feb1991blizzard

Yes - although there could a huge irony here, with that negatively tilted Greenland trough diving SE, it could give us the biggest dumping of recent GFS runs.

Yes, its all going wrong now - very wrong.

Agree with last 4 or 5 posts.

6z looking like a better run than 0z, i actually prefer the Atlantic trough nearer as the last run it attracted the cold trough to the NE to spill too far into the Atlantic

Told you shortwaves derail cold spells, the magic roundabout has knackered us after all.

remember - we've already had 50mm to the 6th Jan, that is half, i can't see Jan coming out below average now, i went for 87mm in the competition, wishing i'd gone for well over 100mm now.

Hang on, Hello, could we get a 384 Easterly?

Yes, usually the reward when this happens is at least you stay locked in, this run neither gives us a washaway pasting or longjevity.

The pseudo magic-roundabout isnt something we want repeated in the morning, the last thing we need is a split flow in Scotland, all energy into France please. yes.

quite

Although it has just got a bit better but not sure it will get far enough south.

mean isn't spectacular though it has to be said.

Still a cracker though in short term with that trough forming North of Scotland in a deep arctic airmass, longjevity might be a problem but somewhere gets a pasting first though.

it says it's updated to 7th but clearly that is ollox, there's no way it could have stayed on 8.2 the last 3 days.

Agree to a point - but- try this for size though if you want low uppers.

Belter inbound! - should just make it - somewhere should get a hiding.

Wasn't that Jan 2004, Birmingham came to as big a standstill as 7th feb 1991 when it was an inch or 2 as opposed to not far off a foot. wasn't the last one Jan 2015?

Yes - pity you don't have the same 500mb heights as feb 1st 09. Low 520s dam with -13c, at this time of year - much earlier (warmer SST's) you would get a proper tonking - absolutely smashed.

How good compared to 12z yesterday?

GEFS - corker!!!

unfortunately the low 10th percentile is where we need to be for a proper cold spell.

I have always said this is the reason we cannot achieve anything remotely approaching perfection with extended range forecasting, the computing power is there, the understanding of science is there, the programming skills are there, but you will carry on getting diminishing returns without huge increases in weather stations and balloons, potentially in next few years you will have the capability to reduce grid size and increase no. of vertical layers on global models to that of the ukv etc, and still run them to D16, but unless you have obs data, you'll be leaving a lot of the grid blank so there's no point.

Yes - yet another one.

Its a big improvement

Just wondering about comment on twitter the other day (think it may have been Liam Dutton) that because of the topography, modelling of Greenland highs is poor, i wonder how the met office distinguish between a real GH (ie - one thats likely to verify) and a faux one, because they were rock solid about Dec 09, Nov and Dec 2010 from a long way out, how did they know they were not just going to implode within D8-10.