[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

We have had Football, cricket ,bones ,now burnt  sausages in baps with brown sauce. I woke up at 5am and saw Gfs run ,yikes  ,just got up again and ECM to the rescue , by late tonight GFS will be king again ,great forum gang, the advance guard of winter is on its way , cheers .

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

Hi gang ,i study the charts every day, i also use the Met office update to get a mental vision of their thinking, todays update is good reading .Looking forward to tonights charts ,hope someone can help Lord Grogon out with the request .whats posters thoughts on the possible evolution with the low pressure sinking south nxt week , im hoping we can all or most of us get cold air undercutting the trough with a good amount of precipitation, boxing day 1962 type would be great ,but not quite the same synoptics i know ,we can all dream .cheers gang ,sausage baps are back on tbe menu if ECM joins the party . 

 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The journey to an easterly is a long one, as long as it gets here before the year is out lol

Knowing our luck it will arrive in December 2021 ,long fetch easterly with mild muck from Europe. But seriously i think our time this year is looking very promising, we need patience, but im not getting excited just yet , Ecm this morning was good, gfs also getting there, so hopefully come Monday night the fax chart s should look very wintry for the end of the week fri/Saturday. No sausages  for baps ,so cooking up some bacon , brilliant forum , catch you all at 7pm tonight ,. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Whats going on ,im stuck behind the Sofa ,dogs going crazy muttering ecm ,is it a good run so far , keep the good posts coming gang catch you all up later cheers .

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Hi gang ,ecm this morning showing higher pressure at around 192hrs gradually appearing to our far north .just hope this is what uk met were mentioning yesterday .cant post charts at  the moment as I'm cooking sausages ready for ME  Baps , keep the faith gang and keep the good posts coming ,cheers . 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Yes a very good update from the professionals ,will we see some good wintry charts appearing over the coming days .hope all of us get to see some snow even low levels , must be carefull what we wish for in this time of war (virus ) you can compare many things now as they were 1939 /40 plus of course the weather which i think was censored to an extent, would be very hard to cover up  these days ,ps ,great forum ,knowledgable people ,let the big hunt commence gang , sausage baps all round cheers .

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Light snow at 1c ,its come back all in 14 hours , nice to see ,im on west mendip winscom. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

And possibly here in the south ,weekend, not seen Ecm yet so will look later .cheerz gang ,quiet on here this morning. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Well we may not have deep cold at the moment but we do have Storm Christoph named .and by the looks of it a threat of Snow further south with time ,but flooding a seriously to be taken warning .Fax charts to the ready ,take care gang and enjoy the charts , cheers .

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Hi gang  , just a gut feeling but i think Ecm tonight could improve past 168hrs ,high pressure west of Greenland could aid us in the uk ,im hoping sometime today gfs will give us a Stonking run .All very interesting, think we could all do with a good old fashioned Scandinavia high ,and low pressure parked to our south , let me know if you find a chart showing this and I'll cook you sausage baps on your doorstep ,wearing a mask and social distancing and i have hand sanitizer by the bucket .Some interest now on our charts for Saturday, stay strong , please keep safe and enjoy our tough hobby ,cheers . 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Hi Gang ,I've just scanned the internet, have we a storm possibly called Christoph being named .or will that possibly be named if met office decide. An amazing week of synoptics , Come on Ecm ,Fax charts will be a good guide to whats in store ,right I'm going behind the Sofa, the dog can read the charts ,cheers gang ,Great Posts  best Forum around ,the hunt is on ,Stellas all round .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

51 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Given your location legritter, I'd be inclined to pitch a tent up at Crooks Peak if it's snow you're after the way things are going on

Yes quite often in these possible synoptics there's Snow up there, lets hope we can get some upgrades over the coming days from the charts cheers .

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Looking at charts and reading around various sites etc and going by very volatile output we are heading for a very serious spell of wintry weather .copious rain ,gales ,sleet SNOW , a Fair CHANCE of snow even at lower levels, yet to be forecast because of the range involved, im liking the  thought of disturbances approaching the UK later this week, but this is 5 to 6 days away ,so fingers crossed for the particular area you live in ,think its going to be a postcode Lottery on this one With BS25 in the sweetspot !!! .so no Beest yet ,but Snow chances for many going by current output. Squirrels darting about in the garden chattering to themselves something about SLIders , local Donkey muttered theres a 510 dam coming , a fair Ecm earlier, gfs well another wind up coming in 3 hour's time , take care all ,and yes sausage bap brown sauce and Stellas on me , . 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

my fridge magnet of Michael fish just fell off the fridge ,somethings a foot , fax chart for Thursday just updated .can someone get lucky nxt weekend, best of luck for all cheers ,stay safe and enjoy our hobby .

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Just updated ,but no change .I take that as good ,on now with tonights runs ,fingers crossed .

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't see deep cold in this update.

Any heavy snow chances appear to be due to evaporative cooling in marginal upper air scenarios as opposed to entrenched deep cold. Snow likely melting quickly after it stops.

Basically, hit and miss like the last few weeks

Yes i agree to a point ,but with a bit of luck it could bring snow falling and possibly settling for a while , and we have the possibility of sudden changes to the synoptics at this range ,all eyes now on tonights charts , best of luck to all posters on your snow chances , this week and next ,cheers Legritter. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Yes a  good outlook for next week ,we have a ticket to colder temp and possibly some Snow ,no change yet on the period 26th onwards , but i suppose at that range thats pointless and will probably get written in tomorrow. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Lets chill out gang ,very good possibilities are lurking just over the horizon  ,no guarantee but im excited, and so is my dog , sausage baps brown sauce ,and STELLAs on me ,at this range details of 850s and will it SNOW will always be unknown, but something is afoot, Squirrel s are going crazy up the woods , take care all and keep the good posts coming ,cheers .

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, it might well look like a developing 'West-based NAO', but does that always matter: the HP is plenty strong enough to push the jet stream away to the south, and with that deep cold block over Europe, a series of 'channel-runners' would be a good bet? All out in La La Land anyway!

    

Does anyone know what the NAO was, in 1947? Because whatever it was, it was kind enough to allow a succession of snow-making Atlantic depressions to cross the very south of the UK --  for an entire month!

Not sure about the NAO ,but plenty of v low 850s ,and trough s  a plenty ,my late uncle retired met office, told me that features popped up at very short notice ,6cm snow per hour for 4hrs quite often, and crystal clear sky at 10pm only to get up at 7am to 15cm snow ,that was the bristol area ,biggest fall of snow 3/4 march roughly ,we can only hope but we do have a ticket cheers gang .

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Gfs is having snow chains fitted, plus a few more gaskets  ,as its going to go boom at 192 hrs ,get the sausage baps out ,and stock up ,cheers STellas on me .

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Thanks for replying Mountain Shadow, great forum this , cheers .

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Any thoughts on todays exeter update , seems to be a repeat of sundays .cheers .

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Yes  good update , i think some good charts will appear very soon , think the main areas of interest is where high pressure will be situated 7/8 days from now , bring it on ,cheers .

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Very hard call for nxt thursday friday, 7/8th .Fax charts come tuesday could produce the goods , could be some happy people , past nxt weekend i think many models will struggle, lets hope tonights ECM will be a cold one .cheers .

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Snow falling in bristol ,temp as dropped to 0c ,light covering ,will those showers further north reach here ,im isolating in a warm house with my partner till my heating at home is sorted, nice to see those fluffy flakes cheers .