feb1991blizzard
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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would agree but early thoughts from me is it could still pack a punch when it does, a lot of cold air could be bottled up & ready to go. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheshire Freeze Question is can we get something potent enough to deliver? like this. check out some of the March / April charts from the 50s, most of them better than the Jan / Feb combos from the 1ties and 20's of this century. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12z FI is a stonker, a penetrating N'ly wind and snow showers East coast with a widespread severe frost well inland. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Frigid More importantly than big though it must be sustained, you don't want the vortex lower down in the Atmosphere and high up trying to relocate to opposite sides of the pole at the same time, that's asking for trouble and nearly always ends in disaster, spli would be better but no sign of that. EPS not bad in FI. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheshire Freeze You have - slight concern is it might be perfect synoptics firing blanks, unless GFS 6z 384 verifies, would be a treat. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dennis Love the optimism Dennis - love your posts, however, no evaporative cooling with those windspeeds, trough running into a past week of high temps. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dennis Not bad. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy I would prefer a more conventional spilt, pacific to Atlantic - eg - Jan 09 & Feb 18 -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Met4Cast I can see a big neg nao happening final third March - totally strat related. got a feeling it will be a warm Easterly though. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
looks a very weak unfavourable .MJO signal -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dennis The 850 windflow chart don't look special to me, don't you need a thicker band of continual Westerlies nearer to 180 degrees? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy yes, i am thinking this (mid march) will deliver the blocking but too late!, just an (irrelevant) sidenote though, not all EC46 members show this upcoming one to be a reversal, not sure about EPS & GEFS. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dennis Yes - noticed that, i have a feeling of very very strong blocking regime late March, i might do a post later if i can find all the charts i need, unfortunately though because the transition is likely mid March or after, most on here will hope my forecast goes as well as the rest of mine this winter. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Don Thought so - i was hoping against hope though that it would be the reverse of what usually happens when the models lead us up the path but the Met stay resolutely mild then the models implode in about 3 suites, doesn't seem to happen the other way though. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Met4Cast Whether or not a technical SSW is now irrelevant, they aren't going significant negative for any length of time and its a (unfavourable) displacement not a split. -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Methuselah Cant understand why they've kept wording of 16-30, there is absolutely nothing to suggest Easterlies for that timeframe, Northerly toppler at a push but more likely NW flow, SSW or not (possibly unfavourable displacement now but remains to be seen), you would see more evidence by now of an E'ly for late Feb / Early march, definitely not out the question by mid March. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
KTtom If i'm kidding myself like stated above, not bad, not bad, a ridge does get to within 1000 miles of where it needs to be. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
feb1991blizzard replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The models at the moment remind you of when you first have a go on the decks, you post a chart with a PM -4c flow at 384 and go 'not bad, not bad - there might be a dusting on Ben Nevis or Scafell Pike', like when you mix a tune in and the pitch control is about -2 away from where it needs to be and go 'not bad', but really it sounds like feeding time at the zoo.