feb1991blizzard

Yes - although ridge doesn't gain as much traction as 6z suite.

Has anyone actually got the GLOSEA charts?

Even though we saw the coldest spell of weather in 250 years in Jan following a mild Dec during an El Nino.

Which is why i can't understand the despondency, we were always unlikely to see HLB early Jan, what were people expecting to see out of a Torquay hotel window.

Talking of the GFS 12z in the stratosphere.

As long as it doesn't cancel it then that's ok

I have never seen the obsession with control runs, Yes i do post week 2 op charts from time to time but at the time they come out that is the only data available for that suite, where as the control run comes out the same time as all the other members, so by that point you have much more data including means and spreads, nothing wrong with posting an eye candy JFF control but can never understand the stock placed in it and the panic when it doesn't show the desired outcome.

Id be going short on that, anyone who thinks this winter is going to carry on with blowtorch BBQ 13c max's until March is living in cloud cuckoo land and likely in for a rude awakening.

Yes, crackers all round tonight.

lower and lower, the most concentrated cluster now showing a reversal.

eps are an SPV stretcher.

yes - upper level divergence in -10c air in Jan !

Yes, still would like to see a split though just to make sure.

Yes - Genuine stonker there, look at the hemisphere as a whole, locked in, that chart that early in Jan screams CET<1

not sure - it could recover a bit and then get destroyed by wave 2 as it might still be weak, hopefully we will get a cold spell then a split will occur to prolong it into February, in other words everything will go our way (for once).

Think the GEPS would be looking very splitty a few frames later.

Great educational post but can i be a pain and ask what a PJO is please?

Just a quick one - when you were checking pre-cursor patterns the other day, were you distinguishing between splits and displacements?, i read a paper once (not sure if it was on Judah Cohen's Aer page or could have been posted by chionomaniac on an old strat thread), it showed there were different pre-cursor patterns for splits and displacements.

Some snorters coming out very soon me thinks - trust me this place is gonna be fing rockin' the next few days. And voila........ here comes the slider with a stonking scandi ridge about to be carved.

No guarantee it would even without the Hadley cell expansion.

Some people might say whats so special, its not that frame but run it through last few frames, its the speed its gaining latitude at, wouldn't have been that many more frames until it got there (Iceweigan high)

Well well well - look whats on the menu back end of GEFS mean.

Cracker! - in strat and trop.

It could have been either - Jan 87 featured the coldest spell of weather in our lifetimes, Feb 86 featured the coldest month as a whole in our lifetimes except for those born before 63.

To be honest on the GEFS, i am beginning to worry more of a fizzler occurring, loads of members where the warming wanes significantly before doing enough damage, saying that i am not disagreeing, in fact i actually think the GFS was better in the strat about a decade ago when i first started looking at strat charts, the 'upgrades' have in fact been downgrades IMO.