feb1991blizzard

@blizzard81 For me to start getting excited for 5th-7th(ish), its going to take a lot more than one 12z suite, and it certainly would for the Met office (though excited would be the wrong terminology for them!)

@bluearmy Agree - although i think it'll keep getting pushed back (lagged MJO 7 composite ties in with 30 dayer) and the despondency will get worse before it gets better and by the time the bonkers FI runs start again the 'its not worth a 3rd week feb spell i want spring' brigade will be in full voice.

a few weeks of mild to get through before pattern change late feb, lets hope we can get a sting jet at some point before then.

@johncam @Don Yesterday was obviously a holding forecast (although surprised it only lasted a day), they knew the chance of cold arriving first half of month was receding, but probably didn't want to call mild until 21st and wait too long to change back again as EC46 (and guessing GLOSEA as well now i've seen this) still showing genuine HLB late feb, could also be in relation to MJO forecasts among other tropical pacific activity.

GEFS looking like they will contain some N'lys in FI. PV draining from Greenland more than 6z.

Point of my last post was they are surely being slightly contradictory, as surely they would be saying an increased chance from East is equal to a very low likelyhood of snow, i can't think they would call a dry Easterly at that range.

Pick the bones out of this then. Into early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.

yes Hopefully but they do use Global teleconective drivers to predict our weather and the GDSM products weren't great this morning, whether they use them or have their own methods i don't know, but they won't just go off computers alone at those ranges.

Taking a while, they must be downgrading.

The whole of feb or just the first half? Might the AAM charts look better in 10 days time with a downstream response mid feb?.

You have now, its more NE Scotland the red though.

calmed down a bit, was really severe, was hoping for a sting jet, any chance?

Where is everyone? - i know the means are still flat and its only a couple of long range ops but when has this thread ever not gone mad over the aforementioned? in fact it was busier the other day when flat with a big Greenland PV was showing practically unanimously across all suites.

At least there are quite a few runs lately really weakening the tropospheric vortex over Greenland, where not so long ago that wasn't the case. perhaps a response to this.

Decent displacement.

Sorry Roger - meant last post in strat or mod thread.

Just for clarity now then, has the Arctic express been permanently derailed and is it by the stratosphere overriding in the wrong way or overriding in a good way but not long enough.

Torpedo fired on 6z GFS - watch this run .

Suggestions on the 6z GFS, tad early for Greeny though for me that.

Ah right, i don't have a dogs something phone, prefer laptops for all things internet.

How do you get those updates quicker than me? - still not updated for me yet. Anyway sounds like a UK high early month retrogressing to Greenland / Iceland mid month. would tie in well with some current modelling.

Thanks. It does look like a very good fit to me wrt modelling now, problem is 7 looks like sceuro rarher than scandi,, saying that though, i always remember Stewart used to say, there's always wiggle room when near month end, and not to take them too literally.

What is 6-7 late jan-early feb composite like for us? suspect it needs to be more 7-8(ish).

I can see a scandi but not orientated favourably to bring deep cold to UK, you may do ok.

Looks like it wants to have a griceland retrogression after a scandi fail, for a good few ens means now, but looks to me like it just won't get there, wonder if catacol / tamara / scott/ Eagle eye see enough in the GDSM to indicate enough oomph to get a ridge far enough North, its looking to me now indicative that the few outliers that do get there are modelling the tropics wrong, rather than being trendsetters. I must admitlooking at just 500mb ens means and 10mb eps mean, if there were no GDSM available, i would be calling this next go a bust already.