 mm; such levels are not unprecedented.  Long before Prince Charles started fiddling with his green leaning cufflinks or Al Gore hove into view.

    • Like 2

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

    in Regional

    Posted

    Fed,watered and listening to the wheelie big gp down my street!

     

    ..........and here`s a gif i made for us oldies. (AKA the mad thread gif). Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    Nice link, I loved Roobarb as a kid!  Bob Godfrey who did that boiling style animation sadly died last year.  It was serendipitous that marker pens had just come out in 1973 when Grange Calvely first created the idealistic dog. And anything voiced by Richard Briers has me entranced anyway.

    • Like 3

    South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14

    in Regional

    Posted

    Thanks, surely he can't be much longer!and he has to go straight to bed when he comes in.Not sure how to write that without it sounding rude.Oh while i was writing that the ambulance called and said it'll be here in about twenty minutes wit

    Ha ha I understand.  I've had eleven operations in four years and it's always so appreciated to have someone there for you when you get back in. I am sure it speeds up the healing process.

    South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 10/02/14

    in Regional

    Posted

    Worst storm I've experienced here was in October 2000 when we had gusts upwards of 75mph peaking at nearly 90mph.

    October 1987 was the classic I remember, St. Mary's Lane was cleared of bits of trees and other assorted impedementa on the Friday morning by Havering Council, but they stopped at the border where it became Brentwood.towards West Horndon.  The cars were driving East, then having to try and reverse back where the demarcation changed.  Utter and complete chaos ensued. 

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