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Everything posted by Weather Boy
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Summer8906 Good to read a bit of balance. Since when did the GFS determine the synoptic pattern? It's a chocolate teapot beyond c. T192!
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
(Small) point of order. You omitted to call it "the mighty" NAVGEM. Do better. -
Is the 13 June hoodoo going to be broken today? (Only summer date where the UK has never seen 30°C recorded). Looking close, but on balance, no?
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Weather Boy replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know that it's the model thread, but I don't really see the merit in discussing the likely surface conditions relating to a chart that has close to 0% chance of verifying, given the range of the chart. No offence intended to all those doing so! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Weather Boy replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed, if it didn't the MetO would dismiss it. They haven't (as of yesterday, anyway). However, in the video that you refer to, they gave the GFS prospects as 15%. This seems about right as of yesterday. Maybe less now that it has moved somewhat towards the other models (IMO anyway). -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's what the models are currently saying. It doesn't mean it will. Still time for a backtrack. -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes. -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Weather Boy replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Obviously that chart won't verify precisely, and furthermore it's a snapshot, but if it did, I'd say you'd have a cold continental flow for all NE of a line from the Solent to South Wales. -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Weather Boy replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Do you mean 'mean' as in average, or 'mean' as in evil? Or...both? -
Model output discussion - into July 2020
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good chart, but sorry MWB, are those accumulated totals between now and 14/7? Not that low away from South coast, really... -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
Weather Boy replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago. Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site. The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required. -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Weather Boy replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sadly, you mean accurate! -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Weather Boy replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Struck me that snorefest winters have been had before but rarely with such little cold chasing from models that have offered very little hope at all, so far. Even LRFs have proved good. Is this a sign of model improvement, I wonder? -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Weather Boy replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's what they get from a UK or NW Europe High - movement of cold air south from Russia or Eastern Scandinavia. Part and parcel. -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting run. Generally, my initial reaction would be to laugh and say this will be tomorrow's digital fish wrapper in 12 hours' time. Yet...at under T192 maybe not to be dismissed out of hand. And there have been hints to support it. Let's see whether any other runs support it. If not, then my initial reaction would seem right. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Weather Boy replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
*Voiceover*: "As in previous winters, the dice did not fall...." -
Hello fellow Roystonian. I currently have 36.8C. @Kirkcaldy Weather nominated us as the hotspot. I hate to disappoint that there is now no recognised station here, but I will do my best as a substitute. That might turn out to be our max. Generally, I would expect Cambridge to be slightly warmer than us as it is lower.
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Hot week - guess the temperature competition
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
37.4°C Heathrow, Thursday -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks. -
How hot will it be? Temperature Competition
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Since noticed. Never too late for bragging though. Except that someone else picked that figure also. -
How hot will it be? Temperature Competition
Weather Boy replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Am I too late? 36.6°C Heathrow. Saturday.