feb1991blizzard

Met4Cast

northwestsnow Lukesluckybunch GEFS downgrades longjevity, lets hope for reload by 384

that was just the starter, now comes the main course, proper cold spell in-bound. Hemispheric pattern sir! - ties in with the 46

northwestsnow Haven't seen 168, 144 didn't look dissimilar from GFS, we don't want anymore stalling out west re-invigorating the low, yes it could give a more widespread dumping but it also risks rain.

GFS 0z is a stonker.

Mike Poole Yes - i think another displacement SSW towards the Siberian sector is highly likely, not wholly sure we actually want or need it though.

46 - 19th onwards looks very undercutty.

TBF Nick, i don't mind shortwave frenzy over the uk in an Arctic airmass, i hate shortwaves in the GIN corridor when your initially trying to get an Arctic / Polar continental airmass in via blocking.

Poor GFS 6z in short term (not wholly unexpected) but the whining in here is OTT over one op, when its nowhere near the target date for expected cold.

northwestsnow This is the transition week.

blizzard81 This is run of the day - eps 12z p26, brutal cold and an almighty bizzard. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php?code=26&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0

Lukesluckybunch or can we.

Johnp Yes, was going to say in all this long range excitement, wondering if 18z GFS was going to get lost.

Don is that a shock emoji? - i did edit to add my reasoning, could be one of the most bizarre Februarys ever.

Eps look good to 240

6.5c and 78mm please. Don't be fooled into thinking i am bailing my cold spell prediction. its just that i think the first 8 days are going to be so hideously mild (poss 11c+) and the deep cold may not arrive until 20th (if indeed it does)

GFS is going for a quick kill in a few frames.

northwestsnow If anything the modelling has strengthened, yes i know flatliners can appear without blocking and they tend to be outlier solutions that are noise and get watered down nearer time, so i think we need to actually see a mean FI ridging N'wards chart for this thread to really catch light (there are tentative signs already), this isn't and never was a write off, plus your location's a stonker, the only problem for you is what pub to go to to watch the snow, the star had already gone before my time, Three Crowns or Austerlands Social?

Everything going tikety boo all according to plan this morning, sig cluster flatlining -8c now, this is all before the real cold hits (with lag from MJO 7-8 transition)

Even deeper trough over Europe end feb now.

@Summer Sun It says its up until 29th. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

@Jacob can't be the latest ECM it was garbage.

The way the output is (including 46), we could be looking at record breaking mild early feb, average to cool mid feb, record breaking cold end feb.

There's the 79 chart, SW England burial job.