Weather Boy

Roger Smith doesn't agree with you: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-40 (post 795). He says that there is little if any correlation, although slight tendency to produce slightly below average Dec and Jans. So, unless he's making it up, you're wrong. The Met Office say that the impact of El Nino is unclear. Hardly surprising seeing as it is on the other side of the world.

Not at all, but it was quite brief! I see your point that our average winter temps must be closer to average westerly temps than average easterly or northerly as they are so much more common. Still not convinced that a winter of dominant westerlies could ever give a colder than average winter, though. Hope today was better!

Would you be kind enough to expand on that please, Costa? You mean, I imagine, that as the location most susceptible to the Atlantic (if you include Ireland), if the Atlantic is colder than usual as it currently is, then it should follow that we will be colder than average. Is that right? If so, not sure I agree. If we hypothetically had a winter of constant W or SW flow from the Atlantic, the winter overall would still be milder than average, even if it not quite as mild as it would if the Atlantic were not so cold. As someone else implied, snow from Canada is surely impossible at our location(?). In other words a constant W or SW flow in Jan might normally give a CET of say 7.5C (very mild) but with a colder than average Atlantic, it might be 5.5C or 5C: still warmer than average. So, if I've interpreted your post correctly, I'm still not convinced. I'd be interested in your comments, though.

Interesting, thanks Gavin. Struggling to think of what scenario that would end up with a scenario where the UK is cold whilst most of the rest of Europe is "4W". Two possibilities: one is a near constant northerly given Scandi trough. Possible, but such set-ups don't usually last for weeks on end. Second is a southerly jet, with the UK consequently getting easterlies as LP's head for France rather than Scotland. Trouble with that is that this forecast says that there will be a lack of blocking, which surely is necessary to cause the depressions to dive south. Also, it doesn't have Scandinavia in the same category of the UK, which suggests that they are not getting the same flow, which is puzzling. Maybe there is method in the madness (I guess you have to pay to find out!) but I am certainly sceptical, although I am sceptical in relation to all forecasts at that kind of range!

And it's not even factually correct. They intend to refer to the winter of 10/11 not 9/10. As we all know, even that winter was pretty benign save for the December which was anything but.

Surprised that nobody has posted the following link a few days ago: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11864067/Britain-braced-for-long-snowy-winter-as-strongest-El-Nino-since-1950-expected.html Yes, the Telegraph, which has been going remorselessly downhill and down-market for a couple of years has obviously decided that there is no reason to leave ludicrous weather prediction stories to the Express, especially when it sells a lot of copy. The article is a million miles away from justifying the headline and I note that on the web-page, no comments are allowed! The closest it gets to justifying the prediction of a cold winter is (my emphasis): "“The latest indication suggests [El Nino] may be starting to move westwards and cooling near the South American coast,†said Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel. "This is then called a Modiki type El Nino with warm sea surface temperatures in the mid Pacific. “If that happens then the impact may shift the jet stream and give us a greater risk of a colder negative North Atlantic Oscillation this winter, which usually brings us colder winters.†So, er, El Nino MAY shift and IF it does so, it MAY shift the jet stream this USUALLY gives us colder winters. Even then, a "colder winter" does not equal long snowy winter!!! So, if on if on if and then a leap to long and snowy winter. And note that the Met Office won't even go that far, simply saying that the effect, if any, on UK weather, is "unclear". Re the Express and this kind of coverage generally: presumably one year, it will actually be correct in the way that a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day - and then they will be crowing about it, conveniently forgetting that every previous time they ran the story, it was wrong. Not quite clear whether or when the apologies for totally erroneous news stories are featured. I wish the media would grow up - but instead the Express infection is spreading.

Yes, a pretty poor outlook for pretty much the whole country in shortish term but from Wednesday a somewhat improving picture. Sunday looking to be a bit of a blip, and probably a more than a blip for the North and west. Early signs have been consistent for the improvement to continue thereafter, except for last Friday's models that wanted to keep the dartboards rolling in. Fortunately that seems no longer the case. They could change back but the background signals suggest otherwise.

