legritter

If an easterly is going to develope which was hinted at yesterday on the postage stamps and other data available i think it would be wise to wait for a few more days looking to see if its still showing .but must admit the vortex is all over the place with chunks heading out of the arctic at different points in the northern Hemisphere .todays ecm a little better but Gfs is giving us NO comfort at the moment .Lets see what Met office update hints at as they have info we dont always see at their disposal ,but probably they will side with caution . so a day of scraping around but dont be tempted to reach for Prozack or blades as tonight at 7PM it all could flip the other way .

The last 3 frames of ECM could very easily look different come 24hrs ,possibly 12 .if a beast is out there it could be a few days yet before we see its snout .At least high pressure is out there and todays data was looking good so lets not give up yet .We cannot expect models to perform at this range in such UNKNOWN territory which is constantly changing .i think the next clue will come in tomorrows met brief in further outlook ,or that could just remain the same ,Have faith ,good synoptics for coldies take a while to Mature .

if an easterly influenced pattern does set up ,it could disappear for xmas and come back again after ,there are so many options on the possibility side that it becomes mind Numbing and Prozack territory ,all very interesting and if it does come to fruition a fantastic forum discussion with loads of IMBY and Pram wars .so tonights ECM will be the one to watch ,only a thousand tickets for tonights show available ,booking recommended .JOE Laminate next i fear .

Yes it would be nice for a block to set up to our north or n /east ,and just going by current Model output and Data we are in with a shout .but let us not get our hopes up too high as its always a big fall if the pattern sets up wrong .many more runs needed and plenty of patience ,but very comforting that its still only early days yet .lets hope tonights ECM firms up and Gfs becomes more consistent ,No STella runs just consistent day by day ,oh that would be nice ,STELLAS all round .

Its not a staight forward case of the Met office coming on board IF the ECM shows a possible easterly setting up over the following runs ,on their data and charts that we dont see If an easterly is possible going by their data they will gradually ease it into the extended outlook as the days go on .Yes easterlies resulting from a descent high to our n/east dont happen much but with the right conditions can deliver big time .And going by tonights charts and other data i would say theres a fair chance of a scandy or northern europe high setting up .Take a long look at the monthly outlook from today ,and basically after 15 days they will not commit to anything ,We can only use the modells as a tool not a crystal ball ,ITs one hell of an Atmosphere up there with things going on we have little Knowledge on ,although we are starting to learn in this modern age with computers .so taking ECM and to some extent GFS They are Sniffing at something ,so we can discuss the possibilitys of an easterly because its there in the output .And this is only Day 2 ,Bring out the STellas .

Afternoon ,Going by todays data info i think that looking at the day 10 plus weather prospects will be a Minefield .things next week could quickly slide into many possible synoptic possibilitys .i still reckon thurs /sat could turn up some surprises .certainly a great time for learning about forecasting and computer models .

Good moaning all ,The models in my opinion will always have a hard time getting even the general pressure pattern right out at 8/10 days .theres going to be times when its fairly right but more not .as i said yesterday i dont quite buy into a large pressure rise in the Scandy area quite yet ,But hey Presto its there on the modells .so if its going to happen we need to see several more runs before we can start Dreaming of what Could be .As for this thurs/Sat we could see some surprises i still feel .,Gfs is churning out now and i.v no idea what its showing as i would lose my Post if i looked ,Learning slowly on computer but enjoying NET Weather ,best forum around ,cheers all ,

OK ,this evenings outputs are hinting at a slightly shorter period of northerly winds ,but this could easily flip back come tomorrows Model runs .And still the potential there for some surprises come later Thursday .Quite often when high pressure sets up in winter it can meander around and is hard to forecast ,indeed if it comes in slightly later to whats showing on tonights ECM and keeps further North west that could change things for the better from a coldies view .so it still looks like we are in the firing line for an arctic blast ,probably followed by cold temp under high pressure .i am not quite yet buying the possibility of high pressure setting up over the far north west of Europe Scandy high etc ,As some Models are suggesting but i will come on board when all models show this in the more reliable. It certainly is a very exciting time and many of us are going to learn an awfull lot this season ,and thats what we are all here for ,plus the odd freebee ,STella ,cheers all .

Steady on folks ,its early days yet still days away lets wait for Ecm and tonights Fax ,but i must admit things are all over the place with many options available ,im certainly not going to take anything for granted but interesting model watching all the same .

GFS current run ,i half expected this ,lets see what the next half hour brings ,tonights ECM and MET far more important i think ,plenty of twists yet as its all still 96 hrs away ,fingers crossed

Yes plenty of possibilitys thurs to saturday ,if it all comes off there will be good events not even on the radar yet .very pleased with todays ECM and our friend GFS ,we all knew the little rascal would turn up trumps ,but probably plenty of prozack moments and STella runs yet to come .Certainly a good week for New learners to pop into the learning area ,take note of updated charts and especially Fax charts .well tonights ECM and Met office critical but there again i think every run lately seems critical ,lets all enjoy and learn from each other .Perhaps the Russian express next to take on the Atlantic ,as some longer range charts are hinting at ,cheers

