su rui ke

Based on Philip Eden's quoted CET of 19.84 for 1-25, and the OOZ GFS forecast temperatures, I now get a final figure of 19.7C - not much change, but it is noticeable that the forecast temperatures for Saturday have risen significantly. If that trend continues there might not be all that much of a correction in the last few days. (I am assuming a 'mean' CET of 16.5C for the 31st in these calculations - that could change too tomorrow.)

Not yet, but a meteorologist interviewed yesterday on TV said he expected the rain from this storm to last for three or four days. We won't know the full effects for some time yet.

Well, it still looks like there will be more days between the 25th and 31st that have a CET over 20C than there will be anywhere near as low as 14C! The 25th and 26th could have CETs of around 23/24C. I originally estimated 19.5C for the 25th-31st - that was assuming average temperatures for the last two days. I will make a new estimate today based on the latest GFS.

Depends which figures you are using - the 19.5C Hadley record looks very likely to be broken but the 19.9C (Manley) I still think probably not.

Oops. OK, 19.7 is about where it should end up for July. I'll go for 17.8 for August then - for no other reason than that!

Can anyone confirm that it's 17.5C that's needed to make 2006 the warmest summer on record?

Just to update, Kaemi made landfall at Jinjiang in Fujian province at 0850 GMT today. It is still heading northwest at about 20 km/h - so more or less directly inland.

Yes, the pictures I saw on TV after Bilis were about the worst inland destruction I have seen due to a typhoon in China. Whole villages were swept away and several hundred, at least, killed. Worryingly this latest storm looks like heading into the same region. They really don't need that down there at the moment.

No, it's not out of reach - I just think it's maybe about 75/25 that it won't be! Obviously the hotter the next few days are the more chance 20C will be broken and I was perhaps being slightly conservative with my estimates for the next few days. As you say, it will be very close. It just has to be remembered that the current CET (19.7) has been reached after two very hot spells of weather and asking it to go even higher and stay there is asking a lot! But maybe, just maybe it will ...

I don't thing the final CET is going to break 20C now but 19.5 might just be achievable. If the forecast temperatures from the GFS turn out to be accurate, then I think the CET will have reached 19.9 by the end of Thursday. Friday's temperatures might be high enough to hold it steady but there could be a drop of about 0.2C on Saturday. If the cooldown at the end of the week is short-lived then 19.5 could well be broken but, as I said, 20C is looking out of reach unless there is a quick return to very high temperatures on the 30th and 31st. This far into the month the remaining days have less effect on the figures but the current CET is so high that holding it at this level is difficult! It might just about reach 20C for a time this week but whether it can stay there is a different matter.

One thing anyway - I think this July being at least the second warmest July in the CET series is pretty safe!

In fact I reckon the CET for the last 9 days 'only' has to be 20.7 for a final figure to reach 20C. The mean for the next five days might be that high but after Thursday it's looking very doubtful I think. Of course, if the next few days can exceed 20.7 by a significant margin then it leaves more space for even a sharp cooldown not to bring the final CET back below 20. Realistically, going by the latest models the final figure could end up just below where it is now - a modest rise over the next few days followed by a slightly bigger fall. There is a good chance of the record for July being broken but it's going to be close I think!

It look like the CET has a very high chance of ending up somewhere between 19.5 and 20.0 and giving the warmest July on record. Philip Eden has it at 19.7 this morning and the next few days look warm enough to nudge it a tenth of a degree or so higher. It looks warm until Wednesday at least so that leaves only five days for any correction. To push it as high as 20C would need some more very hot days at some point but, equally, for this month not to be the warmest July in the series would need a much cooler 26th-31st. (A mean of 17.5 for those five days would bring it back to just about 19.5.)

Take the current CET and multiply by the number of days already included in that (21 x 19.91 = 418.11) add this to the number of remaining days multiplied by the average for those days (418.11 + 10 x 16.56 = 418.11 + 165.6 = 583.71) and then, finally, divide this by the total number of days in the month (583.71/31 = 18.83).