Yes at that range the trend is your friend and looking at SS's charts there seems to be some agreement on a deep low glancing N Ireland and Nw Scotland and then moving north. By the time it reaches north of Iceland its influence will be all but gone save for the northern Isles. If that verifies you'd imagine that HP would fill the void from the west. This post sounds somewhat like hopecasting as Given recent poor weather and more to deal with this week but it's supported by GP, Tamara and most importantly the Met Office who continue to be bullish as to a fine August. Doommongers beware. We are due a good August. I do hope I'm right!

The tendency has been to move it north and make it transient though. Fine weather both before and after those charts. Indeed I think tHe ECM chart that you have posted would I think give a fine day for England south of roughly Yorkshire.

She's clearly a strong lady!

Who's saying that the GFS is correct? There is definitely hope that the ECM will triumph and you will have a good day. That remains to be seen. Whatever happens with the weather, though, enjoy your day!

True, but this is a difference in timing, as look as the GFS 6z for 1 August: Both models get there in the end but with GFS we have to wait until the weekend for HP whereas ECM wants to get there faster. If you are doing something outdoors on Thursday and Friday though, the difference between the two is very important!

My take on the next 5-12 days is that it looks like we are in for what for the south is probably the worst week of the summer so far with a series of lows, some of a dartboard nature. For example: I put my hands up to cherry picking there, but this chart is not untypical. Whilst I am sure some days, especially in the south will be relatively good, dry days look to be relatively few even there. There's no sign of it being topical wetness either: some days will be really cool with charts like this (although if it verified this would probably produce a dry day in most of Ireland and at least the SW quarter of the UK): However, the models have been pretty resolute in picking out a change to HP round about Saturday, starting in the south and west, but spreading throughout the country. The 12z is slightly more resolute than the 6z with HP nosing in: ECM has it faster at the moment: Many of the models do not go out that far, but those that do have appear to broadly agree over various runs that we are looking at advancement of HP from the west on or around 1 August. That is a long way ahead in forecasting terms and the usual caveats apply, but I don't see any reason to doubt the likelihood of such a set-up beyond those usual caveats. To bolster the near cross-model agreement we have:-- 1. The Meto have been rock solid in calling for settled weather for the start of August (rock solid that is, apart from John's post - I don't know what has caused that!) 2. GP's "interjection" a few pages back lends cogent support. 3. The ops enjoy ensemble support by and large. 4. Frosty is in a good mood! There is no sign of it being hot at this point, but this is no surprise as HPs often advance from the west bringing with them cool northerly flows before they assert their dominance over the UK. In any case, the presence or absence of heat depends of the orientation of the High, and we are way too early to be starting to second guess that at this stage. I therefore would consider this to be something of an epic fail if what appears to be some unseasonable, wet, windy and cool weather does not give way to something more summary the weekend after next. That's my little basic and very low level analysis for what it is worth.

Interesting comparison, Gavin. Although in terms of weather, GFS v the others could hardly be more different (save for the far NW) they are not poles apart in what they show, namely LP to our north/ NW and HP to the south. It just goes to demonstrate that relatively small synoptic tweaks can make quite a difference to the weather on the ground. These charts are only six days away. Quite a divergence for that timescale (as Gibby mentioned) even if roughly on the same page. During the recent hot weather, GFS rather ruled the roost. Let's hope that means that it will do the same again, even if it is 2 v 1. Whichever is right, though, it does look as if the pattern we have for the foreseeable is westerly flow, mixed at best in the north, periodically bright and warmer down south, but there will also suffer less frequent incidences of unsettled weather and bursts of rain.

Yes. I'm quite surprised that even experienced posters are pointing to the slack northerly modelled for 10/11 days time as being written in stone even though it is moderately deep FI. It seems clear that there is going to be HP domination and there are decent signals for at least the risk of retrogression. However, at this range, it is hopeless to expect the models to predict the orientation of the High which is crucial in determining the actual weather. As they say, more runs needed!

