matty40s

outhern Plains... A classic "second season" severe event appears to be in order for parts of the Southern Plains this afternoon and evening, featuring tornadoes, large hail and severe gusts. The greatest threat will be bound on the north and west by the cold front and dryline, covering parts of OK and north TX. Severe potential should persist into tonight toward the Ozarks/Ouachitas, Arklatex region and parts of north and central TX. For much of the day, the boundary layer across the southern Plains near the front and dryline will remain capped, restricting substantial vertical mixing to the boundary layer, and permitting moist advection amidst heating/destabilization. This capping will be maintained into early/mid afternoon as a modest EML and some relatively warm midlevel temperatures move over the area, downstream from -2 to -4 deg C 500-mb temperatures analyzed over northwest through southwest TX and northern MX at 00Z last night. However, strong height falls and cooling aloft, along with strengthening mid/upper flow and deep shear, will occur mid/late afternoon ahead of the strong mid/upper trough. A north-south corridor of peak/ preconvective MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg should develop from central TX northward to southwestern/central OK. Meanwhile frontal convergence/lift near and northeast of the dryline should act on diurnally weakening MLCINH. By the time of deep convective development (likely in the 22-00Z window), the parameter space over portions of southwestern/central and south-central OK ahead of the front and dryline will support supercells, with surface dew points into the mid 60s F, 50-60-kt southwesterly effective-shear vectors, and a strengthening LLJ that will enlarge hodographs. Effective SRH should be favorable from the outset of first storms' maturity, increasing into the 300-450 J/kg range this evening. This will support a cyclic tornado threat from any sustained, discrete supercells, which also will offer a damaging-hail and severe-gust hazard. The big hodographs also will persist eastward after activity evolves to more quasi-linear modes and backbuilds into parts of north TX, supporting continued tornado potential. Damaging-gust threats should expand eastward and southward as the convection does likewise this evening.

...and a long distance view of the actual North Flank collapse

Death of a drone, although why you would knowingly fly where this one goes... Good video following the collapse of the North wall of the crater showing blocks the size of houses being carried along

Finer detail becoming clear now.

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1446808216046764034?s=20 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1446657521481961476?s=20

Are stormnchasers and meteo people not allowed a sense of humour, yes, its a joke, but there is quite a lot of excitement over there for this setup. This is actual for Sunday into Monday.

Unfortunately, the lava flows have taken a new track, over to an existing and very fertile lava outcrop from the previous eruption in 1971 from Teneguia

Stove is all ready to go, we had it in over night on tuesday as it was miserable and very chilly, been out ever since. Our boat tends to gain solar heating still , so is warmed through in the evenings. We will probably light it again at the next damp spell, and it will almost certainly stay in then until next Spring....quite easy to keep it going for up to 48 hours.

Start to finish on satellite

Theres been a few happenings this last month, however, a large outbreak expected on Saturday to Tuesday

..and what the people on the ground are looking out for...

Absolutely insane drone footage.

Sam and Larry have done their best to remove energy from the Atlantic. Best hope for late season may be the Caribbean and gulf

Sam continues to plod along pretending that Northness doesnt make any difference....

Some amazing meteorological occurrences happening around La Palma.

That looks like Crick DIRFT from about 10 miles away every night.

It is now a 3 headed dragon, go to 1.35m to see how fast the lava is flowing...

Cracking lightning here... Live Cam Port of Giglio Island WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Live Cam View of the port area of the Giglio Island

Vast amounts of molten magma being thrown out of the lower vent at present.

Quite spectacular just NE of Leicester. Along with this decaying one...