feb1991blizzard

Its going to come good though, albeit into FI territory which is short, given the uncertainty.

Graph - best of winter so far.

Nothing wrong with eps still.

Just one run but 18z GFS very different in the strat, point i am trying to illustrate here is first Split vortex SSW may have bitten the dust but re-enforcements may not be far away, if this keeps going on in the upper strat.........

Certainly nothing wrong with ext eps graph, these for the Midlands so no cherry picking.

The implications are the split SPV is a definite bust which probably means we wont see persistent HLB and therefore long lasting severe cold but the Met Office are bullish about spells of below average temps and wintry hazards for from sooner than week 2 for more or less the rest of jan so it doesn't mean winter is over like some on here will no doubt call.

Must admit though i don't like this.

Not aimed at you, aimed at half the thread, 50/50 is great, do the maths, by random chance what would the odds be? how many days on average for most places per year have of falling or lying snow, your going to get marmalised at some point, you'll have to change your username to Kasim euro trough Awan.

Some very strange comments in here this morning, the narrative in here lately is that there's nothing showing on models, then when something does 'it won't verify anyway', what is the point reading the thread ever then??!!

It is now.

Even when the GFS was showing the decent splits the other day, they looked temporary and were re-phasing.

Not necessarily, there's other drivers for this (upcoming) cold spell, if it was purely strat led and we had a strong polar vortex, then nothing on the strat charts showing this morning would be good enough to do enough damage in the trop in my opinion, but we don't.

It sort of .splits but then re-phases,

correction to my above post, unsure what time analysis chart on EC46 is (used to be 0z) but the same principle applies, it has its own starting data now, not run off end W2 eps.

No - 2 different models, one showing a 26% (13/50), the other showing an overwhelming chance of an SSW, both 12z runs.

I must admit i feared this after the eps 0z mean 10mb height chart but more particularly GFS suites, although 12z GFS op was an improvement on 00 and 06.

They might be very messy and not clean large or very high in latitude but these FI blocking highs to our North are almost becoming a majority solution now on op runs, well before we really have any god given right to expect them.

Yes - i am slightly concerned about the GEFS / GFS last 2 suites, 0z op was technically a split but the one daughter vortex was a tiny little thing trying to cling to the Siberian segment - smacked of residual energy over Greenland if it imprinted on the trop, the 6z had a more regulation split but was nowhere near wide enough and was trying to re-phase again by end of run, the GEFS mean look like the cold area is growing by end of run.

Yes - the SSW is days away from happening yet, i understand the concept of a quick trop response but that would have to be a clairvoyant trop response!

GFS op not quite as good in the strat but apart from that, crackers all round again on the 0z - ridge more defined on the GEFS.

What i can't understand this time though is the split SSW isn't even forecast until a good few days into Jan and so any FI blocking is still probably 2 or 3 days early, so its the writing off of it before the generic trop to surface modelling has even had chance to pick it up, not got a problem with calling it as it is. i will be the first one to call it a bust if it does bust but we aren't even close yet to that happening.

difficult to be precise but -5c max temps, nightime anywhere between -5c and -15c depending on location wind speed and cloud and snow cover.

First -15er to come out, give me more of these, this is when the buzz starts to kick in for me, them slushy deposits don't cut it.

Told you!

Last 3 eps T360 means. Another step nearer.