su rui ke

Yes, but that's the whole point - he's not a harmless eccentric. He gets quoted in the general media as a 'leading meteorologist', which means that when his forecasts are wrong most of the public just puts it down to 'them' getting it wrong again. He also uses his forecasts (and the wider media) to pursue his anti-Met Office agenda. For those reasons, his forecasts deserve close scrutiny.

Oh dear - there was a full-page article in today's Sunday Post about 'leading meteorologist' PC. It was a pretty rubbish, sensationalist article consisting mostly of quotes from our man, none of which, of course, were challenged. The worst bit was that he supposedly correctly forecast the windspeeds in last Tuesday's storm (which the poor old Met Office didn't naturally). Now, there isn't much wriggle room in this statement so, if he didn't make such a forecast, he really shouldn't be allowed to get away with this one. Did anyone see this forecast? Oh, by the way, the main point of the article was that there is 'worse to come' this month - storms that is, and these mostly in the south. So, I hope you guys down there are ready!

Aye, Scandinavia may have its winters and the Mediterranean its summers but when it comes to horizontal sleet we are surely the best!

Who knows, it might ease off ... Actually a bit sleety up here on the 'hill' (100 m or so)

Tay Road Bridge is completely closed again according to their website. On XC Weather, however, Riverside is reading gusts of less than 50 mph???

I must have missed the reference to yesterday's storm in his December forecast(s) then!

Thanks, LS - and BleakMidwinter. That's a mid force 10 then. I don't think it's quite as bad as that here!

Are those lower speeds on XC weather sustained speeds? - 59 mph at Leuchars??? We don't see those sort of speeds on this side!

And, finally, we've got some snow here. It's very light - but proper flakes.

Very dull here now - not expecting much snow this near the coast but you never know. I'm thinking this could turn into a nasty rush hour in some places though.

Well done, LS. Even if your forecast doesn't turn out to be right, it's still one of the best written and put together I've seen!

This thread is turning into a bit of classic. It's starting to remind me when we had Ken Ring (of moonbeam fame) on.

44.6F! I do hope the authorities are prepared for the likely chaos.

No, it is scientific to produce predictions, based on the best understanding of the atmosphere that we have, and including error bands - which is what the IPCC does. Anyone who does say that they can predict what the global average temperature is going to be in 2064, or whenever, is probably a charlatan - we won't know how good a fortune-teller they might be until the time arrives. Saying that the predictions are pointless because we don't know what future emissions of CO2 are going to be also, well, misses the point. As has been said, there are different scenarios produced by the IPCC based on different possible levels of emissions, the whole idea behind which is to allow policymakers to make decisions. No-one is saying that CO2 levels in such and such a year are definitely going to be at such and such a level. Also by arguing this (that the prediction cannot be made) you are implicitly admitting the connection between CO2 emissions and temperature rise.

We are warmer because we are on the eastern side of an ocean. Most of the air that reaches us has to cross that ocean and warms up by the time it gets here. That in itself is more important than the existence of the Gulf Stream - the Gulf Stream makes the water slightly warmer than it would otherwise have been but it is not the most important factor affecting our winters. Remember the Gulf Stream also passes close to Newfoundland!

The article you posted a link to claims global temperatures have dropped by 0.7C since 2007. The global average temperature anomaly for 2007 that I have is 0.55 and (so far) for this year it is 0.67. The 30-year running averages for those two years are 0.33 and 0.38, respectively. I do not, therefore, have any problem in acknowledging the recent lack of sunspots and still thinking that the global temperatures are rising.

That might be correct for oil - although all of these things are very hard to predict. I think there is still 'a lot' of coal down there though and would be very surprised if production is anywhere near a peak. Whether you would want to burn it all though is another question.

It's not over yet! Chance of the record going again tomorrow or Thursday? http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/58?

Well, it hasn't made it here yet - although I can see the orange glow in the east.

... and with 'Winter of 2010' t-shirts!

One thing about this cold spell is that it's great for learning how the models etc. translate into real weather. I still don't know much but it's a lot more than I did a few weeks ago! Perhaps we should have a big party when it's all over ...

Was just watching the BBC and they are still going for the possibility of -20 somewhere this weekend so it looks like they are favouring the 'local cold is enough' option for now.

Thanks, BT. So there's likely to be a trend towards less cold wherever the high is?

To pick up on what Snowplough was saying, for quite a few runs now the GFS has been wanting to let warmer air into the developing high over the weekend. However, the other models have the high slighly further north and keep us in an easterly. Presumably that would see the cold continuing? Could a slight change in the position of the high make all the difference?