Weather Boy
-
Posts
508 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Weather Boy
-
-
16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Ironic I know , but Navgem looks ok towards the end
(Small) point of order.
You omitted to call it "the mighty" NAVGEM.
Do better.
-
1
-
2
-
-
Is the 13 June hoodoo going to be broken today?
(Only summer date where the UK has never seen 30°C recorded).
Looking close, but on balance, no?
-
I know that it's the model thread, but I don't really see the merit in discussing the likely surface conditions relating to a chart that has close to 0% chance of verifying, given the range of the chart. No offence intended to all those doing so!
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, jamesthemonkeh said:
This set-up feels very garden path ish and has done all the way along.
But...
Some posters in here have previously argued that GFS handles the resolution to our NW better, and also the Met Office suggested yesterday on that excellent long-range video that the positioning of the trigger low over southern Europe will be caused/influenced by how the developing low over NE USA interacts with the jetstream (ie where I read on here the GFS resolves better) - so the idea of some form of easterly has at least a little credibility, in my eyes.
Still feels unlikely though. We'll see.
Agreed, if it didn't the MetO would dismiss it. They haven't (as of yesterday, anyway). However, in the video that you refer to, they gave the GFS prospects as 15%. This seems about right as of yesterday. Maybe less now that it has moved somewhat towards the other models (IMO anyway).
-
2
-
-
5 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Wow...GEM and ECM at same time frame! Could it possibly be any further apart! I'm also noticing how the ECM mean was flagging up the better conditions,with the ops not backing it up for quite some time! Now we have the ops hinting at the improvements,and the mean not really backing it up...we really do need these to be on the same page! So I can't say with any confidence what the outcome will be further along the line. Perhaps best to choose the bit in the middle...some decent conditions,interspersed with less settled conditions at times. Perhaps more largely settled towards the final week or so...
If you wanted a certain type of weather (eg warm and sunny) to come about would you rather have GEM on your side and ECM against or vice versa, in order for it to come true?
I think most model watchers, speaking generally, would prefer the latter.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Ice Day said:
And I can absolutely back Paul up with this. I was living in Southend at the time and we had close to 2 level feet of snow. The easterly was blowing for 5-6 days solid and the drifting was just insane, particularly around hedgerows at the edge of fields. The number 1 event for me by a country mile
My grandma lived in Leigh on sea and her porch collapsed (corrugated plastic roof) under the weight of snow in January 1987.
-
3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:
According to CFSV2...The cold coming this weekend is just an Aperitif!
Ha ha, -16°C over SE & EA! Bank!
Very amusing!
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:
Is it going to snow then ?
That's what the models are currently saying. It doesn't mean it will. Still time for a backtrack.
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, StingJet said:
The ECM is unfortunately always correct. Especially when you cross reference its outputs with the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks, which tend to be aligned with the ECM out to 240.
I spent many years running the UK Stormtrack Topic on the GPS Speedsurfing Website , with the primary objective of calling off Speedsailing events here in the UK, the ECM / MetO have always been the form horse and tend to verify more often than other models such as the GFS .. .as you would well know mateI'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes.
-
8
-
-
30 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Not for the southern half...
Obviously that chart won't verify precisely, and furthermore it's a snapshot, but if it did, I'd say you'd have a cold continental flow for all NE of a line from the Solent to South Wales.
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:
Looks like a mean easterly later on the GEFS, would correlate with the signal on the 12z op and para. We had this signal a few days back so let’s see if it sticks on the next few runs...
Do you mean 'mean' as in average, or 'mean' as in evil? Or...both?
-
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
Quite a lot of rain coming next week for Scotland and parts of the north as low pressures zip through. I'm extremely sceptical of the very low rainfall in the south given the proximity of low pressures passing through the country, but I'm sure a multi-million pound weather computer knows better than me
Good chart, but sorry MWB, are those accumulated totals between now and 14/7?
Not that low away from South coast, really...
-
32 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Weren’t the models predicting some 100mm totals for today and yesterday at some point? That hasn’t happened. Be wary of precipitation charts at that kind of range as minute changes in the formation and track of the LP will have huge impacts on the projected totals.
Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago.
Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site.
The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required.
-
5
-
-
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
I think I'd rather watch Dulux matt emulsion dry rather than following the ECM this winter...it really has become that tedious. Last night the 24z was practically the same as the 240z.
Sadly, you mean accurate!
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:
Any chance ECM can throw out something really cold at the end of its run.I can’t remember a winter with a lack of any eye candy in FL,,nothing but mild operationals for months.
And it’s utterly dire again.Nearly time to throw the towel in
Struck me that snorefest winters have been had before but rarely with such little cold chasing from models that have offered very little hope at all, so far. Even LRFs have proved good.
Is this a sign of model improvement, I wonder?
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:
Getting beyond a joke now
That's what they get from a UK or NW Europe High - movement of cold air south from Russia or Eastern Scandinavia. Part and parcel.
-
1
-
-
Interesting run.
Generally, my initial reaction would be to laugh and say this will be tomorrow's digital fish wrapper in 12 hours' time.
Yet...at under T192 maybe not to be dismissed out of hand. And there have been hints to support it.
Let's see whether any other runs support it. If not, then my initial reaction would seem right.
-
2
-
-
57 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
As per yesterday. Copious Arctic blocking , unfortunately at our latitude all the peaks and troughs are in the wrong place.
If the Arctic blocking continues then surely the dice will fall.
*Voiceover*: "As in previous winters, the dice did not fall...."
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:
Yep I’m currently at Gatwick airport and the cloud is starting to roll in . Will we get there ??
Hello fellow Roystonian. I currently have 36.8C. @Kirkcaldy Weather nominated us as the hotspot. I hate to disappoint that there is now no recognised station here, but I will do my best as a substitute. That might turn out to be our max. Generally, I would expect Cambridge to be slightly warmer than us as it is lower.
-
2
-
-
37.4°C Heathrow, Thursday
-
32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Some probabilistic fun from the ARPEGE ensemble 6z. Here are the 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% percentiles and maximum peak temperatures Thursday...
The max is insane (edit - apologies that I originally posted a chart 3 hrs later for the max one, now corrected) and what also strikes me is the location of the hot spots, not just the SE corner, and with 20+ uppers affecting a large swathe of the south and east, we might find some new hot spots!
Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks.
-
5
-
-
5 hours ago, knocker said:
Current satellite
Are those images publicly available, please?
-
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes - cut off point was last night.
Since noticed. Never too late for bragging though. Except that someone else picked that figure also.
-
1
-
-
Am I too late?
36.6°C Heathrow. Saturday.
Model banter and emotions
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Summer8906 Good to read a bit of balance. Since when did the GFS determine the synoptic pattern? It's a chocolate teapot beyond c. T192!