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seb

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Everything posted by seb

  1. The mean is just the average of all 30 possible scenarios. It's quite unusual to follow the Op closely at more than a week away. If you look at next Thursday for example, you got P30 throwing out 850 temps of 3 degrees whereas P06 is touching 17. The op is at 15.
  2. A number of long range models show below to well below average precipitation. They may of course be wrong. That said, given the last 8 months, the estimate that we would need 12cm(!) more rain than average to cancel out the lack of rain seems correct.
  3. Much bias? The MetO says this: 14-23 Aug: Temperatures initially cooling down to nearer normal and feeling humid, but returning to warm or very warm, becoming locally hot in much of England and Wales. 24 Aug - 7 Sep: […] some spells of rain or showers, most likely in the north and west. However, periods of dry and sunny weather can be expected in between. Temperatures are likely to be above normal, with the chance for some very warm spells. And that was of course based on yesterday’s output whereas today both GFS and ECM have different ideas, keeping very warm to hot temps all next week, away from the NW. In other words, as you were… rinse and repeat.
  4. The 00z gives us temps of 30-32 on Tuesday on Wednesday. Rain? If it sticks with this I doubt there will be any in S&E. Let’s see what the ECM will bring today. EDIT: Add 30 on Thursday and still 28 on Friday to that. Rain by Friday 0-2mm in a strip across the entire South Coast and up to EA etc. Exceptions London and parts of Essex where there seems to be some convective precipitation. And yes, I am not taking precipitation charts as gospel but the theme is clear and it's the same it has been for month. Rain modelled to then slowly vanish with each run.
  5. I normally would but the pattern for rain to fizzle out before reaching the S&E has been the same since November. In fact the only decent setup bringing heavy showers in this region in the last 6 months was a low stuck over Benelux spinning up showers from the East. That was in the last week of May which resulted in May being the only month this year where our rainfall wasn’t well below average. Every single front coming from the west results in a few drops here and the same applies to convective setups in westerlies. There is nothing anywhere which implies this is going to change unless you can point to something.
  6. So ECM and GFS agree on next to no rain (up to 4mm) for the S&E until next Friday. Temps good too. The GFS FI after next Friday… well, it’s what it modelled in the same run yesterday just to then remove it all in the subsequent two runs. Long range forecasts go for continued drought conditions. Let’s see what the models do in the next few days.
  7. Well latest Exeter long range kind of in line with GFS 6z. A little cooler, showers and storms mainly in the SW. I settled in the NW. Possibly a few storms across the South. Reload of the hot conditions. More unsettled late August but continuing NW/SE split with temps above average.
  8. Very unusual for sure. It isn’t like the heat in Spain or Portugal either. The only place I’ve experienced this kind of “heat feel” is in Southern California, in a narrow strip each side of the I-15 during weak Santa Ana events when the sea breeze is trying to “win” against the winds rushing down the mountains.
  9. I had not even looked at wind on the models and forecasts but did just now when I noticed how gusty it is. We have 20-25 mph gusts forecast all the way to Sunday evening. Not good for the wildfire risk.
  10. GFS 6z removes even more of the precipitation and apart from one cooler day (Wed 17th) has very warm to hot temps for the Southeast through its entire run. 30 or more on a number of days. Rinse and repeat. Pattern truly stuck.
  11. Hadn’t even looked at the 00z GFS. All rain removed. The luckiest areas in the desert regions see around 5mm by the end of the run. Either way, gone is the monsoon and instead the SE has temps of 35 on the 22nd! Edit: To make matters worse, that total amount of rain falls over three days with dry days in between and each “rain day” only has 1-2mm; in other words it will do bugger all. If this does come off as currently shown then the soil won’t even get damp.
  12. All FI of course and precipitation charts are never accurate but you couldn’t make this up… the “monsoon” shown by the GFS gives close to 50mm in parts of the desert but the 18z appears to have recognised the East Kent rain shield and manages to create a dry zone with a grand total of 10mm by the end of the run… and I’m right in it Oh and temps up to 30 on the 22nd! In fact, apart from 2 days at 20 we are in the mid to high 20s throughout. Let’s see what today’s runs bring. I think for now I’ll stick with the MetO and no significant rain.
  13. GFS 12z brings in an extensive convective front late 21 Aug into the early hours of 22 Aug across the East and Southeast, with high winds and flash floods if it comes off. Deep FI but that’s a new one lol.
  14. I generally agree, however the lack of hurricanes can't explain the weak jet stream since November last year. So something, somewhere is missing or has (temporarily?) changed.
