Weather Boy

Point 1: as those stats are date of determination they pre-date events discussed. Point 2: are you denying that there was heat predicted for this week? Apparently not, so I think my point stands. Doesn't mean the models aren't right now of course!

Yes, quite. Models today and recently are presenting poor weather and, generally speaking, it looks a bit of a horror show for the next 7-10 days, maybe longer. However, one comfort is that the models have been performing pretty poorly over the last week or two. This week was, less than a week before the event, supposed to be a heatwave - at least 27C with some models saying comfortably over 30C in some spots. Then the mid-week 'blip' was introduced (with heat to resume thereafter) and then this blip was expanded to basically be the foreseeable, with no resumption in heat, which barely even appeared anyway. Even short range forecasts are poor. Yesterday was supposed to be 30+C in EA. I don't think anywhere saw over 27C and most places were in 22-24C range. Finally they told us (or some did), it's OK, the Azores High will ridge in and at least the south will get a settled weekend and further improvement next week. Now that has been dropped like a stone. So, the question is, why should we believe the models now that they are churning out garbage charts any more than we did when they were saying heatwave? Put more scientifically, what was causing the models to go wrong last week, and is the problem still there this week, causing poor performance for our small part of the globe? Seems to me that they have been unusually poor and although I can't see it being a great weekend for anywhere at this range, I wouldn't be making any confident predictions beyond that.

Yes, also not just one model. Sorry, my post was quite lazy. I meant that they aren't overly influenced by short term (presumably??) changes in modelling and are evidently not purely reliant on the public models.

I think that I would be surprised if they adjusted their forecast based on one particular run. They normally aren't as influenced as that. They tend to take a line and stick to it, presumably based largely on stuff that we don't get to see.

Slightly sceptical as the UK record for June is 35.6C, but I suppose records are there to be broken!

Going from that chart, SS, I wouldn't say "very dry". Away from coast of EA, we are talking about 12-30 mm on the eastern side of England, which is maybe a touch below average.

I think that it strongly depends on your location. Slightly surprised at the comment from Manchester that June was poor, as UK wide, the month was warm and dry and the NW fared best. Unusually, it was fine in Scotland, the north and west, whereas my location for example had about double average rainfall, in common with much of the south. That was the last wetter than average month that we have had and I note just 2.1 mm over the last four weeks! Back to the topic, I think that it was Paul Hudson (maybe not, but definitely a professional) who observed that fine warm April often seems to precede a poor summer, the classic example being 2007. However, this year, aside from the couple of warm days two weeks ago, temps have been no great shakes, despite it being dry and settled. In any case, I am not sure how scientific that approach is, even if you do put April into that category. In summary, like the rest of us, I don't know!

Yes, it looks to me like those not close to the coast are likely to see precipitation remaining low. Having in my location having had a pathetic 2.1 mm in the last 28 days, that doesn't look like changing too radically. I am mystified as to why the west is show with all the snowfall, or at least precipitation. Maybe I am being too simplistic, but the LP is of course to the east not the west, so why the lowing snow in Worcs and Gloucs, for example? I would expect north Norfolk to be the more obvious candidate.

I'm very far from an expert, but I think that you are reading to much into a mean chart. Because mean charts, by their nature, are an ensemble, you can't really deduce such small detail as wind direction from them. That chart shows NE Europe high, Atlantic high and Portuguese trough. All you can do is to infer that that is generally a favourable set up for UK cold. You can't go to such detail as to deduce a SE wind, as it's not intended for such detail. I think....

Dave, The implication of your post is that the ens are wrong and the op is right. Of course, we don't know that in this instance, but are you just saying that it is your experience that the ops drag the ens round? Each to his own, I suppose, as I recall GP used to say 'stick to your ensemble means'! Good to see you back, btw WB.

Hi Nick I'd be really interested in your opinion on this. Taking my location as an example, the GFS is showing a max of 6C tomorrow and the Met is saying much the same. This seems to me to be a huge uptick compared to, er, -1C or so today. I know that we can get rapid uplifts of temperature, but I'd expect that kind of lift to be associated with an Atlantic front introducing much milder air. That is not happening (as yet). The change tomorrow is a subtle shift in wind direction to emanating from more central France rather than central Europe. My conclusion: it will be milder tomorrow but not as much as the models are saying. Do you agree, or is there something I am missing as to the reason why there will be such a significant change in surface temp between today and tomorrow? Thanks in advance, WB

Yes, agree, but only notable for minima on average (in my location). Even then, no particularly low minima, just consistently low. Wrt the month of January, current aggregate of minima over the 25 days of this month so far for my weather station is +0.8, meaning that the average minimum so far is +0.032. I believe that if that were to stay that way, it would be the lowest I've recorded for January in my current location. Although I think it's likely to rise slightly before the end of the month, I think it's unlikely to reach +1C as that would need average minima of +5 between now and the end of the month, which is unlikely.

