SuttonStorm
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Posts posted by SuttonStorm
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yes got the snow chains..will be swapping driving with father and brother so will be fine....looking at the webcams now and already meribel's roads looking thick...
100cm? i don't think i've ever experienced that...very very excited now..have an excellent time..cheers
It seems incredible that I was worried about the lack of snow just over a week ago. Have just checked the webcams again (becoming a bit of a junkie!) and it is still throwing it down. NW extra radar shows a huge amount to come too! - will be amazing to experience when (if!) we make it there.
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Also heading that way this weekend, to La Tania. Driving down, via Portsmouth Saturday morning, so expecting some delays. But all worth it if loads of snow..
Looks like excellent timing..
Dan - I don't think the timing could be better tbh - looks like it will snow all day thurs, very heavy on friday, and all day saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see over 100cm FRESH snow on top of what is there now by Sunday, and then it turns super-cold. Cant wait :-))))
Dont envy you with the drive down though.....hope you got your snowchains?
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61mm of water predicted for my ski area (Jungfrau) and even at village level all snow so depths should be interesting by next Tuesday if the latest forecast is correct.
As a minimum that could be 100-130cm of the stuff!
Just in time for Christmas, if only I had a spare grand?
never mind it hopefully will make a good base for 16 Jan when I get out there and also, if its correct, ensure the Lauberhorn races take place.
Much relief with a number of Wengeners I know involved with the planning of that including the chief man.
John - I am heading for the French Alps on Sunday (Courchevel) - I know people there and the snow is fantastic there now. The word locally is that they are expecting BIG snow over the next four days (maybe a bit wet lower down until thurs) - I hope all the roads will be open!!!!!
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and given the tendency of the GFS to over-egg the depth of the LPs would indicate a more southerly track in reality?
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I seem to remember from discussions last year, that the intensity of a storm has a bearing on its path. If I have got it right, a deeper storm will take a more northerly track whereas a slacker LP will track further south - not sure if anyone can confirm?
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I must admit, I am feeling much happier today :-) Another big dump expected from tuesday evening (too lower levels than today too) lasting for most of wednesday - will make a good base to work on.
Heading out on the 18th so lots more please
Good cam for the three valleys:
http://livecam.courchevel.com/index.php?webcam=4&langue=3
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French and Swiss Alps getting a pounding from this run, and (I think) the Canadian & US troughs look like they will link hands and do a merry dance :-)
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Here comes the Canadian low, we'll know within a few minutes whether we'll see a northerly for the UK.
Oh the tension......
Earlier the GFS doesn't develop that shortwave which is good news for those that don't like gales, also less of a warm sector, some snow on its northern flank especially for higher ground.
Nick
which frame does it appear...make sure I am looking at the right one?
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NIck - I imagine you are slightly happier regarding your skiing prospects now - looking quite wintry next weekend in your neck of the woods!
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Where are you viewing the 12z UKMO? It's still the 00z on Wetter and here on Netweather it hasn't updated for days?
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Thanks Julian - an interesting read. The divergence of the 850 temps was interesting and at the same time hard to understand (for me anyway) - why is there so much variation or are you indicating the possible range?
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Just when everybody seems to be in the depths of depression AFTER JUST ONE RUN the ECM come to our rescue
edit - sorry, tried to post the image from 193 ECM but failed miserably
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Hi Julian - firstly I would like to thank you for the input you have had on this site.
I personally think the freezing level is a more useful indicator than the 850Hpa temp, as that gives me a good reference to start from.
I would certainly appreciate the increased detail from region to region showing the progression of weather (pretty much as you have given above).
Also, a general summary of the models and what they are showing over a longer period (and your thoughts on how much credence they can be given with their output) would be very useful (a bit like Gibby does but more longer range?) I am trying to learn and look at the broader pattern and how things are progressing at the moment with the season approaching and would love some guidance on the synoptic patterns to look for etc.
Hope this isn't too much!
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That's better :-) The pub run has sent me to bed with dreams of snow covered Alpine peaks :-)
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Well it's like pulling teeth at the moment to get that trough sufficiently east to deliver snow to the ski resorts. I was just about to become even more grumpy than I have been recently until the last frame of the ECM 240hrs output!
Also interesting things can happen even with mediocre teleconnections!
http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0
I'm willing to wait and see how the models forecast the downstream pattern once that ridge sets in over in the western USA.
I see GP's arrived in the thread to probably deliver yet more bad news! I only put up the JMA as a means to lighten the mood! I love your posts GP and you're a bit of a star in here but just for tonight please don't tell us that Santa Claus doesn't exist! let us stay in deluded contentment for a while longer!
Being serious now if you have bad news to deliver could you wait till after 8pm UK time as I'll be off to watch Masterchef then!
Yes please JMA.....not too much to ask?