  15. Yep. Continued very warm, locally hot away from the NW. Possibly some showers or storms then back to more settled into September. No breakdown. GFS 12z rolling out as we speak. Let’s see what we get.
  16. Guys, I don't think anyone is being aggressive and no one should be. We all have our preferred weather but just like there are some in winter who see cold and snow when it isn't showing on the models, there are a few here who for the past few months have seen breakdown after breakdown where models aren't showing one. I just went back to 23, 24 and 25 June so I won't be unfair but the posters who stand out anecdotally stated that models back then were showing an unsettled and cool pattern throughout the first two weeks of August, including rain in the S & E. The models didn't show that but they actually showed more rain than they are showing now until the end of their runs. For my location we apparently were due 15-30mm by 6 August. We had some drizzle and one 2 minute shower. You couldn't even see it on the hard, parched soil. Of course sooner or later there will be a pattern change but it is is extremely unlikely to happen next week, just as it didn't two weeks ago or the many times before it was apparently going to turn unsettled. Whatever causes the current pattern (a pattern that goes back to November last year, some short interruptions - for example Eunice - aside), it seems more or less stuck. Whether it's climate change or something else, I don't know but we it is what it is.
  17. There’s also this… /https://www.meteo-villes.com/actualites/double-jet-stream-ce-phenomene-qui-favorise-vagues-de-chaleur-et-secheresses//assets/favicon.png Actualités météo: Double jet-stream : ce phénomène qui favorise vagues de chaleur et sécheresses 06/08/2022 WWW-METEO--VILLES-COM.TRANSLATE.GOOG Récemment, une étude a mis en lumière les effets néfastes du double jet-stream sur l'Europe de l'Ouest et la France, favorisant les vagues de chaleur et les sécheresses. Explications du... explained well in a new French study. A pattern that does (in my opinion) not only apply during heatwaves but to a lesser extent has been in place for quite a while and does not seem to be displaced easily.
  18. No, no sign. A breakdown is commonly accepted to mean rain and a significant cool down. Neither the mean nor the large majority of ensembles show any rain unless you really want to count <5mm, spread over 5 days, at 8+ days away. The same has been shown at that range repeatedly over the last two months. It hasn't happened. The Atlantic has been MIA for most of the last 9-10 months and the jet stream has been weak. There is nothing to suggest, at this point, that this big picture pattern is changing. Every time low pressure is modelled at 8-10+ days it gets squeezed out or fizzles out into a weak front which by the time it reaches the S & E has no precipitation. As for temps, if you want to consider mid 20s in the middle of August as cool...
  19. Haha Not at all, rain is needed, badly! It’s the “breakdown” stuff when there’s no hint of a breakdown that baffles me
  20. Yep that's exactly the point I was trying to make. Convective precipitation in FI, GFS and ECM disagree and even the most positive ensembles show less than 10mm across large swathes of the parched desert areas. As for temps, mid 20s which is actually above average. So I'm just a bit baffled about some posts that appear as if wishful thinking has cancelled out skills and knowledge.
  21. As I said earlier, a transition to "normal" summer weather in the mid twenties. Nothing which we would consider a breakdown in normal times. Rainfall amounts close to nothing for the majority all the way to the end of the run. All the ECM has done between 12z and 00z is to move some modelled convective precipitation further East, which if it remains modelled in the reliable timeframe, would be welcome for EA. However, we all know to take storms or showers modelled at 3-5+ days with a huge pinch of salt, especially where ECM and GFS wildly differ. The South and SE however manage a grand total of <5mm by the end of the run... in other words amounts which will do nothing when falling on the ground. 12z vs 00z ECM and GFS 00z.
  22. UKMO results in great “normal” summer weather of mid 20s and isolated showers. GEM goes against every other model and has not been exactly great for the last few months so unless this scenario is modelled elsewhere I will ignore it for anything further than 3 days out.
  23. GFs 00Z reduces any precipitation across the S & E even further to now almost nothing by the end of the run. Total accumulated precipitation on 00z vs 18z below. Temps rising each day this week, peaking mid 30s at the weekend. Still touching 30 a week today and then settling in the mid 20s. No sign of any meaningful rain and nothing that would, in normal times, be considered a breakdown. Heatwave for 5+ days followed by summer weather we would normally be happy about.
  24. Almost all rain gone from the 12z GFS. In fact none at all until 19 August in large parts of the desert. After that some lucky ones (NW Kent and parts of Essex) may get something convective with up to 20mm just for the heat to then return.
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