Well, to those saying that watching the models is like groundhog day, that is not all that different from today's chart is it? http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Obviously a frozen surface is ideal, but I am not sure that it makes any difference if a surface is wet (based on experience). The rain that has fallen is presumably close to being freezing cold, same as the ground on a dry but not freezing surface, so why would it inhibit settling of the snow? Maybe someone with better grasp of physics than me can put me straight.

It may not have been your intention, but this implies that the ECM modelled a snowy easterly, which it never did. It modelled an easterly that would be very cold with snow a possibility down the line, but pressure was always quite high and although there was cause for debate about possible convective activity, it never showed a "snowy easterly". For me, at least, this has never been on the cards in the foreseeable. I agree with posters that say that it looks highly likely that ECM has won the day. Obviously we don't know for sure until the weather happens, but it has dragged the GFS towards it kicking and screaming. It would be churlish to complain that it has toned down its most extreme scenario, as modelled last night. Models almost always do that.

Yes, but if you are referring to the GFS 12z, the middle ground would also give an Easterly next week, just one that is not as vigorous, pressure higher and not affecting the far north, as outlined in my post here: Either way, for the time being there is little or no mild weather forecast, except for the north if the GFS is right and the ECM 100% wrong.

If we might sober ourselves up with the GFS: We can see that even that 12z op tries to give at least the south an easterly. It wouldn't take a huge adjustment for that to deliver the goods. I accept that it would be very far from Snowmaggedon as per ECM (which as we all know WILL NOT verify exactly by the way) but it is a cold chart for the south. No hairdryer SWerlies. Can I please point out that the only way is down from ECM, so no wrist slitting please when that happens! It equally doesn't mean the cold spell is off.

Hi Nick Interesting post, particularly the part I have emphasised. Although we don't know for sure yet that you're right, it certainly does look that way. If it is, the big question is why? It seems to me that we have the following possibilities. 1. The models have inbuilt bias towards lowering pressure on the continent and therefore are not doing their job effectively; 2. There is a signal that the models are latching on to which is then removed or watered down meaning that other factors overide it; or 3. A bit of both. Now, if it is pure no.1, then you would expect this to happen a lot. Certainly it has happened before, but I would suggest that it is not happened enough for us to be able to say that it is this factor alone. No. 1 alone therefore seems unlikely to me. If I'm right, we're therefore left with nos 2 or 3. In that case, what signals are we talking about and why are they being watered down. Perhaps most importantly, are there signals there which might indicate that the heights WILL lower at some point, perhaps later in time than the models are currently predicting? From my limited knowledge, I'm at a bit of a loss as to what these signals might be. There's no SSW or other significant strat warming to latch onto. Any thoughts?

Well, I certainly didn't invent the expression but I think it means that snow lovers ought not to worry about dry v cold conditions as that will change. Obviously dry conditions way into FI unlikely to verify (although admittedly it could turn mild beforehand)

You may have forgotten the old adage which in my experience often works : get the cold in first and the snow will come! Happy New Year all

Very much agreed. And I also add that I agree with another poster who said that the UKMO performance has been poor lately. I do however concur with Steve's point that the UKMO has been a successful party pooper previously (notably the easterly that never was in December 2012) previously and so anybody with any sense will want to see it give ground for us to be sure it is wrong. After all, it has to do so eventually unless it is right.

Well, exactly. You may well be right that the colder ensembles referred to above "won't verify". However, what they do tell you is that uncertainty (i.e. FI) is at pretty close range with +192, or even close, up in the air right now.

That was completely absent yesterday. I wonder if it will be gone tomorrow?

I know that's an anomaly, and so shouldn't be read like a pressure map, but comparing with the anomalies yesterday and previously, that's a lot further east, with the highest around Finland. Previous efforts had HP mostly around North Sea or SW Scandinavia.

IDO, I don't think that there is an inconsistency between what you are saying and what others are talking about. Your original post clearly discussed the next seven days. Possibility of some less mild weather edging in at times (given the extreme mildness, it would be surprising if that didn't happen) but basically, as you say, no sign of anything other than on the mild side of average at least. Other posters are referring to relatively strong signals for a Scandi high beyond that i.e. the following week. Given the range, clearly that cannot yet be trusted and we have been there before, but there are signals which are open for discussion. Glad to be of service in clearing that up!