richie3846
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Posts posted by richie3846
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10 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:
Oh yeah, one of the better known statistical "near misses" too, with a new UK October record max of 29.9 °C at Gravesend on 1st October. Absolutely extraordinary few days.
Worth mentioning that Lyneham weather station recorded the hottest day of the year that day after an abysmal summer. Hottest day of the year in October? The odds on that must be miniscule.
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I tend to stick to the same veg growing timings each year, the results of course reflect the weather. For comparison, runner beans and tomatoes are a full 6 weeks behind last year. This time last year my tomatoes had finished (20th August plants ripped out) and this year there will be many unfinished fruits and flowers. Runners only started cropping last week, despite the plants being 4.5 months old.
Temperatures have been steady and actually quite reasonable in the Swindon area this summer, propped up with mild nights. Cloud cover has been absolutely awful, the worst of the worst I suspect. Rainfall pretty average, we were lucky to narrowly avoid the ridiculous wet summer the south east suffered.
In the summer, cloud cover is a really important measure of how good or bad it's been. It's been absolutely diabolical, endless days of overcast skies in each of the summer months. There is little to be said for the summer in this part of the country, it was a big disappointment. And with no late summer on the cards, it seems it's well and truly over. Also, note to myself, I'm never looking at the model discussion ever again, because it is pretty worthless as a thread. Day 10 is all anyone ever mentioned. I viewed the thread to maybe get an idea of day 3 to 7, but nobody was bothered by that because it wasn't great. Instead the entire summer people spent looking at day 10, which was as much use as reading tea leaves to find out if it's going to rain at 3pm in Norwich. You live and learn. The met office 10 day trend videos are far more use and much more honest that utter nonsense in the model thread! Rant over.
What's kept it real for me is the disgusting heatwaves globally, and the forest fires keeping people indoors for weeks and months, unable to breathe the air. We probably didn't do that badly really
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Richard, you live too close to the coast! I'm not that much further inland, but we've already had several air frosts this year. Nothing extreme I'll admit, and probably less than I'd expect, but I've had to scrape the car windscreen more than once.
I'll admit, the weather in general the last week or two has been pretty uninspiring. We've not had the high temps 'the south' have been getting, instead we've been getting low teens under grey, and very often quite misty, skies. I wouldn't say we've had it that bad rain wise though, not compared to those further West anyway.
Cheer up, the sun's out this morning. A bright, cool, breezy Autumn day (for now at least).
My local weather station (Lyneham Wilts.) has recorded 12 hours of sun so far this month - 18% of the average. Many spots in the south east haven't managed 10 hours of sun yet Yeah it has been mild but very cloudy. I see an Aberdeen station has 31 hours, 50% in the bank. It's not very often I'm jealous of the Aberdeen weather!
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1) not necessarily. As an official met station it should be pretty accurate. Many variables probably at play. I don't know the topogroahy there at all but could there be a local foehn effect? Was it a particularly sunny spot whilst elsewhere nearby was more foggy/cloudy?
2) no. Not really. Anything is possible with our climate! Quite cool the records have both fallen on the 1st though.
The beeb said it was a temperature inversion, and the cool air at ground level mixed with the warmer upper air. Coupled with the sun, this was enough to break the record. I''m not really surprised. I drove most of the M6 on Friday, and a similar thing happened there, the temperature lifted (car reading) considerably around Staffordshire and was 2-3 degrees cooler elsewhere. 16c in most places, lifting to around 19c for a 10-20 mile stretch of motorway. Not scientific but was backed up by official readings nearby.
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Another week of warmth to come http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php
And possibly a fortnight, by the looks of some of the models. This mild spell reminds me of last year's amazing spell of late warmth. This spell is also amazing, in my opinion - it's just a tad overshadowed by last year. Looking at halloween, 20c could be on the cards for some.
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Indeed, but that's now the 4th time that the same link has been posted.
And for those that missed it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34489981
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Not experienced by myself, but an amazing range at Braemar yesterday (1.10.15). -2c to 22.7C! Braemar was both the warmest and the coldest place in the UK on the same day.
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I wonder how sunshine totals this September are doing? I imagine they would have shot up over the last 3 days.
http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html
A pretty decent site for a snapshot of the month so far.
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yep, it quotes values at 5cm, which is about the height that a grass minimum thermometer would be placed. What is not clear is over what surface the temperatures are recorded. Is it grass, soil or man made(asphalt, concrete etc). The surface will make a difference.
The vast majority of stations will be over grass as this is what the standard measurement requires. There is the odd exception like London WC, I think that is on a roof.
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First hints of frosts from the met in the north west
UK Outlook for Friday 28 Aug 2015 to Sunday 6 Sep 2015:
Further spells of rain are likely to spread across all parts of the UK, interspersed with drier conditions although showers are possible at times. Scotland, western England and Northern Ireland could see occasional outbreaks of heavy rain along with strong winds, and even a chance of gales around exposed coasts. Eastern parts in contrast should be broadly drier, but patchy light rain may make it across from the west at times. By the first week of September conditions are likely to become more settled across the country, with driest weather most likely in the southeast. Temperatures throughout the period are expected to remain near normal for most, perhaps becoming cool in the northwest with the chance of some chilly nights, and an increased risk of frost.
