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richie3846

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  1. richie3846
    I'll just remind you that 17 people were killed by Eunice, and that was with a lot of people not going out. There's a statistical chance that if we all went out in big storms, more people would die for no reason other than trying to be brave or strong, trying to Impress, instead of authentic and smart.
  2. richie3846
    I've found it remarkable how close all the models have dealt with this storm. There have been discussions about the track, but in reality there's been very little disagreement between the main models. As the days have ticked by, the modelling has barely changed at all, in terms of pressure, position, and timing. All of the models could be wrong of course, there is still time for last minute changes which could throw everything off course I guess.
  3. richie3846
    I don't believe this is the case. What's changed in this graphic, to my eyes, is the rate of progress through the UK, and not the position. The second image has the low further west, suggesting a slightly later arrival than the first image. I believe the track is basically the same, and hasn't changed overnight, because it's been the case for a few days now, that the low enters via the Bristol Channel and moves sharply North East.
  4. richie3846
    Record low pressure of February 25th 1989 | Wanstead Meteo WANSTEADMETEO.COM The low pressure system that brought widespread rain and snow on Wednesday reminded me of another event where very low atmospheric pressure... If this document is correct, this is another notable low pressure, interesting that it happened only 16 months after the 1987 storm.
  5. richie3846
    Met Eireann forecast as 'massive bomb cyclone striking Ireland' with possible hurricane force winds - GalwayBeo WWW.GOOGLE.COM Storm Ciaran could cause a very 'severe threat' across Ireland bringing 'ten days of chaos' I see it's not just the UK that has a problem with tabloid coverage. The journalistic style is shocking in this article, IMO. It's written intentionally to sound as scary as possible, ensuring the spiciest words and phrases are carefully selected for maximum worry.
  6. richie3846
    My company didn't give us the day off for Eunice, even though we drive high sided vehicles, and work where there are trees also. I was day off anyway, felt really bad for my colleagues working through it. I'll be day in this time round, of it hits Thursday, I can't say I'm looking forward to that.
  7. richie3846
    Anyone reckon we'll see Thursday's storm named today? I'm expecting a broad sweep yellow warning to drop down later this morning. It looks like we are going to see a direct hit from a powerful Atlantic storm, with the models showing central pressure ranging from about 948 to 955mb, approximately.
  8. richie3846
    Trains are still cancelled at Swindon, including the main lines running between Swansea and Paddington. With the M4 shut yesterday because of a fatal accident, it really was an awful day for travelling in the area. There was quite a bit of disruption around the town and surrounding areas, I'm still a little bit annoyed we didn't even get a weather warning, when I had family snarled up in delays coming back from Cornwall, and separately, more family stranded half the day on train platforms trying to fight their way back to Swindon. Top marks for the train operators who paid for a taxi back for the last leg, and provided a food voucher to use in the café at Chippenham station. With a young baby and an older child in tow, I can only imagine what a nightmare day they must have had. There were quite a few local hotspots with flooding problems around the town. A quick check of local rain data, and we've received something like 11 inches in 35 days, compared to an average of around 2.5 to 3 inches. There is now a small area from Swindon to Oxford, roughly running along the A420 corridor, that has received exceptional rainfall over the last 35 days, with Babet adding another month's worth of rain. The met office didn't see fit to issue is a warning, which I'm still puzzled by. The ground is completely saturated, with fields in Oxfordshire now spilling their contents over the roads in places such as Challow near Wantage, on the A417, and other prone areas. It feels like we've been overlooked, and hope the met office get a bit sharper over the next couple of weeks, with more rain to come, and a potential storm later next week. The amount of rain in the area has been really exceptional for us, and now we are particularly vulnerable to even moderate rainfalls in the next few weeks, and will continue to be vulnerable until we get a couple of dry weeks to allow things to soak through the system.
  9. richie3846
    Heavy overnight rainfall floods town roads and BLOCKS ALL TRAINLINES WWW.SWINDONADVERTISER.CO.UK Roads have flooded across Swindon after heavy overnight rainfall as a result of Storm Babet. 50mm rain in 24h, and no weather warning? The ground is fully saturated in this area, and we've had another 35mm in a short few hours, flooding the railways for the second time in a week.
