Weather Boy

No confusion there for newbies then!

Frosty, mate, has someone hacked your account? Where's the positivity we normally get?? A week or so ago, GFS was churning out some occasionally amazing output and was solid for cold just outside the reliable. Was it right? Erm, no. We can only really get an idea of the likely weather 7-10 days ahead. Beyond that, who knows. Furthermore, if the GFS was wrong, as it clearly was, at that range, what's to stop it being wrong now? Winter's over......well except all the winter after 7-10 December that is!!!! (Although you're right that there'll be no snow "soon"). Let's see eh? Sorry if this post is a statement of the obvious, but basically, the models may well be wrong and really give us a notion for the coming week or so. Old Frosty back please!!

That's absolutely great! Shame that it will (probably) be showing blowtorch southwesterlies on the next run - as it tends to.

Is it a fair comment to say that the GFS upgrade wasn't a roaring success? Are there any 'before' or 'after' verification stats to judge the success of past upgrades? Presumably whoever paid for it would be interested in that(!) but they might not be publically available.

Whilst I agree, it seems to me that the difference between that chart and the GFS is that that chart has "potential" (dreaded word) whereas the GFS has a Snowfest. So very, very different (at that point, at least). The difference is the ensembles seems even more pronounced.

How do you know that, please? In my experience, during winter, it is usually the ECM throwing up the model porn for coldies whilst the GFS is the zonal party pooper. No prizes for which one tends to be right - well, to be fair, they tend to meet in the middle, but often nearer the milder solution. It's interesting to see here the roles are reversed. Not sure why I should switch to believing the ECM just because it shows the mild solution. Plus, we have GP's very encouraging noises (although he is the first to admit that he's been wrong before!). It's great to see charts like this within semi-reliable time frame even if the chance of snowmageadon in London is very remote at that range.

That last chart is amazing. 27C in Sussex and 20C for my location (north of London). Has that ever happened before?

Ok, thanks all of you. Interesting and surprising.

I meant that generally, June was poor, was it not, and then went on to give my location as an example! Some exceptions, I believe towards the NW, but I understood that June overall was a very disappointing month, and therefore I don't think it's correct that all three summer months are going to be above average.

Surely June was not? Rather cool for me (not to mention dull and wet).

Gavin As you probably know, although we can get unsettled weather from ex-hurricanes is as is (more?) often the case, they take a different track or stall, they can help fine weather be maintained in the UK, sometimes by pumping up heat from the south, But you're right to say that they do promote uncertainty.

I strongly suspect that they say 'vast majority' because the employees aren't obliged to transfer, and some may choose not to - but they won't know for ages because the transfer isn't happening until the Spring.

I don't buy that Jo! Every region has their own forecasts. Why should the north or the UK have less detail on the national forecast than the south. (speaking as a southerner:-)

Shouldn't even be that, really. Certainly the front-of-camera points will be covered by TUPE, which another poster mentioned. All other operations connected to the TV and radio should also be TUPE. Is there anything left? Problem with TUPE is that the employee is entitled to the same terms as the terms under the previous employer with the MASSIVE exception of pensions. They do not have to be matched. Therefore a cushy Meto final salary (I'm guessing - at least for a long server) pension will be forfeit (in terms of future pension arrangements, past are protected) and, here's the sting - no compensation for that! The way TUPE works is that the employee doesn't have to accept it, but if they don't, it's deemed that you have handed in your notice. So, that's alright then! Perhaps all that is what you were alluding to regarding "new post uncertainty", Jo?

I agree. How is it at all beneficial to see the curvature of the Earth? It may be scientifically correct, but how does it benefit the viewer. Indeed, I wouldn't even concede that it's scientifically correct because who decides that it should be viewed from the south? Imagine if it was viewed from the Shetlands, with viewers in the south having to judge small distances to denote large areas.