Jeez.it's a bit early for the f word isn't it?!
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No exact figures but it is believed to make up a sizeable share of the £32.5 million a year the Met Office receives
I've just had a quick glance at the met's figures. Commercial revenue is around £200m or so - this is a massive hole in the balance sheet.
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Do any of you guys know how much this contract is worth to the Met Office? Are we talking millions? Or tens of millions?
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Quite a shock! I reckon the Met Office data is the best out there. I wonder who the beeb will use now?
There is some good news if the BBC forecast goes down the pan though - the Met publish a regular video forecast at the bottom of the homepage. It is far more entertaining than the beeb, as the 'presenters' are clearly chosen on some sort of 'pull the short straw' system, so lack the refinement of the beeb presenters. I watch this forecast daily, for the weather forecast, and for the entertaining presenters too!
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A similar thing happened last Sunday. By Thursday's forecast for Sunday, it was looking like a total write off for the south, with rain all day. What actually happened was an hour of moderate rain during the night followed by a glorious summer's day!
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I know a lot has already been said on this subject but this is why I am sure the reading was valid:
I live in Swindon, not too far from Heathrow really (I guess around 80 miles). By 9am temperatures were rocketing into the high 20s already. I already knew by then that perfect conditions could smash the Swindon (Lyneham) record of around 35c. All time record not July record. We ended up on about 32c. What stuffed it up for us, was that there was a great big bank of cloud around 1030-1230, followed by other smatterings of cloud throughout the afternoon. Despite the cloud, we still has the warmest temps since '06. We only had around 10 hours of sun I reckon, so a full 15 hours or so would have smashed that record.
In addition, you could argue that town temperatures are what people actually feel. The Lyneham station is rural, exposed, on a hill. Swindon itself in a valley,10 miles further east, urban, and based on my own observations, though not scientifically perfect of course, can be 1-2c hotter on a summers day. I reckon it was 33.5c to 34c in Swindon itself that day. If there was a weather station actually in the town, the Heathrow value might not seem so far off.
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its not hard to believe as far as I am concerned, tbh, I had a feeling the heatwave at the beginning of the month was just going to be a 3 day wonder in this fairly coolish summer so far imo ,
What I found hard to believe is we actually got to 30c
just so happens the pattern all came together just at the right time, a few thing fell into place , but this summer is being effected too much by the cool attlantic , there is a good chance even july could end up below the 81-2010 average for here anyway, that would be 3 months on the trot below average and I think the cool atlantic will have an effect on august, which have tented to be meh over the last several years
if the cool atlantic is going to be a long term trend, then I fear for our future summers, make the most of any rare heat is what I say , we are not going to get those hotter summers we keep getting lamented on since for ever it seems ... STILL waiting
Do you know what is causing this very cold pool of water? Is it ice melt from Greenland?
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34.5c Northolt
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The problem is with the torro site, is that it's not been updated for years. The October record of 29.9c set a few years back is nowhere to be seen. Does anyone know of a similar site which is updated regularly?
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However, October warmth often comes in the form of warm cloudy nights. Cool nights in April give way to warm sunny days (when we are lucky!).
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Lack of frost in Aberdeen is likely caused by sea surface temperatures around 2c above average. Very warm nights have been the theme in many coastal spots around the UK during September and early October, especially the south coast and south Wales.Second air frost this season -0.1c last night
See the weather in Aberdeen is dire as usual
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My local weather station (Lyneham) recorded 25mm in a recent thunderstorm so that ended our dry spell! It was intense rain resulting with people stuck in floodwater on a train. With lightening every 10 seconds for hours it was like a mid-summer storm.
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When I'm in my car, which has a thermometer reading on the dash (not very scientific I know!), I found it incredible the wide range of variation as I was driving around. On a long, regular commute route, I started to notice trends based on where I was. For example, on a cold night, there was a frost hollow which could knock 6c off the temperature. Also, again on a cold night, the temperature could rise 3c on driving between two lakes. The same lakes knocked 1-2c off on a warm day. I reckon it's easier to think of your garden as a slightly different micro-climate, than think there is something up with your readings.
Most official sites are in the middle of fields anyhow, so it's bound to be different in your potentiallysheltered garden.
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I've noticed the temperature forecasting anomaly for at least three months now. It tends to be 2-3c higher than forecast, mainly on fine days. I was starting to wonder if the met are trying to 'play it safe' - 2c higher is a pleasing bonus, whilst forecasting on the higher end, and it turning out 2c colder could lead to bad press and complaints.
Model output discussion - closing in on Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I have to agree with you as a fellow lurker. I'd find the thread even more interesting if it centered around a more reliable time frame of 3 to 7 days. As someone who isn't as weather intelligent as many on here, I'd find much more interest in discussions involving models that are closer in time and therefore more likely that one of them may actually happen. I'd take the benchmark for sensible discussion to be the 10 day trend the met office publish. They talk through the upcoming days and the uncertainty as days get further out. It is really interesting viewing, deepens my understanding, and doesn't focus too much energy on the day 10.