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Nick - not sure why but I am feeling a little more optimistic tonight (as said in the Alpine thread) with the models showing a downward trend in both pressure and temp for Bern (that is the closest venue to the Alps I can find unless you know better?). The only caveat being this trend has been pushed back 2 -3 days with the eurohigh deflecting any possible incursion north/north west.
Small steps................
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I feel it is now time for some blind optimism in the hope that if sufficient people think positively, the pesky eurotrash high will bugger off westwards towards the Azores where it belongs, and allows it's good cousins from the family Low Pressure to visit the Alps for a while, accompanied by their best friend E/NE wind.
All joking aside, I do feel a little more confident tonight (albeit from a very low starting point) that the turn of the month will see an improving picture over the mountains - the ensembles this evening (GFS) show the majority with a significant pressure fall (Bern) come 1st Dec with associated fall in 850s and 2m temps.
Julian - please give us some more straws to clutch!
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http://actualite.lac...alise-14514.php
I believe this is the French equivalent to the MetOffice and not just some commercial weather site. It seems to forecast the exact opposite of what GP and others seem to be hinting. December "increasingly colder and disturbed"...
Décembre : progressivement plus froid et perturbé
Temps plus agité avec le retour des perturbations océaniques, en alternance avec des journées froides, pouvant entraîner des chutes de neige épisodiques en plaine. A l'heure actuelle, l'anomalie de température envisagée semble tout de même moins marquée que l'année dernière à la même époque. Une période particulièrement froide est envisagée pour Noël. La neige devrait être au rendez-vous dans les stations pour les sports d'hiver des vacances de Noël.
Now that is something quite detailed and specific - will keep a close eye on that (I especially like the line about Noel as I will be there then! :-) )
Thanks for the link
SS
Edit - I will PM Nick Sussex to see how much credence they can be given
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I wonder what the UKMO further outlook will suggest, the longer range 30 day ECM ensembles are normally out on Friday.
In terms of the ECM ensembles upto 168hrs the freebie info today is every member, quite a few flatten the limpet ridge by 168hrs.
http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/
Upstream NOAA go with yesterday evenings ECM ensemble mean as its a middle ground solution to the more amplified ECM 00hrs operational run and the flatter GFS 00hrs output.
USED THE 12Z/17 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS BETWEEN THE
AMPLIFIED 00Z/18 OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE FLATTER 00Z/18 GFS/GEFS
MEAN WITH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING EAST CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z/18 UKMET IS
CLOSE TO THE ECENS MEAN...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL AN OUTLIER WITH ITS
HANDLING OF THE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. THE MODELS
ARE CLOSER ON THE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA...WITH THE ECENS MEAN AFFORDING A REASONABLE MIDDLE
GROUND.
Of course the more interesting output from the ECM is past 168hrs but perhaps a reflection that the ECM might be a little too amplified overall this morning, and the GFS a little too flat, a middle ground solution projected forward would probably result in a more westerly based flow.
The De Bilt ensembles have a mix of solutions on offer in the extended range, can we order the control run! That would be nice, oh well you can but dream!
Hi Nick
At this time of year my interest in the models tends to focus more on the Alps, and with the state of the slopes looking more August-like than November I am starting to get a bit nervous!
Thankfully there are hints that the limpet euro-high is starting to decay and things 'may' turn a little more seasonable next week. At least with a more atlantic based flow there is a better chance of fronts/troughs getting across to the mountains.
In terms of normal weather over there, what is the most productive (in terms of snow) weather type/direction? A LP moving up from the south introducing easterly winds, or Atlantic-influenced?
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Obviously this question isn't just for Nick S - anyone else please jump in :-)
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Hi - the link you posted for the 1st forecast doesn't seem to be working?
Am getting a bit anxious (stupidly I know!) about the lack of snow in the Alps. Off to Courchevel on 18th December so masses of time, but the Euro high seems really stubborn. Thankfully there are a few hints that it will get a little more unsettled next week so fingers crossed.
BTW I know people who are out skiing on the Kaprun (Austria) glacier right now and the conditions are wonderful! 8=)
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Morning all
Much more organised band of snow approaching from the ENE - see the attached:
http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
Should gie some interest to Suffolk, Essex, Kent and poss East Sussex as it goes through.
SS
LOL Paul - you type faster than me!
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Quite a chunky shower heading into W/NW London atm.....seems to be gaining intensity as it progresses eastwards
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Just spent the last hour and a half in the garden in the hot tub watching the light fluffy clouds float by. Not a flake in sight so now the wind has turned N i am missing even more of them. If the wind had stayed NE i would be on target for some but now am not lol never mind it was nice sitting in a puddle of hot water sipping a cold drink with snow from the bar floating in it.
hour and a half????????? eeeewwwwww.....really wrinkly now I bet!
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by SuttonStorm
Some incredible updates from NW States here : http://www.hpc.ncep....ns/nfdscc4.html
I have absolutely no idea what seeing that amount of snowfall would be like - amazing (note those depths are in INCHES!)
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