For you, maybe, if you take those charts at face value. However, it's worth noting that (again taking those charts at face value) the country, aside from Wales and the SW, avoid the rain as the front stalls in, er, Wales and the SW. Perhaps not the washout weekend for most that many are predicting? Indeed, presumably there would be quite a draw of warm air ahead of the front leading to rather high temperatures in any sunshine, particularly on Saturday when cloud from the system seems less likely to have an effect on the benefitting areas of the country. Better in the east for the same reason, perhaps? I looked at the BBC charts and thought we were in for a bit of a horror show weekend but, from a IMBY perspective, I'm not so sure looking at Knocker's charts. I'd be very hesitant to look beyond the weekend at the moment. Models are often mistaken (sometimes over-progressive) in slow moving or stalled systems and I'd suggest that pretty much anything could happen - always fun looking at the scenarios though. 35C for EA maybe??

Cheers for that. I read on here that the record was London. But looks clear that the record was nowhere near being broken. Thanks,

Does anybody know what the overnight London min was this morning and whether the record was broken? I'm guessing not. I'm also assuming that London will see the highest minima. My min was 20.1C. I think that's the first time I've recorded a double digit min starting with a '2' and therefore it's a record for me.

So you keep saying. But why? Please educate us as to what is a Spanish plume and why this isn't one. Mere assertions do not convince anyone.

Agreed, but at least for the south, only a tweak is needed. Maybe I'm being a NIMBY here, but in my location, we've just had the driest start to July since at least 2005 and the driest start to any month since June 2013. Temps no great shakes, in fact slightly below average, but I'm not complaining. So a tweak to lift the temps courtesy of some continental rather than Atlantic sourced air would make it very good. Wrt the models, I find yesterday's flip extraordinary, let alone this morning's. This is a relatively stable time of year and you just don't expect to see that in the models. You would therefore assume that they are now accurately telling us what this weekend's weather is going to be like at this close range and at this time of year, but if they can flip with 4 days to go, is there any reason to think that they can't do so with just 3 or 3 1/2 days to go? On the whole, I think not, though. I don't know what signal the models were (over?)reacting to yesterday, but it seems that it's yesterday's models that are isolated, not the set of model runs that we now have. So, on the whole, I think it's looking good for the weekend, although I won't be putting any money on it. Sorry if this post is a bit chart and analysis free, but that's just my take on the general situation.

No, you are looking at charts from a different time slot from Frosty, as is plain. He is referring to a later time frame. Given that you must know this, I really question the motivation of those posters that seek to mislead people as to what the models are showing. Why do you do it?

Don't complain, that's a perfect drying day!

Yes. I must admit that for my location complaints about the summer weather aren't backed up by the stats for this month (although June was poor). Sure, no heatwave with temps average at best. However, at my location, this is the driest start to July since 2010 and the driest start to any month since June 2013. Decent sunshine levels too. I'll take that, at least for the time being!

This post is a very substantial over-simplification to the point of being misleading. You have cherry picked the worst charts currently out there. It depends where you are, when you are talking about and which model you are looking at. The GFS is the worst of the biggies. No need to post the worst, as you've done that. Poor charts this weekend, especially for the north, followed by a cool flow thereafter which is borderline FI (although that is not Atlantic driven being more of a northerly outbreak). Such as (although this is likely to change): UKMO looks better for the south, poor in the north for the weekend: ECM confines the poor weather over the weekend to the north-west, generally: Not a bad chart for most of E+W. Furthermore, for a lot of the country for much of this week, the weather looks generally fine. It is the weekend and thereafter, FI that the position currently looks poor in some models, but as everyone knows that is likely to change run by run. To sum up the model output as "very disturbed" is not correct. I see little evidence of storms as the air is largely Atlantic rather than continental sourced, although I wouldn't rule out a bit of convection on some days. The jet stream tends to be over the northern UK until deep into FI when it fragments very much. So, in summary it depends when or where you are. This weekend in the north looks bad. Further south, away from the weekend, variable to good. I think that newer people would appreciate a little bit more balance, especially where the outlook is quite a bit more positive than it has been for some time (not that that's saying all that much)! Hope this helps.

Not a criticism at all of you, Frosty. Just pointing out (perhaps the obvious) that the mean of the same model was totally wrong before. It's a model discussion, so nothing wrong with what either of us wrote! Cheers, WB