  10. richie3846
    Scottish Rainfall Data - provided by Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) WWW2.SEPA.ORG.UK Rainfall data for Scotland. I'll leave this link here for anyone interested in rainfall totals for this unusual storm.
  11. richie3846
    We've clocked up 20mm, on already well wetted ground. I suspect many others in southern England have enjoyed the same today. I suspect we could see an amber warning in the south, depending on the exact track, for Friday.
  12. richie3846
    There could be quite a bit more over the next 3 hours or so. I've noticed that rain from the south is often poorly modelled. It's often a case of radar watching.
  13. richie3846
    Hold your horses! The heavier stuff is about to land.
  14. richie3846
    They are probably sorting through the detail as we speak, for England. Give them another half hour, I think we'll have our warnings in place.
  15. richie3846
    I'd think they'll also issue southern England - Friday now has substantial rain, further West than was thought yesterday. These warnings reflect soil moisture, and many areas are wetter than average for the time of year.
  16. richie3846
    As a Welshman, I'm now highly offended by this. . What I meant was that the naming is mainly because of impacts in Scotland this time round. Without the heavier rain in Scotland, I doubt it would be named because of yellow warnings in England.
  17. richie3846
    Thanks for this link, it's really interesting. The authors indicate that this information may not be reflected in current climate models, and may impact regional climate modelling as a result. Reading between the lines, perhaps our UK climate modelling is not accurate at all, because a north shifted jet may not be in the modelling. This study throws a spanner in the works for anyone who thinks that climate science is 'settled'. A phrase I've heard used more than once. Changes in the position of the jets, may have an enormous impact on large populations, especially in Europe where many people live with the ever changing jet position, day in day out. 40 years is a really short timescale, so who knows if this information is a reflection of what may happen next.
  18. richie3846
    In England? I thought the main job was over Eastern Scotland The amber warning appears the reflect this reality, that the east of Scotland is quite dry normally
  19. richie3846
    I don't think we need yellow warnings at all. Dump those, and simply go straight in at amber when required.
  20. richie3846
    Warm sea anomalies where the storm is tracking at the moment. No wonder there's a lot of rain due for some.
  21. richie3846
    So this is really confusing to my pea brain . If there is some sort of wind, even if it's not that strong, heavy rain on amber triggers a name, while even heavier rain, with slightly less wind, simply because it's not around a cyclone, isn't named. There could even be a situation where stronger wind not around a cyclone, with heavy rain doesn't get a warning, and less wind around a cyclone, with the same rain, gets a warning. No wonder people are confused by it all.
  22. richie3846
    So any amber without a cyclone, or with a cyclone?
  23. richie3846
    It does appear that the Met Office have moved their own goalposts this year. I'm convinced that in the early days of naming, it was cut and dried, an amber wind warning was the trigger for naming.
  24. richie3846
    I'm pretty sure in the US, they label all types of bad weather as a storm. Maybe that's the way to go, who knows. The OP has a valid point here, just because there wasn't a cyclone, anyone under 7 inches of rain would probably consider it a substantial rain storm. If storms are only cyclones then why the holy hell do we use the word storm for more than cyclones? It's really confusing. Thunderstorms, what are they then lol? I think my brain is going to explode
  25. richie3846
    What I noticed in the last named storm, is people don't actually bother to look if it's in their area or not. So then when we didn't have storm locally, people kept saying to me 'I thought we were having a storm, and nothing happened'. The idea isn't really working, because people simply hear there is a named storm and don't understand enough to be able to grasp the nettle that the whole of the UK isn't uniformly affected. This may mean, when there is an actual storm somewhere, people don't bother taking it seriously because they haven't understood the whole system, and may feel like there have been too many wolf cries, when in fact it's simply down to ignorance on their part. Actual storms over inland areas are really quite rare, so this whole storm naming thing is daft really, as mostly it's coastal areas affected, generally speaking. A few 55mph, maybe one 60mph gust isn't really a storm inland, and that's what we typically max out at, in places such as where I live.
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