Certainly a better run tonight from GFS but still v big differences at same time frames .and it does not take much time for a cool down of northern and central Europe with the right pressure pattern .,but i think we can close this Autumn tonight gang with a big celebration for us Model watchers ,uncle frosty will be dishing out the stellas in the morning after the morning runs ,All to play for ONE HOUR TO GO , What will the winter bring ,

Its going to be a Long Hard Winter ....... MODEL WATCHING , today as been a rollercoaster but light at the end of the tunnel ,plenty more tunnels ahead lets hope we meet the siberian express along the way .it will be very interesting to see what GFS comes up with tonight ,but im waiting till 10.45 to find out ,if ecm comes off it will be a good start for us coldies ,cheers gang catch you all up later ,

Looking at most modells and Data we can say a pretty good chance of wintry conditions moving South across the uk next Thursday .As for detail broadly we need to get much nearer the event ,so at this stage i would say if it all comes off many surprises could be had especially IF any northerly stays intact for a couple of days ,of course usual places would fair better but dont forget about Undercuts and many other synoptic surprises .GFS now churning out but i wont look till 4.45 pm when complete .and remember at this range 120hrs plus alot can change for worse or good .

Just a few thoughts of mine looking at current charts data and looking into other forums in northern hemisphere ,and looking at current temp in northern latitudes .i think the outlook over n/west europe including the UK is heading for a very interesting time weatherwise and forecasting wise .any new posters ,people new to modell watching ,make sure you pop into the learning area ,and remember to ask questions if not sure about some of the terms used .in interesting times like now dont forget The Fax charts ,which you can learn about from many sources .and enjoy .

Many happy posters tonight ,but we need a little bit of support from tomorrows runs with no big downgrades ,no big Stella runs just steady as we go .with a bit of luck and i think we are moving in the right direction, this cold[ Period ]could deliver for some and if synoptics set up just right some surprises which at this range remain a mystery .Dont get too down if high pressure is modeled to be very close in later stages of the runs this can always set up in a favourable position later .so lets enjoy the ride ,Razors prozack and straws at the ready .

Perhaps a major pattern change is on the cards for some northern hemisphere locations ,it could very well be taking place as we ponder our charts ,theres plenty of cold air in northern latitudes and i think we are in a good position to tap into some of that .Looking at ECM out till 10 days certainly looks to me that we will get a cold shot ,but at this range past 7/8 days i feel will constantly change ,going by past good cold synoptics the end charts in that set up are always changing and will keep us on our toes .as for GFS i find this a usefull modell to show us the variouse possibilitys out there .Its a shame uk met only give us 144 hrs maximum ,but you can read from daily updates looking out till 15 days for possible clues etc .our hobby is frustrating but very interesting with very good posters who have plenty of knowledge and share it on our top rated forum .but we must not forget that meteorology is not an exact science and 15 days a head forecasting is pushing big time in my opinion .roll on tonights runs could be a good one ,cheers

Well a good start to the day on ecm ,it will be interesting to see what todays GFS throws up .just a few adjustments here and there could bring us some early winter Candy ,But as i said yesterday lets hopefully see steady consistent charts rather than Stella runs only to finish up down the drain ,

Well what a difference at 252 hours goes to show how complex this modell watching is ,nearly 20 plus millibars different on one run .but that high at the end of the run it just jumps strait into our lap.perhaps it will bounce and cartwheel north east and stick around .bed calls so heres to a good day tomorrow .

Im hiding behind sofa ,i,ll wait till 7pm ,this chicken as teath

ok ,not the sort of GFS run coldies would wont to see ,but at this range the next run could be totally different by miles and anyhow that low to our n/west could dive s/east .Lets wait till the ECM comes out later for a fuller picture ,i would love for a Stella run but would just prefer some constant build up in good synoptics .So keep the faith ,no throwing in the towell ,take a deep breath its always going to be a rollercoaster ,and there is some seriouse cold waiting in the wings ,and theres always tomorrow in this Game ..

Plenty of interest and possible outcomes next week ,i for one totally enjoy any charts data summarys that are posted by any poster ,the best forum in northern hemisphere by far .so going by current charts it looks like some fun and games later next week ,beyond that it all depends where any high pressure sets up ,but hey things are looking up ,and come tonight it could be even better .

Morning Gang ,just crawled out of bed and some nice charts to set me up for the day .this is what i like and even if its only short cold blasts ,they CAN DELIVER IF SYNOPTICS ARE OK .all eyes now on tonights runs to see if consistancy creeps in with our hunt for that magical four letter word ,I half expect a big Ramp from FROSTY soon ,catch you all up later .

Yes i tend to use Gfs as a trend setter ,but of course at the 10/15 day range its usually a different synoptic situation every run .on the face of it in this moment in time looking at current models and Data it looks like a cold plunge Friday and Saturday then high pressure again and later next week something with a bit more meat on the bones ,and very tantalising but at 9/10 days many eventual outcomes are yet possible .

Certainly some good looking frames on GFS lets hope it continues ,steady as she goes rather than Mega one day, gone the next .Just need a good ECM run and i would like to see that Vortex being smashed up a bit ,all eyes on the ECM and looking forward to FROSTYS thoughts ,perhaps the Models are getting in the Winter mood .