seb

Looks like models have overestimated the impact of the onshore flow. We were meant to be at 27 but are touching 30. Less of a problem further inland where the models seem to be spot on. Right now it looks like two miles inland from the coast the temps match those modelled around 15 miles inland.

Indeed. In fact the last 9 weeks in this corner would not be very different to '76 if compared. Weeks on end with no rain, temps in the high 20s or low 30s and some days in the mid thirties.

The fact is that the large majority of summer 1976 saw sunshine and "normal" temperatures up to the low 30s. You cannot argue with factual records and regardless of your own memories, facts remain facts. The big problem in '76 was the drought (and as I said, take a trip to East Kent and you'll see that it's in fact not much different to then albeit we have better water supply infrastructure now... although there are several villages already which cannot be supplied with water).

What hyperbolic nonsense. There were not even handful days in 1976 that came close to today’s and tomorrow’s temperatures. The max was one day of 35.7 degrees. That is at least 5 degrees below the max expected for tomorrow. The drought in the SE is close to 1976. And lastly, compare and contrast

Yep same here. 26.6 to 27.6 in 15 minutes on the local WOW station. 19 degrees at 6:30.

26.6 to 27.6 in 15 minutes on the official WOW station

Wow. 18.6 degrees at 6:30 to 23.9 degrees at 8.

Ha! That’s what we said 2 weeks ago…

Have you read the content of the warning? If not then please do.

Off topic but while I read this Meteogroup/BBC and ECM only idea all the time, I don’t think that’s the case. Meteogroup itself says it uses a blend of GFS, ECM and UKMO and at times draws on DWD modelling, in particular for Central European countries. Their WeatherPro app uses GFS only (just like most other apps; I think it’s down to pricing structures). EDIT: scrap the bit about WeatherPro as it apparently also uses a blend but without human intervention as to weighing (e.g. when a feature becomes clear but is not shown on one major model).

Me too I said this early this week. Rinse and repeat.

I don’t think GFS can handle microclimates well. Looking at France and Spain right now, large swathes are spot on but there are a few areas where GFS predicted temps are 2 degrees too high.

Not any proper steady rain which is what is needed. Some showers which could be heavy but that’ll cause runoff and won’t penetrate the ground.

Not sure if the models do but the MetO does UK Fire Severity Index - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Met Office 5 day weather Fire Severity Index including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, pressure and UV index

So you can add the US, Canada, France, Spain, Japan and many others to that list. All of them issue heat warnings, they open cooling shelters, they cancel trains and a subway systems among many other things.

Really?! Not sure how you missed the emergency warning system broadcasts considering they interrupted TV, radio and were sent to mobiles.

He says GFS is overestimating temps at 168+ hours out. Extreme Temperature Diary- Thursday July 14th, 2022/Main Topic: Why a Faulty American GFS Model Is Leading to Alarmism – Guy On Climate GUYONCLIMATE.COM

Red severe weather warning yes, normally 24 hours in advance or closer but the Heat Health Alert system and the NSWSS warnings are closely linked and given the situation I'd expect both to go red at the same time and much earlier than 1 day before the event. Reasons are that this is a very different situation to our "normal" severe weather and required more preparation from more stakeholders. We also have a weekend which makes it difficult for the private sector to make changes they need to make. So we could go red after COBRA or there could be another meeting tomorrow morning, or it could be pre-agreed what else needs to happen before it's triggered.

Goodness there is some nonsense written today. For starters: 2-3 days above 36 degrees impacts nuclear power plants because they cannot use their cooling pools as they need to. This is on top of higher electricity consumption and has the potential to require rolling blackouts. Add in the lack of wind for wind-generated power. All ambulance trusts are already operating on alert level black with waiting times causing deaths. I hope none of the “no need for a nanny state” brigade needs an ambulance in the next week. The large majority of trains have no aircon. Vulnerable people should not be commuting. Tarmac melts at ground temps much lower than what is expected. Rail tracks buckle at ground temps much lower than expected. Water companies already can barely keep up with demand. Any power cut will make that worse on top of increased demand. Above all else, I’d hazard a guess that none of those posting this nonsense have experienced temperatures touching 40, let alone in a country comparable to the UK.

There doesn’t seem to be much of a cool-down after Tuesday on anything I looked at. Well that’s relative of course but most output seems to indicate little or no rain and mid to high 20s (away from the NW). If this holds then wow - what a summer!

In theory all that makes sense and in more normal political circumstances this is how it would work (although input would be thought from NHS, power grid operators, network rail etc.). Right now we also need to keep in mind that the head of UKHSA reports directly to the Health Secretary (who is that today again?!) so the current “too many snowflakes” obsession could well lead to no emergency being declared.

UKMO can’t issue a level 4 heat emergency, that can only be done after a Cobra meeting with all stakeholders and only by the UKHSA. In other words, it’s a government decision. UKMO can of course upgrade the current amber extreme heat warning to red. In fact that is probably the prerequisite for a level 4 emergency to be considered.

Just a note on the movement of the low, I have just watched the latest update from the excellent kachelmannwetter (I think Kachelmann is quite well known on these boards? If not I can post a bit of history.) and the team put it at close to 50/50 that the low will not move as far as shown in many model runs. In their words, it's a perfect setup for the low to keep wobbling and moving erratically between its current location and the Bay of Biscay creating a rinse and repeat pattern. Certainly some support for this in various ensembles, albeit a minority.

What was the reason for you picking my post when there are two others saying that same? His post still says Tuesday. If he meant Wednesday then fair enough although of course he could simply edit his post. Back to models now please.

He replied with “and rain” to a post saying it’ll be 100F on Tuesday. No rain on Tuesday. Wednesday different story although I remain unconvinced. Too far away and plenty of models going for a boring cool down followed by a reload. All FI though.