Just having viewed your post, the graphic must have changed as there is no easterly in what I can see. The low is not in the channel but off in the North Sea off the NE coast of England. This shows, at the risk of stating the obvious except for newbies: 1. At that kind of range, the charts do change rather quickly, 2. The outlook is still grim on that model (albeit maybe not quite so awful)for now! Some relatively experienced posters making very sweeping statements about what is to happen way way ahead - not including you in that SB!

Jonathan A bit of a misconception in your original post that the more intense the high the more difficult it is to shift. Not so. I do not know what it is that determines how easy or difficult it is to shift a block, or how one can tell that from charts. Of course, given the chart that you posted is so far away, and at 1050 over central Europe, it seems exceptionally unlikely to verify, I would say that it is a somewhat academic discussion at this point in time.

But eventually after huge numbers of runs it is sure to happen eventually. The lack of ensemble support suggests it's coincidental

What do all the colours mean (as in, is there a key?) and what is the source of this please? Since 2010, doesn't mean all that amazing. We've had some cold snaps in all but last winter, but nothing amazing. In saying the best since 2010, that doesn't mean it will be as good as 2010, just that it's better than anything since then!

According to Fergie (I think it was: if it wasn't it was one of the professionals on here) all this stuff about less balloon data and "the pub run" etc is a complete myth and there is no GFS run that is better or worse than any other.

But IDO, if you are looking at the models as a whole, one of them (at least) will have to flip because in broad terms the GFS is saying mild and the ECM (and others) are saying northerly blast. Clearly, therefore, one of them has got it wrong and will eventually have to come sulkily to the party when the relevant model realises. FI is very close at the moment, only the next 3 days or so is clear.

Hi NickI know what the NAO is, but I'm sure I'm not alone in having no clue as to what you mean by "west based" NAO and therefore even less of a clue as to how it is bad for cold! Help in that regard greatly appreciated - thanks in advance!

As always I stand to be corrected but those are anomaly charts which means that they don't necessarily equate to dartboard low or flabby shallow high or whatever: they are average pressure at the time mentioned compared to average pressure generally. Therefore I am not sure that it is correct to interpret them as you have done. That said I too am extremely confused by Ian's comment compared to Nick L as they seem completely at odds with each other. Ian refers to deep lows North of or even over the uk. This would suggest a generally westerly flow. Whilst that doesn't equate solidly to mild weather, it is very different from the scenario Nick mentioned in his post hence my confusion. I therefore do not think I agree with the "blizzards" comment (much as I would like to) as that would be highly unusual in a mainly westerly flow away from Scottish high ground, especially this early in the season. The GFS in FI both 6z and 0z before it supported Ian to a degree in giving a westerly flow in FI but no dartboard lows and in any case Ian has previously said that GFS low res is given very little credibility. The signs more generally seem to point towards a colder evolution as per Nick L but when METO say no, only a fool doesn't listen (although of course they could be wrong). I am a bit generally baffled by this apparent dichotomy and really don't know what to make of it. If Ian and/or nick could explain then I for one would be very grateful!

Where you have both GFS and ECM (and indeed other models) ops all going for a potent northerly for several consecutive runs at this range, then it is very likely to happen. The ensembles, especially the GFS do tend to have to be dragged along kicking and screaming after the op has spotted the likely solution in near FI. It's pretty clear to me that at the end of next week there is going to be a northerly. A backtrack at this point would be surprising and embarrassing, although of course we have seen them before at closer range than this. Ignoring that fairly remote possibility, the main questions for me are 1. How potent will it be? 2. To what extent will it be associated with snowfall (and how far south) and 3. How long will it last? As to 3 I have saw no runs this morning suggesting it will be more than a snap, but that is definitely FI at this point and Nick L's post above is tantalising in that respect!

Oh, thanks, I had completely misread them as I thought they were temps!