It looks like the CET could push through 20C by next Wednesday and if next Thursday and Friday are as hot as the GFS suggests, that hardly leaves any time for it to fall back below 20. It must be more likely than not that the July CET record will fall now.

A couple of cool days (or warm days) at the end of a month never make that much difference to the figures - unless they are something really exceptional. If the CET was 20C on the 29th, say, then a couple of cool days (CET of 13.5) would bring it down to about 19.6. So, the CET wouldn't really tumble but it could be that it's enough to stop a record being set. Anyway, it's still too early for those sort of calculations really. Let' see what the next few days bring first!

I'm not so sure about that either though. If the CET were to stand at 20C after next Sunday, say, then I make it that a final week or so of average temperatures would only bring it back down to 19.1. With there being quite a large difference between the current first- and second-place holders, there must be a good chance that this July will be the second warmest in the series. Of course, if the final week is also warm, then the record could go. Should be an exciting finish this month anyway!

We are now getting advance warnings of this storm from the local weather station. They say the pressure was 940 mb at 2 pm (Chinese time) today. It is now a 'strong' typhoon.

We are in the middle of a heatwave here too. At 3 pm the local weather station recorded the following. Temperature: 36.2 C Relative humidity: 51% Pressure: 1004.7 mb Rainfall/hour: Nil Wind: SE 4.6 m/s (4.9 m/s gust) Visibility: 17.5 km It's currently 37.7 C at another station in the west of the city (further from the coast), so I think the record for the date has gone - that was apparently 37.5 C in 1994.

In answer to my own earlier question, I found this on 'realclimate.org'. 'At hemispheric or global scales, surface temperatures are believed to have followed the "Hockey Stick" pattern, characterized by a long-term cooling trend from the so-called "Medieval Warm Period" (broadly speaking, the 10th-mid 14th centuries) through the "Little Ice Age" (broadly speaking, the mid 15th-19th centuries), followed by a rapid warming during the 20th century that culminates in anomalous late 20th century warmth. The late 20th century warmth, at hemispheric or global scales, appears, from a number of recent peer-reviewed studies, to exceed the peak warmth of the "Medieval Warm Period". Claims that global average temperatures during Medieval times were warmer than present-day are based on a number of false premises that a) confuse past evidence of drought/precipitation with temperature evidence, fail to disinguish regional from global-scale temperature variations, and c) use the entire "20th century" to describe "modern" conditions , fail to differentiate between relatively cool early 20th century conditions and the anomalously warm late 20th century conditions.' Admittedly, this is dated December 2004 and does still leave open the possibility that the UK (or at least the CET zone) was warmer in Medieval times. However, for that to be the case, it looks as if the UK would have had to be significantly warmer relative to the rest of the world than it is now.

Daniel, Are you quoting some research here or is this just your impression? I'd be very interested to know what the latest research on the question of whether recent years or the Medieval warm period was warmer. From what I can see there is a lot of uncertainty about this and so I doubt that it could have been as much warmer back then as you say.

Because to overcome the variability that there always is from year, for every year to have - let's say - a 99% chance of being warmer than the preceding one then the rate of warming would have to be far in excess of what it is now. Someone with a better grasp of statistics than me might be able to work out what that rate is!

Maybe we should have a 'guess the global average temperature' competition each month. It might be good for broadening people's perspective a bit. So far, this year has been the 11th warmest since 1880.

Can't find anything on the windspeed. All I can find is that the central pressure was 960 mb at landfall and that at one point on the 15th the maximum windspeed was 45 m/s - but that was when the storm was still well out at sea.

Landfall was at 2.15 am (local time) near Shantou, Guangdong. It's interesting that this typhoon is more than a month ahead of the mean date (20th June) for the first storm of the year in China. Also, it has apparently followed a very unusual track. Heavy bursts of rain now here too as the storm moves towards us but the wind is still only a moderate breeze.